Counterinsurgency force ratio: strategic utility or nominal necessity

As a consequence of intervention in Iraq and Afghanistan, force ratio for counterinsurgency (COIN) has come under increased scrutiny. Reduced to its essence, the issue is simply, ‘How many troops does it take to get the job done?’ This answer has been sought by the US military, academia, and think tanks. There have been numerous responses, culminating in several ‘plug-and-play’ equations for minimum force ratios in COIN operations. Due to the impossibility of determining precisely how many insurgent forces there are, it has become common to base force ratios on the population of the country. In the realm of policy, the question above is posed as, ‘How many of our troops does it take to get the job done?’     

The failure of defense planning in European Post-Communist Defense Institutions: ascertaining causation and determining solutions

By any objective measure, defense institutions in Central and Eastern Europe have all but universally been incapable of producing viable defense plans that are based on objective costing and operational planning data. This situation exists in spite the provision of considerable Western advice and assistance, let alone reporting to and receiving assessments by NATO’s International Staff under Partnership for Peace, as well as via the integrated defense planning and reporting systems. An explanation for this systematic failure across European post-Communist defense institutions can be found in the continued slow development of an over-arching policy framework which directs and approves all activities of the armed forces, as well as the de-centralization of financial decision-making down to capability providers. The essay ends with an examination of the adverse effects of the early introduction of planning programming, budgeting system (PPBS), have had on the development of effective policy and planning capabilities within these defense institutions.     

基于插件技术的人工免疫智能空间优化平台研究

采用人工智能方法求解空间优化问题已成为当前地理学研究领域的热点之一。研究目的在于通过设计一个开放的、可扩展的人工免疫空间优化模型框架,开发基于插件技术的优化工具软件,丰富空间优化决策支持的方法和技术体系。研究从空间优化问题的基本特点和计算需求出发,定义了面向空间优化问题求解的克隆选择优化模型框架。在此基础上,采用"插件-宿主平台"结构设计了人工免疫智能空间优化平台的总体架构,定义免疫算子插件与空间优化问题应用插件开发机制。实验结果表明,平台的架构和功能设计充分考虑了计算平台的开放性和扩展性,通过平台标准接口的功能扩展可实现对不同类型空间优化问题的求解。空间优化问题研究者或政府决策部门无需关系人工免疫优化方法的具体内涵即可基于本平台完成其具体空间优化决策支持任务。     

自补偿液体静压精密转台轴承设计与实验

设计了一种用于精密转台的新型自补偿圆锥形液体静压轴承,并完成了轴承的制造与性能测试。采用流量平衡原理推导了轴承设计公式,得到了轴向和径向的最优刚度及其优化条件,计入制造误差对轴承承载性能进行了仿真,并测试了轴承的刚度和回转精度。结果表明:轴承刚度受到节流间隙与承载间隙的流阻比以及油腔间内流系数影响,流阻比存在最优值,而内流系数越小,对刚度越有利;计入制造误差的仿真模型能够有效预测轴承刚度范围。     

GNSS应急辅助定位及精度评估方法研究

在可视卫星数少于4颗、无法进行传统导航解算的恶劣环境下,导航接收机可利用外部高程气压计提供的高程或者内部守时模块的钟差等信息进行应急辅助定位。在该应急辅助定位工作模式的误差分析中,传统导航定位误差传递模型无法适用。针对此问题,本文在研究三星结合高程、三星结合钟差、双星结合高程钟差等几种应急辅助定位原理的基础上,给出了新的应急辅助定位误差传递的分析模型,利用仿真算例验证了该模型的正确性。最后通过对定位精度的分析,说明根据卫星分布特点可以按照本文方法量化得到伪距测量与辅助信息的精度的最优数量级关系,可以用最小代价实现定位精度的提升。该结论可指导接收机外部辅助器件的选择。     

HARNESSING GLOBAL TRADE DATA FOR BIOLOGICAL ARMS CONTROL

Unlike treaties dealing with nuclear and chemical weapons, the Biological Weapons Convention still lacks formal verification measures, 31 years after entering into force. Here we propose a global export-import monitoring system of biological dual-use items as an additional measure for a web of biological arms controls that could complement traditional export controls. We suggest that such a measure may help to guide consultation or verification processes in the biological area.     

无人机集群作战概念及关键技术分析

无人机集群作战正在从概念走向雏形.文章总结了国外无人机集群作战概念的发展,分析了无人机集群作战的主要关键技术,包括大规模无人机管理与控制、多无人机自主编队飞行、集群感知与态势共享、集群突防与攻击、集群作战任务控制站等技术,并展望了未来无人机集群协同搜索、协同干扰、协同攻击、协同察/打、集群对抗等作战应用.     

Transnational terrorism as a spillover of domestic disputes in other countries

This paper models transnational terrorism as a three‐way strategic interaction involving a government that faces armed opposition at home, which may spill over in the form of acts of terrorism by the state's opponents against the government's external sponsor. The external sponsor also utilises deterrence against potential terrorists, which only lowers terrorism if terrorists are not intrinsically motivated by a deep‐seated sense of humiliation. The model highlights the importance of intrinsic motivation. A rise in the external power's preference for deterrence against terrorism may backfire in these circumstances. Increases in the government's military efficiency against the rebels, who are also terrorists against the government's sponsor, raises overall levels of violence.     

Book review

Jacques Fontanel, Les dépenses militaires et le désarmement, Editions Publisud, Paris, 1995, 136 pages.

Jean‐Paul Hébert ’Production d'armement — Mutilation du systéme français’, Paris 1995 La documentation française, 221 pages.     

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: COMMENT AND RECONSIDERATION

In a recent paper in this journal, Wijewerra and Webb study the connection between military spending and gross domestic product (GDP) in a group of five South Asian countries, finding a small but statistically significant positive relationship between military spending and GDP. This paper reviews their approach and proposes an alternative which tries to deal with the problems of omitted variables and variable construction. It finds, in contrast, that a higher share of military spending in GDP is associated with lower growth of GDP per capita.