Minimum deterrence and missile defenses: what's new,what's true,what's arguable

Minimum deterrence is a compromise, or halfway house, between nuclear abolition or nearly zero and assured destruction, the dominant paradigm for strategic nuclear arms control during and after the cold war. Minimum deterrence as applied to the current relationship between the United States and Russia would require downsizing the numbers of operationally deployed long-range nuclear weapons to 1000, or fewer, on each side. More drastic bilateral Russian–American reductions would require the cooperation of other nuclear weapons states in making proportional reductions in their own arsenals. In addition, US plans for European-based and global missile defenses cause considerable angst in Russia and threaten to derail the Obama “reset” in Russian–American relations, despite the uncertainties about current and plausible future performances of missile defense technologies.     

驱护舰编队对潜防御性搜索态势分析与方法

针对驱护舰武器装备的发展,结合驱护舰编队海上对潜防御作战的新特点,根据特定驱护舰编队的使命任务,提出了特定驱护舰编队对潜进攻性搜索与防御性搜索的新概念,并在战斗战场范围内对特定驱护舰编队对潜防御性搜索态势进行了分析,给出了编队对潜防御性搜索方法.对部队作战与训练具有一定的参考应用价值.     

目标识别的D-S融合算法

从防空角度出发,详细地阐明了D-S理论中关于多传感器数据融合的原理和目标识别的方法,同时结合应用实例给出了详细和可行的算法.     

弹炮一体化防空系统的服务概率模型

弹炮一体化防空系统是未来高技术局部战争中应急机动部队的主要防空武器。首先给出了弹炮一体化防空系统服务概率的定义 ,然后通过研究这种防空武器对目标服务过程的特点 ,建立了服务概率计算模型 ,为评价这种防空武器的射击能力和系统效能 ,提供了必要的分析手段     

海军舰载导弹防空系统信息作战方法

信息与火力是海军舰载导弹防空系统研究的核心问题,运用信息作战原理,在给定攻击战机的条件下,对舰载导弹防空系统的信息与火力联合作战能力的分析表明:与提高作战安全性的隐形战机相比,军事诱骗战术更易降低舰载导弹防空系统的火力防御能力.火力对作战能力的贡献约为信息的4倍.根据这一结论,可以为海军舰载导弹防空系统开发出基于信息作战原理的新战法,全面提高指战员在实战中把握信息与火力的运用规律、实施信息作战、做出科学决策和夺取战场胜利的能力.     

水面舰艇对鱼雷防御决策仿真分析

如何对来袭鱼雷进行防御成为水面舰艇对潜防御作战的重中之重.根据世界主要海军国家普遍装备的火箭助飞声诱饵的使用原理、基本战技性能,结合"线导+声自导"鱼雷的作战过程,仔细分析了水面舰艇对抗鱼雷的作战态势,通过大量的仿真计算得出火箭助飞声诱饵的最佳使用方式以及舰艇的机动方法.     

Resilience as the EU Global Strategy’s new leitmotif: pragmatic,problematic or promising?

A striking difference between the EU’s 2016 Global Strategy and its 2003 predecessor is the ubiquity of resilience as a new leitmotif, understood as the ability of states and societies to reform, thus withstanding and recovering from internal and external crisis. Resilience provides a middle ground between over-ambitious liberal peace-building and under-ambitious stability, (re)directs attention to local resources and practices, and is ambiguous enough to be acceptable to everyone. The Global Strategy’s leitmotif is an example of the rise and spread of resilience in international discourses about crisis management and humanitarian emergencies. Although there are risks inherent to the way in which resilience reframes risks and crises, its added value lies in its power as convening concept, opening up international organizations to new ways of thinking and working, and providing a common ground for engagement.     

The making of the EU Global Strategy

This article traces the evolution of the EU strategic reflection which culminated in the publication of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS) in June 2016. It explains the choices made by EU High Representative Federica Mogherini over this time period—including both the initial strategic assessment and the final EUGS. It provides a behind the scenes view on the players, the organization and the methods of work used to produce a strategic vision for the EU’s role in the world.     

Securitising humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction in Africa: A critical review of South Africa's new defence policy

The South African Defence Review 2014 is the country's new defence policy. The Review, which is expected to steer South African defence policymaking for the next few decades, discusses in detail the role of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) in peace missions in Africa and proposes the direct involvement of the country's soldiers in both military and civilian tasks, from peacekeeping to humanitarian assistance, post-conflict reconstruction and development. This paper contains a critical review of the Review with regard to South Africa's envisaged contribution to regional and continental peace and stability. It is argued that humanitarian assistance and post-conflict reconstruction should not be securitised and that the SANDF should only be tasked with peacekeeping and the establishment of stability and security in fragile in-conflict and post-conflict settings. The humanitarian work should be left to humanitarian and aid agencies, while reconstruction and development should be left to organisations such as the New Partnership for Africa's Development, continental and international development organisations, and local actors.     

EU Global Strategy in a changing world: Brussels’ approach to the emerging powers

The world is entering a period of power transition, at the outcome of which some new form of global order (or disorder) is likely to emerge. Critical to this process is the interaction between the established powers, the USA and the European Union (EU), and the emerging powers, particularly China, Brazil, India and Russia. Many analysts have classified the EU as a declining power, a perception that has been enhanced with the triple crises of sovereignty that have rocked the Union since the mid-2000s (money, borders and defence). In this context, the publication of the EU Global Strategy was an opportunity for the EU to state clearly the nature of its ongoing and future relations with the rest of the world. This article argues that, in reality, Europe as a bloc (as opposed to its member states severally) has very limited purchase with the other major powers, and an ambivalent or ill-defined grasp of how to engage with them. They, for their part, have difficulty in knowing how to understand the EU as an actor and prefer to deal bilaterally with its key member states.