核危机博弈冲突消解图模型分析

核安全是国家安全体系的重要组成部分。针对博弈过程定量化分析方法的不足,调整冲突消解图模型分析方法并将其应用于核危机博弈分析。提出冲突消解图模型分析流程、相关定义和矩阵表示方法;以1969年爆发的中苏核危机为背景,基于历史数据构建核危机冲突模型,应用矩阵表示算法分析博弈状态演化过程;引入博弈政策和军事能力两类模型参数,调节参数进行博弈模型敏感性分析;应用联盟分析方法识别出可能存在的决策者联盟及其对国家关系演化的影响;根据模型数据分析结果,总结相关结论和决策参考。研究结果表明,冲突分析方法适用于核危机管控研究,采用与军事实力相匹配的策略在危机博弈演化中具有重要作用。     

Measuring the Impact of Military Spending: How Far Does a DSGE Model Deviate from Reality?

Dunne, Smith, and Willenbockel (2005) argue that the mainstream growth literature has not found military spending to be a significant determinant of economic growth, yet much of the defense economics literature has noted significant effects. This paper revisits this issue by using a DSGE-VAR approach, combining both theoretical and empirical methods. We present that the DSGE approach (estimated with the Bayesian technique) and the Bayesian VAR with the Minnesota Prior both lead to worse in-sample fit than our proposed DSGE-VAR framework. The DSGE-VAR approach reveals that a positive military spending shock boosts the U.S. economy, increasing per capita real GDP growth, consumption, inflation and interest rate. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications. Future investigations such as exploring an optimal military spending policy could adopt the approach in this paper to determine the best model – empirical, theoretical, or a combination of the two.     

网络空间攻防技术发展动向分析

网络空间攻防技术对国家安全影响的地位日趋上升,已成为世界主要国家超前布局、优先发展的重要技术领域。文章系统梳理了主要国家在态势感知技术、攻击技术、防御技术、控制技术、支援保障技术等领域所取得重要进展和面临的问题,重点分析和前瞻了网络空间攻防技术发展的新趋势和新途径。     

虚拟现实技术的军事应用

虚拟现实(VirtualReality,简称VR)技术属于国防高科技发展的重要领域,迄今已成为开发研制大型军事电子信息系统、复杂武器装备、作战环境下多武器平台和体系对抗的重要工具。VR技术作为人类认识客观世界和改造客观世界的有效手段正日益发挥着重要的作用。扼要阐述VR技术的内涵与特点、构成与关键技术及其军事应用。     

Markovian approximation for manufacturing systems of unreliable machines in tandem

This paper studies production planning of manufacturing systems of unreliable machines in tandem. The manufacturing system considered here produces one type of product. The demand is assumed to be a Poisson process and the processing time for one unit of product in each machine is exponentially distributed. A broken machine is subject to a sequence of repairing processes. The up time and the repairing time in each phase are assumed to be exponentially distributed. We study the manufacturing system by considering each machine as an individual system with stochastic supply and demand. The Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) is applied to model the process of supply. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. We employ (s, S) policy as production control. Fast algorithms are presented to solve the average running costs of the machine system for a given (s, S) policy and hence the approximated optimal (s, S) policy. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 65–78, 2001     

国外先进战斗机电子对抗系统的发展

首先介绍国外F-22和F-35为代表的先进战斗机的电子战系统和其他欧洲先进战斗机的电子战系统等发展情况。对未来战斗机电子战系统的综合特点和基本功能进行了比较详细的分析和描述,最后叙述了未来战斗机的航空电子系统将设计成为一体化共平台,电子战系统与一体化的航空电子系统融合成为一个功能系统,并描述了这种先进的电子战系统的作战能力。     

Orbix的分布对象计算性能分析

通过一个计数器的分布对象设计及Orbix实现,阐明了先进的分布对象技术标准CORBA的核心概念以及符合CORBA2．0标准的中间件产品Orbix的分布对象设计和实现过程,通过计算比较并分析了Orbix在单机和网络分布环境下实现效率的差异,并提出了用单机模拟网络环境下分布对象实现效率的方法．     

基础对象模型应用方法研究

将来源于理论分析的BOM技术应用于实际的仿真项目之前,包括模型的行为封装方法等许多问题亟需解决.针对这些实际问题,在充分研究BOM的概念、结构和设计理念的基础上,对BOM在仿真中的实际应用方法进行了初步的探讨.进一步明确了BOM技术与其他组件技术的不同,提出了一种以IF BOM描述模式,以ECAP BOM封装模型行为的BOM应用方案,并借助于COM技术设计了模块化的ECAP BOM,实现了ECAP BOM对模型行为的封装.该方法兼顾了仿真模型的灵活性要求和组件封装性的特点,是一种切实可行的方法.     

基于高斯和粒子滤波的AUV水下地形辅助导航方法

针对自主式水下无人航行器(AUV)长时间潜航时的精确导航定位需求,以多波束测深系统为水下地形测量设备,提出一种基于贝叶斯估计的AUV水下地形匹配导航模型。针对贝叶斯滤波后验概率密度函数的求解问题,用高斯混合密度函数近似状态的后验概率密度函数,提出了基于高斯和粒子滤波的水下地形匹配导航方法。基于多波束测深数据的回放式仿真试验表明,提出的方法可以有效近似地形匹配的贝叶斯滤波模型,具有良好的实用性。     

Exact analysis of (R,s, S) inventory control systems with lost sales and zero lead time

We study an (R, s, S) inventory control policy with stochastic demand, lost sales, zero lead‐time and a target service level to be satisfied. The system is modeled as a discrete time Markov chain for which we present a novel approach to derive exact closed‐form solutions for the limiting distribution of the on‐hand inventory level at the end of a review period, given the reorder level (s) and order‐up‐to level (S). We then establish a relationship between the limiting distributions for adjacent values of the reorder point that is used in an efficient recursive algorithm to determine the optimal parameter values of the (R, s, S) replenishment policy. The algorithm is easy to implement and entails less effort than solving the steady‐state equations for the corresponding Markov model. Point‐of‐use hospital inventory systems share the essential characteristics of the inventory system we model, and a case study using real data from such a system shows that with our approach, optimal policies with significant savings in inventory management effort are easily obtained for a large family of items.