Technical and proliferation‐related aspects of the dismantlement of Russian Alfa‐Class nuclear submarines

When does a state become a “nuclear weapon state”? How we choose to answer this question has significant implications for proliferation assessment, analysis, and policy. Traditionally, the standard demarcation line has been a state's first nuclear test, but in recent years analysts have increasingly focused instead on the accumulation of a significant quantity (SQ) of fissile material. The article argues that although the test/no-test indicator clearly has problems, its replacement by the SQ/no-SQ indicator would be highly counterproductive. The article instead proposes supplementing the traditional test/no-test indicator with a theory-driven approach that focuses on the incentives and disincentives to test.     

美国海岸警卫队“综合深水系统”现状及启示

综合深水系统是美国海岸警卫队20世纪90年代提出构想并逐步实施的其在21世纪的装备系统,它具有系统性、兼容性、互动性和先进性,是美国海岸警卫队历史上最大的最具革新性的装备系统。由于我国分散执法的海上执法体制等原因,我国海上执法队伍整体装备存在重复建设、兼容性差、技术水平落后、整体效能差等问题。美国海岸警卫队“综合深水系统”对我国未来海上执法队伍装备建设具有一定的借鉴意义。     

Israel’s relations with the Gulf states: Toward the emergence of a tacit security regime?

By drawing on the literature about security regimes, this article posits the idea that a particular type of regime, which can be termed a “tacit security regime” (TSR), has begun to emerge between Israel, on the one hand, and several Gulf Arab states, on the other. It is a regime which, unlike liberal institutional variants that attempt to privilege the promotion of collective norms, remains configured around perceptions of threats to be countered and strategic interests to be realized. By examining the development, scope, and scale of this nascent TSR, this article explores the extent to which Israel, mindful of Washington, DC’s regional retrenchment, sees the emergence of such a regime as redefining the political and strategic contours of Israel’s relations with much of the Middle East.     

基于转盘爬虫法的雷达地形遮蔽盲区快速计算

为解决飞机在低空突防过程中的雷达地形遮蔽盲区快速计算问题,提出了一种基于转盘爬虫对象的快速算法。首先介绍了雷达盲区产生的因素,分析了地形遮蔽和地球曲率盲区的计算模型,然后定义了转盘及爬虫对象,并设计了基于转盘爬虫对象的地形遮蔽盲区计算方法和流程。在此基础上,将雷达地形遮蔽盲区计算结果进行三维建模及可视化,通过典型算例对算法进行对比测试和实验,得到不同高度的雷达地形遮蔽盲区分布图及三维可视化模型,证明了算法的快速性和可行性。     

Shifting power,preventive logic,and the response of the target: Germany,Russia, and the First World War

If a declining state has incentives for preventive war, the rising state should have incentives to delay a confrontation until it is stronger. We develop the theoretical paradox and examine the July 1914 crisis. Why did Russia, rising relative to Germany, not adopt a buying-time strategy? We argue that although most Russian leaders hoped to avoid a confrontation, they feared that the failure to support Serbia would lead to a loss of Russian credibility and a significant setback to Russia’s position in the Balkans, one that could not easily be reversed, even with Russia’s expected increase in relative military power.     

THE NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES

The nuclear weapon states (NWS) have different perspectives on the desirability and feasibility of a world without nuclear weapons. A review of each of the current nuclear doctrines, postures, and disarmament policies of the five NWS shows that there is a clear divide between them, with some showing relatively determined leadership (the United States and the United Kingdom) and others expressing skepticism, if not complete disinterest (France, Russia, and China). Nevertheless, the prospects for progress on disarmament by the NWS at the 2010 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons remain reasonably good. Yet complete success will require much time as well as sustained and applied efforts from the NWS, first and foremost to improve their performance as international security guarantors.     

可靠度评价在建筑防火设计中的应用

提出在建筑结构耐火设计及火灾后建筑物修复设计中进行可靠度理论应用的必要性、可行性与优越性 ,旨在为建筑结构在火灾过程中及灾后的安全性评估提供新的研究思路。     

GPS和类GPS测距技术联合用于双星编队星座的状态确定

编队卫星状态的高精度确定是编队星座功能实现的重要基础。针对对地观测的双星编队星座的状态确定问题,为了提高状态确定的精度,在GPS技术的基础上,引入了类GPS测距技术,建立了联合GPS和类GPS测距技术进行状态整体确定的两种数学模型,并讨论了GPS星间单差模糊度和类GPS星内单差模糊度的同时初始化方法,最后进行了数值仿真。仿真结果显示,类GPS观测值尤其是类GPS星内载波单差观测值的引入,明显提高了双星编队星座的状态确定精度,其中绝对姿态角的精度达到rad,相对位置的精度达到m,相对钟差的精度达到s。仿真证明方法正确有效,模型二更优于模型一。     

广生灭过程的积分型随机泛函

讨论了广生灭过程的积分型随机泛函的概率分布，给出了分布的拉氏变换所满足的差分方程，且求出了它们的解     

The future challenges of NATO: An economic viewpoint

This article identifies and evaluates likely challenges facing NATO today and into the next millennium. These contingencies include ethnic‐based civil wars in Europe, transnational terrorism, rogue states, increased world income inequality, out‐of‐area conflicts, and environmental and resource security. Using concepts and tools from collective action, I assess these challenges and suggest effective policies for addressing them. NATO still has a crucial role to play in maintaining world security in the post‐Cold War era.