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排序方式: 共有743条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
631.
分析了贝叶斯网络建模过程中的缺陷,结合物元理论,提出了物元贝叶斯网络理论.该理论能够融合二者的优点,既可处理复杂系统中的不确定性,又能充分利用系统中的所有信息,因此能够更好地进行复杂系统评价. 相似文献
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运用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析法对舰船生命力进行了综合评判,建立了在不同设计方案中的优选模型,并以舰艇动力系统的设计为例,运用GRA对其进行优化选型。结果分析表明,此方法简单易行,结果准确可靠,可为系统设计方案的选优提供理论依据。 相似文献
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针对属性权重完全未知的混合型多属性决策问题,提出一种基于前景理论和证据推理的决策方法。通过直觉模糊数对精确数、区间数和语言变量3种混合型属性的决策信息进行统一,根据前景理论对决策信息进行转化;提出基于直觉模糊熵与相似度的属性可靠性评估方法,结合属性重要度确定属性权重;采用证据推理算法集结属性信息,得到方案的综合前景值,并以此进行方案排序。算例分析结果表明,所提方法具有较强的区分能力,能够有效降低决策结果的不确定性,对混合型多属性决策问题具有较好的适用性。 相似文献
636.
Antti Seppo 《Defense & Security Analysis》2019,35(4):384-405
ABSTRACTGerman security and defence policy has undergone substantial transformation. This transformation requires an unprecedented level of political leadership, suggesting that Germany needs to solve the dilemma of how to supply leadership to increasingly demanding partners. What are the conditions under which German leadership can unfold in security and defence policy? To what degree do German role-conceptions of international agency and role-expectations of German leadership coincide? What kind of leadership outputs are produced? This study offers a comprehensive analysis of German security and defence policy in terms of supply (role conceptions) and demand (role expectations). We outline three leadership role conceptions present in the German strategic debate, which we then assess in the context of the Wendtian theory of cultures of anarchy. We then analyse Berlin's leadership in terms of outputs via the case study on Anchor Army and the Framework Nations Concept. We conclude that while Germany has tried to match leadership role expectations both rhetorically and in action, Berlin's leadership inputs have so far been insufficient. This has led to an imbalance in terms of role conceptions and expectations hampering effective German leadership in security and defence policy. 相似文献
637.
Christopher Paul Colin P. Clarke Beth Grill Molly Dunigan 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2016,27(6):1019-1042
Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future. Recent experiences with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan offer many lessons for future counterinsurgents, but the discourse on the subject continues to be mired in a traditional dichotomy pitting population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency against enemy-centric approaches. Historical analysis suggests that this traditional dichotomy is not a sufficiently nuanced way to understand or plan for such operations. Instead, discussions of counterinsurgency should focus on two dimensions: actions (use of physical force vs. political or moral actions) and targets (active insurgents vs. insurgent support). This perspective divides the space of possible counterinsurgency efforts into four quadrants, suggesting that effective counterinsurgency campaigns find a balance of effort across the four quadrants that is well matched to the specific context. 相似文献
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Ben Zweibelson 《Defence Studies》2016,16(1):68-88
Strategists and military professionals have previously questioned many of the methodological (theoretical underpinnings, the principles, and rules applied by the discipline) decisions associated with American military strategy, but the direction this essay takes is above and beyond the common methodological rivalries in how we pursue strategic desired future states. To get beyond methodological disputes entirely, we must consider thinking about our thinking as an organization on American strategy. Thus, this article hovers between philosophies, organizational theory, as well as our usually unquestioned belief in something called “strategy”. Questioning things about our basic understanding of the world tends to trigger strong organizational defense mechanisms, for good reason. Critical reflection at deep levels puts our worldview, and our role within it at stake. Nonetheless, as strategic disappointment emerges over multiple complex conflict developments, even the most cherished and guarded choices on how the world ought to work are ripe for critical inquiry. This essay examines the limited single strategic paradigm of the US defense industry and how the latest American National Security Strategy and Army Future Operating Concept (Win in a Complex World through 2030) presents a flawed strategic position. This essay presents valid alternative strategies that operate within different paradigmatic constructs. 相似文献
640.
Ulrich Hendel 《Defence and Peace Economics》2016,27(5):665-687
This paper examines the interaction between a growth-oriented terrorist organization and an uninformed government based on a two-period signalling game. Combining the signalling game and organizational growth approaches of previous contributions, this paper shows that, if a terrorist group follows a growth strategy, it has an incentive to appear weaker than it is by mimicking the behaviour of a smaller organization. Depending on its beliefs about the extent of the terrorist threat, it can be optimal for a government to spend more on second-period counter-terrorism measures if it is not attacked in the first period than if it were attacked. 相似文献