美军针对高超声速武器的反导预警能力发展态势分析

高超声速武器具有飞行速度快、精确毁伤和高效突防等特点,具有重要的战略威慑和实战应用价值,它能够大幅改变未来战争的态势,已成为大国打破战略平衡、打赢未来战争的新型“杀手锏”。随着高超声速武器逐步走向战场,世界各主要国家的反导防御体系将向更高预警维度、更快反应速度和更大打击力度的天地一体联合防御方向发展。本文分析了高超声速武器作战优势及其对未来战争的影响和威胁,阐述了美军现有反导预警能力的基本架构与能力缺陷,对其未来反高超声速武器的预警能力建设及发展态势进行了研判与预测。美军“优先发展天基反导作战体系,发挥低轨卫星主体作用”的反高超声速武器发展思路对于军队反导反高超声速武器能力建设具有一定的启示和借鉴作用。     

Performances of the defense industrial base in France: the role of small and medium enterprises

This paper employs an economic and statistical approach to get an overview of the defense industrial base (DIB) in France. It allows us to identify its main characteristics and to measure the role of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). An original data-set was built, thanks to the information from the Ministry of Defense (MOD), the French Customs Central and National Administration, the Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR), the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and all the most relevant organizations specialized in the development, production or maintenance, repair, and overhaul of military goods in France. Overall, the DIB turns out as being composed of about 1800 enterprises in France (subcontractors included), of which three-third are SMEs. Along with high market concentration ratios, these enterprises are characterized by a significant military/civil duality, high labor productivity rates, and intensity in Research and Development.     

国有军工集团生产与创新双效率研究

文章利用DEA方法对2015-2016年我国国有军工集团的生产效率和创新效率进行了分析,结果发现:我国国有军工集团的生产效率在近两年整体上有所提升,受行业影响小于自身因素影响,受管理、技术等水平的影响与来自规模因素的影响相差不大;创新效率在近两年整体上有所下降,受行业影响与自身因素影响均较大,无效率主要来自创新管理水平或技术条件的不足;生产效率与创新效率呈现统计上不显著的正相关关系。在此基础上,提出了军工集团实施国企改革的几点建议,以供有关方面参考。     

消防事业市场化初探

发挥社会力量办消防,发展消防中介组织,是引入资金、引入科技、普及消防知识、提高全民消防意识的重要一环.     

基于工控机的导弹指令系数测量方法

指令系数是防空导弹测试中比较重要的参数之一 ,通过对指令系数计算方法的分析 ,得出舵控信号起始采样时刻不会影响测量结果的结论 ,从而大大简化了测量系统的硬件结构和数据采集过程 ,提高了测量系统的稳定性 ,经过较长时间的应用表明 ,测量结果稳定性高 ,一致性好。     

基于经济绩效的国防工业市场最优集中度研究

以满足企业利润最大化和社会福利最大化双重效率标准的思想为基础,通过拟合我国国防支出需求函数和国防工业企业的成本函数,对我国国防工业市场最优集中度进行了理论研究,得出最优企业数量的一般表达式,并以我国航空工业上市公司为例,对其市场集中度展开了系统性估算。研究结果表明,我国国防工业产业的最优企业数量可以根据相关数据与拟合出的参数得到一个明确的数值,并且我国国防工业产业的最优市场集中度表现为适度集中,而在特殊情况下表现为完全集中。我国航空工业上市公司的最优企业数量为14家时,能够满足企业利润最大化与市场出清的双重标准,市场集中度达到最优。     

Addressing the “headwinds” faced by the European arms industry

ABSTRACT

The European arms industry is challenged by several adverse “headwinds.” Fragmentation leads to costly duplications and, in conjunction with stagnating budgets and sharply increasing costs, prevents firms from exploiting economies of scale and learning. This is exacerbated by size differentials vis-a-vis the leading US arms manufacturers and competition from emerging producers. As some “headwinds” are self-enforcing, far-reaching industrial and policy responses are required to improve the industry's outlook. As exports may not indefinitely compensate for low domestic demand, there is an economic imperative for further cross-border collaboration and consolidation. Despite various EU policy initiatives, progresses regarding the European Defence Equipment Market and strengthening the European Defence Technological Industrial Base have been relatively slow. It remains to be seen whether the European Defence Fund will be the proclaimed “game-changer,” raising competitiveness of the European arms industry. At the same time, the UK's withdrawal from the EU adds uncertainties.     

民族区域自治地区推进信息化和发展信息产业的战略思考

信息技术已经成为当今世界经济与社会发展的主要驱动力,信息产业也已经成为新世纪具有强劲发展实力的经济增长点.民族区域自治地区实施西部大开发战略,实现超越式发展,加快现代化建设的步伐,提高国民经济发展的质量与素质,必须重视对信息化推进和信息产业发展的依靠.但民族区域自治地区推进信息化和发展信息产业的基础条件较差,发展速度亟待进一步加快,发展层次亟待进一步提升,因此,必须要有超常规的强有力措施来推进,需要作为"一号工程"来实施.     

Making defense planning meaningful: the evolution of strategic guidance in the Hungarian Ministry of Defense

Hungary, a former communist state, adapted a Western-style defense planning system during the 1990s and 2000s. Although on the surface the elements of this planning system were similar to the planning programming budgeting system (PPBS) developed by the US Department of Defense, strategic guidance for defense planning has not been properly developed until recently. Thus, albeit PPBS-based defense plans were developed in the Hungarian Ministry of Defense (Hungarian MoD) regularly, they lacked both an expression of clear priorities and strategic focus. This article delineates the evolution of strategic guidance in the Hungarian MoD concentrating on current developments, and introduces the newly elaborated analytical concepts and tools, which helped to create needed strategic guidance in Hungary.     

Defence industrial policy – a sound security strategy or an economic fallacy?

This article explores whether it makes sense for national governments to employ defence industrial policies – such as offsets and discriminatory procurement practices – to support their domestic defence industries. This question has so far primarily been discussed by economists, who have argued strongly against the use of defence industrial policies. This article maintains that these economists fail to address the often complex motivation behind the introduction of these policies. It illustrates these shortcomings by contrasting their arguments against a case study of Norway, which accounts for the country’s use of defence industrial polices from the early post-Second World War era up until today. The article concludes that, depending on their objectives, defence industrial policies can be seen as either a sound security strategy or an economic fallacy.