No war,no peace

The armed conflict over crude petroleum oil in the Niger Delta has raged for several decades. A host of peace initiatives have been adopted by the Nigerian state to address it, but with minimal impact. The amnesty offer to repentant militias in 2009 by President Umaru Yar'Adua's administration is one of the most recent and broadest peace initiatives by the Nigerian government intended to end the general tendency to warfare and the absence of peace in the Niger Delta. This article, based on secondary sources of data, examines the components of the amnesty, its critical problems and their implications for peacebuilding in the Niger Delta. It finds that though the programme has engendered relative peace, the issues and grievances that occasioned the general tendency to warfare and absence of peace in the region – such as inequitable distribution of oil revenue, environmental degradation, and underdevelopment – are not properly articulated in the disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration components of the programme. Thus, it holds that the prevailing situation in the region largely approximates a swinging pendulum of no war, no peace.     

Nothing fails like success: The London Ambassadors’ Conference and the coming of the First World War

During the July Crisis Britain’s foreign secretary, Sir Edward Grey, focused on organising a conference through which differences could be reconciled. After the war, he maintained that Germany’s unwillingness to join this conference was one of the immediate causes of war. This essay disputes Grey’s contention, arguing that his plans for a conference, based on a misleading analogy to the previous Balkan Crises, actually helped facilitate the outbreak of war in 1914 by sanctioning inaction in the first phase of the crisis (28 June–22 July) and by tacitly encouraging Russian mobilisation in the second phase (23 July–4 August).     

Slow failure: Understanding America’s quagmire in Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

The United States government has no organised way of thinking about war termination other than seeking decisive military victory. This implicit assumption is inducing three major errors. First, the United States tends to select military-centric strategies that have low probabilities of success. Second, the United States is slow to modify losing or ineffective strategies due to cognitive obstacles, internal frictions, and patron-client challenges with the host nation government. Finally, as the U.S. government tires of the war and elects to withdraw, bargaining asymmetries prevent successful transitions (building the host nation to win on its own) or negotiations.     

National restrictions in multinational military operations: A conceptual framework

Recent scholarship in security studies has started to explore the causes and consequences of various forms of national restrictions in multinational military operations (MMOs). This article makes a conceptual contribution to this literature by developing a theoretical framework of national restrictions in MMOs that distinguishes between structural, procedural, and operational restrictions. I argue that these types of restrictions are governed by different causal mechanisms. Structural restrictions are relatively stable over time and effect deployment decisions irrespective of other factors. Procedural restrictions, on the other hand, can constitute veto points against deployment only in combination with distinct political preferences. Finally, operational restrictions directly affect the rules of engagement of troop contributing countries. The article illustrates the three types of restrictions and their interaction with empirical examples from a range of countries and sketches their impact on MMO deployment decisions and mandates.     

Honour,Comradeship and Betrayal: Lord Capel’s Sword

The sword which is the subject of this article and which will be referred to as the Capel sword, is a fine example of what has become known as an Irish basket-hilt. Whilst there are other examples in existence, what makes this sword unique and particularly important is the fact that it is known to have been owned by two important Royalist military leaders, Lord Arthur Capel and Sir John Owen. These two extraordinary men came from different backgrounds but their fate was linked through circumstances beyond their control. The story this sword tells is one of comradeship, loyalty, total belief in a cause, betrayal and ultimate sacrifice.     

战略战役兵棋系统中的被动声纳探测仿真

针对海战反潜作战实际,结合战略战役兵棋特点,设计了被动声纳探测仿真流程框架。为模拟探测时间的随机性,提出了被动声纳探测时间模型,并确立了探测时间与探测噪声的关系方程。从舰艇声源特性和战场环境对噪声传播的影响两方面考虑,建立了舰艇声源方程和噪声传播模型。最后,在某模拟系统上进行了验证,结果表明模型符合战略战役模拟实际。     

猎击时敏目标的作战机理分析

美军在第二次对伊战争中,以比第一次对伊战争少得多的兵力,更短的准备时间和更少的消耗取得了更大的胜利,对比两次对伊战争中所用的兵器,坦克、主战飞机、战车、轻兵器等主战装备基本还是上次对伊战争的旧兵器,最大的变化是无人机的大量使用,情报系统、战术网络的提升,使战斗能力有极大的提高,这种由系统整合、提升信息化能力、改进指挥控制所产生的作战效能的提升是显著和有效的,代表发展战争潜力的方向。文中以美军对伊战争中主要的作战样式——打击时敏目标为作战想定,建立作战系统猎击时敏目标作战效能模型,对影响作战系统效能的各种因素作定量的分析,揭示作战效能提升的机理。     

从孙子兵法角度审视目标中心战的制胜机制

基于体系对抗的战争特点和我军作战实际情况,提出的目标中心战是现代作战思想的一次凝练及升华。它的制胜机制表现为三个层面：通过选择关键作战目标,提升体系对抗效能;通过影响目标系统功能,谋求局部对抗优势;通过融合体系要素,提高整体对抗能力。     

电子战条件下飞机敏感性分析及其减缩技术

介绍了电子战和飞机生存力及敏感性的内涵,构建了飞机敏感性量化评价指标层次体系。定性分析了电子干扰对雷达探测概率和导弹脱靶距离标准差的影响,并以算例说明了干扰效能的增大会引起导弹制导精度的降低和脱靶距离的增大,从而得出:电子干扰对飞机的敏感性和生存概率有重要的影响。引入了干扰效能因子的概念,并分析了将干信比J/S作为一种干扰效能因子考虑的可行性及优点。最后给出了降低飞机敏感性的电子战措施。