基于搜索论的远程反舰导弹搜捕概率建模方法

针对传统捕捉概率模型难以满足远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率建模计算的问题,提出利用搜索论进行导弹机动搜捕概率计算的建模方法。该方法根据目标机动规律建立其分布概率密度函数,并依据末制导雷达发现目标概率的"倒四次方律"及弹目相对运动轨迹,构建其探测函数,通过求取两者之积的积分实现搜捕概率计算。计算结果显示:若远程反舰导弹不采取机动搜捕策略,目标指示误差增加1km时搜捕概率降低0.47,目标速度增加10节时搜捕概率降低0.3,末制导雷达搜索半径减小50%时搜捕概率降低0.3;若采取平行搜捕策略,上述因素对其影响大幅下降。可见,该方法综合考虑了目标机动规律、传感器探测规律、导弹搜捕策略,可实现远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率的解算。     

Fitting Lanchester equations to the battles of Kursk and Ardennes

Lanchester equations and their extensions are widely used to calculate attrition in models of warfare. This paper examines how Lanchester models fit detailed daily data on the battles of Kursk and Ardennes. The data on Kursk, often called the greatest tank battle in history, was only recently made available. A new approach is used to find the optimal parameter values and gain an understanding of how well various parameter combinations explain the battles. It turns out that a variety of Lanchester models fit the data about as well. This explains why previous studies on Ardennes, using different minimization techniques and data formulations, have found disparate optimal fits. We also find that none of the basic Lanchester laws (i.e., square, linear, and logarithmic) fit the data particularly well or consistently perform better than the others. This means that it does not matter which of these laws you use, for with the right coefficients you will get about the same result. Furthermore, no constant attrition coefficient Lanchester law fits very well. The failure to find a good‐fitting Lanchester model suggests that it may be beneficial to look for new ways to model highly aggregated attrition. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

基于任务和角色的分布式工作流安全模型

针对现有基于角色访问控制的缺陷和分布式工作流管理系统的特性,在传统的基于角色的访问控制模型中引入任务集(Tasks)、任务实例集(TaskInstances)和任务上下文(TaskContext)的概念,将传统的user role permission权限赋予结构修改为user role task permission权限赋予结构,建立了基于任务和角色的访问控制模型,给出了其形式化定义。该模型解决了传统的基于角色访问控制中的动态适应性差和最小权限约束假象的问题,用于分布式工作流管理系统,提高了安全性、实用性。     

Optimal inventory control policy for periodic‐review inventory systems with inventory‐level‐dependent demand

We consider a setting in which inventory plays both promotional and service roles; that is, higher inventories not only improve service levels but also stimulate demand by serving as a promotional tool (e.g., as the result of advertising effect by the enhanced product visibility). Specifically, we study the periodic‐review inventory systems in which the demand in each period is uncertain but increases with the inventory level. We investigate the multiperiod model with normal and expediting orders in each period, that is, any shortage will be met through emergency replenishment. Such a model takes the lost sales model as a special case. For the cases without and with fixed order costs, the optimal inventory replenishment policy is shown to be of the base‐stock type and of the (s,S) type, respectively. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Irreducibility of joint inventory positions in an assemble‐to‐order system under (r,nQ) policies

In a typical assemble‐to‐order system, a customer order may request multiple items, and the order may not be filled if any of the requested items are out of stock. A key customer service measure when unfilled orders are backordered is the order‐based backorder level. To evaluate this crucial performance measure, a fundamental question is whether the stationary joint inventory positions follow an independent and uniform distribution. In this context, this is equivalent to the irreducibility of the Markov chain formed by the joint inventory positions. This article presents a necessary and sufficient condition for the irreducibility of such a Markov chain through a set of simultaneous Diophantine equations. This result also leads to sufficient conditions that are more general than those in the published reports. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

组网雷达的改进粒子滤波算法

针对现代战争中有源雷达容易受到干扰和反辐射导弹的摧毁,以及无源雷达隐蔽性高,只能测量方位角度,测量精度小等特点,提出利用集中式有源雷达系统与无源雷达系统协同组网对目标进行跟踪。但是在实际环境中,噪声属性以及有源雷达,无源雷达接收信号的特点决定了组网雷达需要应用非线性滤波技术对信号进行处理。传统的非线性技术包括卡尔曼滤波、扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)或无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)等方法。非线性近似过程带来的误差相对较大,而且均要求观测噪声和过程噪声为独立或相关的高斯白噪声。而粒子滤波避免了传统非线性滤波方法的缺陷,但是存在粒子退化,于是用EKF和UKF在每一时刻更新粒子,用更新的粒子及其协方差构造重要性函数,然后重采样。仿真实验表明这两种改进粒子滤波方法有很好的效果。     

一类微分方程组极限环的不存在性

在系统奇点唯一的条件下,研究了一类微分方程组不存在极限环的的充分条件,运用和发展了以往的结果。     

一类非线性脉冲时滞抛物型偏微分方程组解的振动性

讨论了一类含脉冲的时滞抛物型方程组非零解的振动性,利用了Green定理以及Jensen不等式,得出了该方程在Robin边界条件下非零解振动的若干准则。     

Holmes’ front: constructing a new face of battle for America’s Civil War

ABSTRACT

In his seminal study of the changing nature of warfare between Agincourt and the Somme, military historian John Keegan proposed that future historians might consider combatants’ emotions in their assessments of the impact and nature of conflict. Recent years have witnessed the emergence of the history of emotions as an analytical approach, but rarely, if ever, is this directed toward the study of military history, far less the history of insurgencies and counter-insurgencies. This paper examines America’s civil war (1861–1865) as a case study of the ways in which an emotional history approach might illuminate not the physical experiences of but rather the immediate and longer-term reactions to counter-insurgency conflict through a focus on one specific individual, the future Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. It proposes that Holmes, whilst not a man of the ranks, nevertheless can reveal the wider ramifications of civil war and its emotional impact, both individually and culturally. As a relatively limited internecine war, one not fought by professional armies but by volunteer forces, America’s civil war highlights the ways in which the soldier’s response points us toward the kind of emotional revolution that has, to date, mainly been located within the European nations.