基于概率图模型的海上多目标跟踪

针对海上复杂环境中多运动目标跟踪问题,提出了一种融合概率图模型和粒子滤波的跟踪方法.该方法采用二元马尔可夫随机场构建多目标模型,利用势函数表示其联合概率分布,最后用变差分法和粒子滤波推理后验概率密度.通过二阶回归模型准确构建状态转移方程,以及Mean-Shift迭代加速粒子采样,提高了算法精确度和运行效率.实验表明:该方法能很好地实现海上复杂环境中的多目标实时跟踪.     

三相逆变器新型积分控制加状态反馈控制

三相逆变器在实际运行中,不平衡负载工况较为常见,原因是传统积分控制加状态反馈控制无法实现三相输出电压的对称性。针对该问题提出了不平衡负载条件下三相逆变器新型积分控制加状态反馈控制策略,并通过仿真和实验验证了该策略能有效降低不平衡负载时三相逆变器输出电压的不平衡度,从而获得对称的三相输出电压波形。     

环管型燃烧室喷雾燃烧DES模拟

为研究燃气轮机燃烧室内复杂的两相三维湍流燃烧问题,采用基于Realizable k-ε模型的分离涡模拟(DES)方法对环管型燃烧室进行喷雾燃烧数值模拟.数值模拟结果表明:DES模拟在燃烧区发挥出大涡模拟(LES)的作用,能获取结构复杂的流场、温度场和涡量场,其对流场内涡结构的捕捉和分辨能力明显强于传统的RANS(雷诺时均N-S方法)模拟.与实验数据对比发现,DES模拟所得燃烧产物含量和燃烧室出口温度分布更符合.因此,DES方法可用于复杂形状燃烧室的燃烧数值模拟,能够避免RANS模型对湍流脉动进行平均处理导致耗散过大、抹平涡结构的缺点,从而可获取更准确的计算结果.     

Initiating insurgencies abroad: French plans to ‘chouannise’ Britain and Ireland, 1793–1798

Secret French plans to launch guerrilla-style raids on the British Isles devised in the spring of 1796 were referred to as ‘chouanneries’. The name and concept behind these small-war operations were modelled on the irregular tactics used by the Chouan rebels in the Vendée, which the French state army had brutally quashed, but some wished to transfer into their institutional practice. Part of France's ongoing military strategy in the war against Britain, which included fomenting insurrection in Ireland, these irregular operations were to be manned partially by pardoned deserters and released convicts and prisoners of war. Of these, only Tate's brief invasion of Wales in 1797 was realised, but the surviving plans provide insightful historical lessons into an Anglophobic mindset shared by a small network of practitioners and policy deciders on the effectiveness of such shock and awe tactics. Largely motivated by the desire to take revenge for Britain's support of counter-revolutionaries in the Vendée, these plans could more aptly be referred to as counter-‘chouanneries’.     

Impact of reseller's and sales agent's forecasting accuracy in a multilayer supply chain

We consider a three‐layer supply chain with a manufacturer, a reseller, and a sales agent. The demand is stochastically determined by the random market condition and the sales agent's private effort level. Although the manufacturer is uninformed about the market condition, the reseller and the sales agent conduct demand forecasting and generate private demand signals. Under this framework with two levels of adverse selection intertwined with moral hazard, we study the impact of the reseller's and the sales agent's forecasting accuracy on the profitability of each member. We show that the manufacturer's profitability is convex on the reseller's forecasting accuracy. From the manufacturer's perspective, typically improving the reseller's accuracy is detrimental when the accuracy is low but is beneficial when it is high. We identify the concrete interrelation among the manufacturer‐optimal reseller's accuracy, the volatility of the market condition, and the sales agent's accuracy. Finally, the manufacturer's interest may be aligned with the reseller's when only the reseller can choose her accuracy; this alignment is never possible when both downstream players have the discretion to choose their accuracy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 207–222, 2014     

Stochastic framework for partially degradation systems with continuous component degradation‐rate‐interactions

Many conventional models that characterize the reliability of multicomponent systems are developed on the premise that for a given system, the failures of its components are independent. Although this facilitates mathematical tractability, it may constitute a significant departure from what really takes place. In many real‐world applications, system components exhibit various degrees of interdependencies, which present significant challenges in predicting degradation performance and the remaining lifetimes of the individual components as well as the system at large. We focus on modeling the performance of interdependent components of networked systems that exhibit interactive degradation processes. Specifically, we focus on how the performance level of one component affects the degradation rates of other dependent components. This is achieved by using stochastic models to characterize how degradation‐based sensor signals associated with the components evolve over time. We consider “Continuous‐Type” component interactions that occur continuously over time. This type of degradation interaction exists in many applications, in which interdependencies occur on a continuum. We use a system of stochastic differential equations to capture such “Continuous‐Type” interaction. In addition, we utilize a Bayesian approach to update the proposed model using real‐time sensor signals observed in the field and provide more accurate estimation of component residual lifetimes. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 286–303, 2014     

基于星历辅助的导航星座星间链路捕获初始信息求解算法

针对星间链路信号动态范围大、捕获时间要求短之间的矛盾,提出了一种捕获初始信息的求解算法。该算法基于导航星座的星历资源和动态特性,采用迭代的方法对信号传输时延和多普勒频率进行估计。分析指出,该算法实现过程简单,收敛速度快,估计精度高,两次迭代即可实现时延估计精度达到纳秒级,大大降低了捕获实现的难度和复杂度,适合星上资源要求比较严格的场合。分析基于北斗导航星座模型展开,对我国北斗导航星间链路的设计提供了参考。     

惯组动态测试台误差分析及附加运动补偿算法

为了完成惯组的高精度、大动态测试任务,基于Gough-Stewart平台设计了电动六自由度惯组动态测试台。建立了系统的误差模型并分析了电动缸长度误差对系统精度的影响,分析了电动缸在惯组动态测试台运动过程中产生的被动螺旋附加运动,并对该运动补偿算法进行了研究。对被动螺旋附加运动产生的误差进行量化分析,结果表明,被动螺旋附加运动对惯组动态测试台的位姿精度存在非常显著的影响。为了消除该影响,编制了补偿算法,并将其应用于惯组动态测试台的实时控制系统中。实验结果表明,经过算法补偿后,惯组动态测试台的位姿精度达到了设计指标要求。     

火箭弹卷弧尾翼的轻量化研究

针对火箭弹卷弧尾翼在特定气动载荷下的轻量化问题,基于结构动力学理论,依托ABAQUS非线性有限元软件,建立了火箭弹卷弧尾翼的有限元模型。通过对比碳纤维复合材料(CFRP)和合金钢材料的卷弧尾翼的有限元分析,得出了碳纤维复合材料在满足强度和刚度的要求下,使卷弧尾翼减重达80%。该方法为火箭弹卷弧尾翼的轻量化设计提供了一种参考和借鉴。     

具有不完全信息语言多指标电子对抗计划优选方法

针对指标权重信息不完全且指标值为语言评价信息的电子对抗行动计划优选问题,给出了一种新的决策分析方法。首先建立并规范化了电子对抗行动计划的评价指标;其次给出了计划的优选步骤,其核心是通过计算理想点与计划值的距离、建立线性规划模型,确定指标权重;将语言评价信息转化为三角模糊数,相应地建立可能度,进而获得计划的综合评价值。最后通过算例分析说明了该方法的合理性和有效性。