低速磁浮轨道几何参数测量系统

轨道几何状态是影响低速磁浮列车运行安全性和舒适性的重要指标,因此,必须定期测量轨道几何参数,并根据测量结果结果开展轨道维护,使轨道状态保持良好。利用FMS01完成了唐山1.5km低速磁浮轨道线路几何参数测量,结果表明,以用水准仪的精密测量高低结果为参考,FMS01的高低测量最大误差不超过±0.7mm;以多次测量的平均值为参考,各参数测量的最大误差不超过±0.2mm。     

空气/煤油/水燃气发生器点火特性试验研究

燃气发生器是超燃冲压发动机地面试验系统中的关键设备,为提高系统安全性和经济性设计了空气/煤油/水燃气发生器,在富燃状态下进行了一系列点火试验,试验结果表明：该型燃气发生器,实现可靠点火的余氧系数下限为0.51;水的加入使得化学反应速率和火焰传播速度降低,燃气发生器点火和火焰稳定困难,提高余氧系数可以提高点火可靠性。同时水的加入容易引起燃烧不稳定,通过提高余氧系数可消除低频不稳定燃烧。     

A model of the international arms market∗

Sales of arms are a significant component of international trade and raise a range of pressing policy issues. After a short review of the market, this paper provides a formal model of the trade which allows for competing forward‐looking suppliers whose welfare depends on both the economic benefits from the sales and the security repercussions of recipient behaviour. The recipient's behaviour depends on its military capability, a function of the stock of arms it has acquired. We first examine a myopic recipient, whose behaviour depends on current stocks, then a forward looking recipient for whom questions of the time‐consistency and the credibility of supplier threats to embargo or promises to resupply become crucial. Finally we examine the impact of supplier cooperation of the sort currently being discussed in the UN Security Council.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

9/11: WHAT DID WE KNOW AND WHEN DID WE KNOW IT?

In February 1998, Osama Bin Laden published a signed statement calling for a fatwa against the United States for its having ‘declared war against God’. As we now know, the fatwa resulted in the unprecedented attack of 9/11. The issue of whether or not 9/11 was in any way predictable culminated in the public debate between Richard Clarke, former CIA Director George Tenet and the White House. This paper examines whether there was any evidence of a structural change in the terrorism data at or after February 1998 but prior to June 2001, controlling for the possibility of other breaks in earlier periods. In doing so, we use the standard Bai–Perron procedure and our sequential importance sampling (SIS) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for identifying an unknown number of breaks at unknown dates. We conclude that sophisticated statistical time‐series analysis would not have predicted 9/11.     

A non‐linear defence‐growth nexus? evidence from the US economy

The defense‐growth nexus is investigated empirically using time series data for the US and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be non‐linear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level‐dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: the positive externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively lower levels of defense spending (with respect to the history of defense spending in the US) and reverts its influence for higher levels.     

TERRORISM AND TOURISM: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Using a time series method called ‘transfer function’, this paper examines the effect of terrorism on tourism in Turkey. The results indicate that there exists a negative but small impact of terrorism, which is observed within approximately one year. However, terrorist attacks in Turkey have accounted for a reduction of six million foreign tourists over the last nine years. Moreover, the economic cost of terrorism in the tourism industry was more than $700 million in 2006. However, terrorist attacks in continental Europe and America, and an active war involving a neighboring country, had no effects on tourism in Turkey.     

Remaking the military industrial relationship: A French‐American comparison

Defense industrial complexes in leading Cold War nations have downsized and reallocated resources to other productive activities in the 1990s. In this paper, we analyze the experience of two key countries ‐ the US and France. Comparing the two countries, we find similar outcomes in budgetary retrenchment and large firm restructuring but marked differences in the pace of downsizing and diversification among small and medium‐sized firms. We hypothesize that three sets of contextual differences may explain these differences: 1) institutional differences in the way that the State bureaucracies ‐ the Pentagon and the French Délégation générale pour l'armement (DGA) ‐ oversee defense industrial matters, 2) differences in military industry ownership and firm size patterns, and 3) differences in the regional distribution of defense industrial capacity and associated regional policies. In closing, we note that the two countries’ defense industrial complexes are becoming more alike and speculate on the significance of invidious competition and interactions between them. We address briefly the future of French/American arms industrial competition and cooperation, given the trend towards transnational security arrangements and defense industry globalization     

Notes on Cataneo's Scale,Some Gunners' Daggers and a Gunners' Rule

Abstract

Cataneo's scale, published in 1571, relates the weight of shot to the internal muzzle diameter of guns ranging between 0.04–0.21 m. Plots of calculated shot density versus muzzle diameter suggest that diameters of 0.10 m and above apply to iron shot and those below apply to lead and lead/iron composite shot. Similar plots are used to compare Cataneo's scale with other contemporary scales and with scales engraved on the blades of five Italian gunners' daggers dating to around 1650. Variations and errors in the daggers' scales might suggest a symbolic rather than a practical role; nevertheless there is remarkable consistency with Cataneo's scale in the shape of the plots in spite of the considerable length of time after its publication. A simple wooden scale from the Spanish Armada ship La Trinidad Valencera also confirms to Cataneo's general pattern although there appears to be a fundamental error in its mathematical construction.     

界面热阻对金刚石/银复合材料导热率的影响

研究了金刚石／银复合材料的导热率与金刚石的含量、粒度等之间的关系,着重讨论了界面热阻对复合材料导热率的影响。并阐述了金刚石表面镀钛,能有效改善金刚石对银的润湿性,降低界面热阻,从而提高金刚石／银复合材料的导热率。