网络战中的安全主动防护系统构想

根据网络战的要求,提出了一种网络安全主动防护系统,该系统把一种新型防火墙和网络监测系统结合起来,做到了对黑客入侵及病毒攻击的实时监测、捕获和主动防护,克服了传统网络防护系统的不足,如能开发研制,将有利于我军在未来的网络战中取得主动地位。     

基于两级供应关系的军械战备器材存储模型研究

提出了在一定经费的约束条件下,使所有二级存储场站的所有战备器材期望缺货数最小的模型,通过对后方仓库存量初值和场站库存量的确定,求解出后方仓库和场站之间库存量的优化分配调整方案。最后通过实例得出发散型布局形态模型。     

直升机攻潜时的接近航向

直升机攻潜策略是反潜战中值得研究的一个问题。研究攻潜策略实质是确定最优投雷点,即直升机的最优接近航向和投雷时刻。本文研究的结果是:如果目标作等速直线运动,则直升机的最优接近策略为平行接近法。     

The mother of all post-mortems

The most striking finding of the Chilcot Report is that the record reveals little that was previously unknown. A key point for its authors is that diplomatic alternatives had not been exhausted when the US and UK went to war. But, short of an armed attack by the other side, it is hard to say when they would have been. Here what was crucial was the belief shared by Bush and Blair that Saddam Hussain would not and could not change. For the British the issue of whether alternatives to war remained is particularly important because of its implications for international law, something that did not trouble the Americans. It remains unclear if Blair would have gained or lost leverage over Bush had he made British participation contingent on better American policy, for example on developing a workable plan for the reconstruction of Iraq.     

Two kinds of catastrophe: nuclear escalation and protracted war in Asia

China’s expanding strength and ambition may foreshadow a violent conflict with the United States. I describe two scenarios about how such a conflict would unfold. The article begins by examining the prospects for nuclear escalation, drawing on theories about politics, psychology, and inadvertent escalation. It then examines the prospects for protracted conventional war, a scenario that has received far less attention. I present a new theory of protraction based on technology, geography, and domestic politics. After assessing the logic of both scenarios against a hypothetical US–China conflict, I discuss which is more likely. The conclusion points to a sobering trade-off: efforts to avoid nuclear catastrophe increase the chance of a long and grueling fight.     

The Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (1996–2001): ‘War-Making and State-Making’ as an Insurgency Strategy

This paper examines the institutional and functional aspects of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA). The Taliban’s coercive approach and its entire reliance on “war-making” to “state-making” shows the difficulty of the transformation of an insurgent group into a state structure. The Taliban was primarily capable of establishing a two-track system of governance. However, the assessment of the IEA’s institutional and functional capabilities shows that the military–political organization formed by the Taliban lacked statehood in all three areas of legitimacy, authority and capacity.     

The Rationality of Serb Leaders in the Bosnian War

This paper asks whether Bosnian Serb leaders’ choice to carry out a secession war in 1992–1995 was rational from the point of view of their stated goal of ethnic cleansing. We construct two indexes, one of ethnic purity and another of ethnic Serb concentration, and apply them to a counterfactual estimate of the outcome of ‘peaceful’ ethnic cleansing – what could have been achieved by population exchange based on pre-war territorial Serb power without war – in comparison to the actual outcome of the war. We find that the gross benefits of the chosen strategy of secession and war far exceed anything that could be achieved by the peaceful alternative. A conjectural assessment of perceived costs suggests that also net benefits were maximized by the war strategy. The implication for international deterrence policy is that credible judicial prosecution and punishment is the best way to alter the prospective perpetrators’ calculus.     

高技术条件下的装备保障

通过分析研究高技术条件下装备保障的特点,概要阐述了外军装备保障的发展趋势,重点分析了我军装备保障的现状和发展中存在的问题,提出了装备保障发展的建设性意见.     

现代战争中电子战装备及作战特点

以科索沃战争为背景 ,叙述了电子装备的使用和战术运用情况 ,并分析了战争中电子战的作战形式及特点 ,指出了应吸取的教训