Disruption management in production planning

We study the problem of recovering a production plan after a disruption, where the disruption may be caused by incidents such as power failure, market change, machine breakdown, supply shortage, worker no‐show, and others. The new recovery plan we seek after has to not only suit the changed environment brought about by the disruption, but also be close to the initial plan so as not to cause too much customer unsatisfaction or inconvenience for current‐stage and downstream operations. For the general‐cost case, we propose a dynamic programming method for the problem. For the convex‐cost case, a general problem which involves both cost and demand disruptions can be solved by considering the cost disruption first and then the demand disruption. We find that a pure demand disruption is easy to handle; and for a pure cost disruption, we propose a greedy method which is provably efficient. Our computational studies also reveal insights that will be helpful to managing disruptions in production planning. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

基于HLA的信息化陆战场多传感器仿真系统研究

多传感器是实现未来信息化陆战场“网络中心战”概念的一组必要的装备系统。着眼于为信息化陆战场信息采集与信息融合等方面项目先期概念技术演示提供仿真平台,提出了多传感器系统模型,重点研究了基于HLA的信息化陆战场多传感器仿真系统的总体框架及其设计,为该仿真系统的建立和仿真实施提供了技术支持。     

虚拟现实技术在军事领域的应用及对未来战争的影响

虚拟现实是一种全新的人—机交互环境,它为人类提供了一种全新的认识世界、改造世界的手段。介绍了虚拟现实的基本概念、特性、分类、构成、虚拟现实技术在军事领域的应用及虚拟现实在未来战争中的影响。     

雷达空间目标识别仿真系统设计

设计了基于雷达观测的空间目标识别仿真系统,分析了主要功能组成、仿真系统技术关键,介绍了ISAR成像技术及雷达空间目标RCS预估系统的组成和方法,仿真实践证明,该系统具有一定的实用价值。     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Optimal inventory control policy for periodic‐review inventory systems with inventory‐level‐dependent demand

We consider a setting in which inventory plays both promotional and service roles; that is, higher inventories not only improve service levels but also stimulate demand by serving as a promotional tool (e.g., as the result of advertising effect by the enhanced product visibility). Specifically, we study the periodic‐review inventory systems in which the demand in each period is uncertain but increases with the inventory level. We investigate the multiperiod model with normal and expediting orders in each period, that is, any shortage will be met through emergency replenishment. Such a model takes the lost sales model as a special case. For the cases without and with fixed order costs, the optimal inventory replenishment policy is shown to be of the base‐stock type and of the (s,S) type, respectively. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

组网雷达的改进粒子滤波算法

针对现代战争中有源雷达容易受到干扰和反辐射导弹的摧毁,以及无源雷达隐蔽性高,只能测量方位角度,测量精度小等特点,提出利用集中式有源雷达系统与无源雷达系统协同组网对目标进行跟踪。但是在实际环境中,噪声属性以及有源雷达,无源雷达接收信号的特点决定了组网雷达需要应用非线性滤波技术对信号进行处理。传统的非线性技术包括卡尔曼滤波、扩展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)或无迹卡尔曼滤波(UKF)等方法。非线性近似过程带来的误差相对较大,而且均要求观测噪声和过程噪声为独立或相关的高斯白噪声。而粒子滤波避免了传统非线性滤波方法的缺陷,但是存在粒子退化,于是用EKF和UKF在每一时刻更新粒子,用更新的粒子及其协方差构造重要性函数,然后重采样。仿真实验表明这两种改进粒子滤波方法有很好的效果。     

Insurgency by the numbers I: A reconsideration of the ecology of communist success in jiangxi province,China

Theorizing about Taliban operations in Afghanistan has its limits and it is possible that Kabul-centric strategies do not adequately address the unique circumstances of each region in the country. How exactly has the Taliban gone about attaining its objectives in Kandahar province and how have those approaches evolved since 2002? And how have the Taliban adapted to coalition forces' attempts to compete with the insurgency and stamp it out? The answers to these questions are critical in the formulation of any counterinsurgency approach to Afghanistan.     

脉冲轮廓建模仿真与去噪

脉冲轮廓是脉冲星的一个重要物理特性,是脉冲星导航的关键观测量。为深入研究脉冲轮廓的理论特性,建立了脉冲星的标准脉冲轮廓数学模型与观察脉冲轮廓数学模型,用指数函数拟合了蟹状星云脉冲轮廓的轮廓函数,并以此为基础模拟了蟹状星云的标准脉冲轮廓。通过模拟非齐次泊松随机打靶实验获得了光子到达时间的仿真测量值,模拟了蟹状星云的观察脉冲轮廓,仿真结果表明该模型能很好地描述巡天观测的脉冲轮廓。对含噪声的脉冲轮廓进行小波阈值去噪,通过数值分析,认为GCV阈值去噪方法对观测脉冲轮廓有很好的去噪效果。