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Sales of arms are a significant component of international trade and raise a range of pressing policy issues. After a short review of the market, this paper provides a formal model of the trade which allows for competing forward‐looking suppliers whose welfare depends on both the economic benefits from the sales and the security repercussions of recipient behaviour. The recipient's behaviour depends on its military capability, a function of the stock of arms it has acquired. We first examine a myopic recipient, whose behaviour depends on current stocks, then a forward looking recipient for whom questions of the time‐consistency and the credibility of supplier threats to embargo or promises to resupply become crucial. Finally we examine the impact of supplier cooperation of the sort currently being discussed in the UN Security Council. 相似文献
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An availability‐oriented approach has been developed to decide when to replace an aging system. For an existing system, it is optimal to operate another year if and only if the incremental cost per available year is less than the lifetime average cost per available year of a new aircraft. We illustrate our approach using United States Air Force KC‐135 tanker data. In demonstrating our approach, we find it will be optimal to replace the KC‐135 by the end of the decade. 相似文献
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This paper analyses the long‐run demand for defence output through a homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999. We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income, external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use time‐series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We further consider individual country functions related to one another through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account explicitly the connections between members of an alliance. 相似文献
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Military Spending and Income Inequality:Evidence on Cointegration and Causality for Turkey,1963–2007
Erdal Karagol 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(3):289-298
This paper investigates a series of unit root, cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the direction of causality between the growth of GNP and defence expenditure in Turkey for the years 1955–2000. The main conclusion is that there is a long‐run equilibrium relationship between GNP and defence expenditures. Furthermore, the short run causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between variables, from defence expenditure to economic growth. In order to see the effect of a shock, we employed impulse response analyses. The results show that GNP decreased during the period then output finally recovered from the initial shock to defence expenditures. 相似文献
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针对倾斜转弯无人水下航行器的控制系统是横滚、俯仰、偏航三通道强耦合非线性系统这一特点,首先建立了三通道控制问题加权性能结构模型,并研究了权函数的选取;然后,设计了H∞鲁棒控制器,并进行降阶处理;最后,进行了仿真验证。仿真验证表明:该设计方法能有效克服各通道的交叉耦合作用,可以满足倾斜转弯无人水下航行器的控制设计要求。 相似文献
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本文对二甲苯溶剂中MeSiHCl2 和甲醇的反应产物Me (OMe)2SiH 及MeSi(OMe)3 作了红外和核磁共振分析, 结果表明: 以红外谱图中Si-H 和苯环吸收带作为含量分析谱带, 采用比例法, 借助工作曲线,可确定反应产物的含量。亦可以通过对各组分处于不同化学位移下质子的核磁共振分析,采用归一化法,经过换算测定反应产物混合液中各组份含量。两种测定方法均简便快捷, 并对两法的测定结果作了分析比较。 相似文献
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分析了甚低码率视频压缩标准H 2 6 3建议中运动补偿算法 ,介绍了MMX技术的特点、数据结构和使用方法 ,在此基础上用MMX技术实现了运动补偿算法。 相似文献
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