马尔可夫过程的k/N系统使用任务完成能力分析

研究了任务期间允许换件维修和备件供应时k/N系统的任务完成能力.首先,利用马尔可夫过程分析了k/N系统的状态转移过程,研究了k/N系统在特定维修保障策略下的运行过程.然后,以k/N系统固定任务时间内在正常状态停留时间的分布函数作为其任务完成概率模型,并通过全概率分解和更新过程的分析方法对任务完成概率进行求解.最后,利用任务完成概率模型在Matlab中绘制了任务完成概率随任务时间、任务量、备件携行数量以及备件平均供应时间的变化曲线,讨论并分析了对任务完成概率的影响.     

技术成熟度多维评估模型研究

技术成熟度直接关系到武器装备的研制和应用。针对技术成熟度评估存在过度依赖专家智慧、操作周期长、费用高;指标单一、可信度缺乏;数据难以获取、评价方法难度较大等问题,研究了技术发展与技术对应文献关系,提出了基于技术分解结构构建技术成熟度多维评估模型,分析了基于S曲线知识图谱划分技术成熟度等级,并以航母电磁弹射器技术为例进行模型验证。研究表明,技术成熟度多维评估模型具有客观、简便、费用低、易操作等特点,可以与TRL互为补充。     

院校网络信息资源建设应服务于信息化教学应用

随着现代信息技术的飞速发展和网络技术的广泛应用,网络信息资源呈现的形式更加丰富多彩。武警院校网络信息资源建设如何为信息化教学服务,是摆在武警院校教育工作者面前的一个重要课题。从武警院校网络信息资源建设存在的问题入手,分析了网络信息资源对信息化教学的作用,并对网络信息资源建设服务于武警院校信息化教学的主要对策进行了论述。     

射频前端强电磁脉冲前门耦合研究

针对强电磁脉冲能量经天线进入射频前端的威胁,给出强电磁脉冲环境的评估方法,通过分析天线-射频前端工作原理,提出全频带脉冲耦合能量的理论计算公式.并以中馈天线-短波电台为例,用电磁仿真软件CST实现了天线仿真与前端电路仿真的有机连接,得出前门耦合数据及其影响因素,此仿真方案也为更深入分析耦合效应、验证防护技术提供了良好平台.最后根据仿真为前门防护提出若干意见.     

基于QFD的动能反卫装备体系技术需求分析

动能反卫装备体系涉及技术领域众多,高精尖技术相对集中。利用质量功能展开(QFD)方法,建立了QFD在装备体系需求分析中的质量屋(HOQ)结构,并且将德尔菲和头脑风暴法相结合确定了顾客需求权重,重点分析了QFD在动能反卫装备体系技术需求分析中的需求转换过程,将动能反卫装备体系的作战能力需求转化为装备体系技术需求,得到了动能反卫装备体系关键技术的重要度排序。     

SLOWING DOWN TO KEEP THE LEAD IN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY

We develop a model of military technology competition among states. States can choose to introduce new military technology, mimic rivals’ level of technology, or withdraw from the contest. States can choose to implement any level of technology within their current feasible technologies. We find that states with significant technological leads should sometimes withhold new technologies, only strategically releasing them to trump rivals’ efforts. We develop the model by refining Admiral Jackie Fisher’s roughly articulated concept of ‘plunging’. We then use this refined argument to reanalyze the case of naval rivalries among European powers between the Crimean War and the First World War. Finally, we conclude by discussing the model’s implications for current US military force structure planning.     

Country Survey XIII: Japan's security posture and defense industry prospects

Defense budgets in Japan have been complicated compromises from numerous inputs ‐ including threat perceptions, domestic industrial/technological base development, support for the bilateral security treaty with the United States and internal bureaucratic politics ‐ but with the fall of the former Soviet Union, the clearest justification for higher spending disappeared. Double‐digit defense spending increases that were common in the 1980s have been replaced by annual increases lower than present inflation rates, resulting in negative real growth in the country's defense budget. Domestic economic problems and consistent government pressures for smaller budgets have further slowed annual growth in total spending and have contributed to lower procurement budgets. As a result, the domestic Japanese defense industry is facing far more constrained conditions from the growth years of a decade before.

Government policymakers are examining Japan's regional security environment as well as its alliance with the United States to determine the appropriate course for the country to take in the coming years. The formal security treaty with the United States is likely to remain a major element of government positions, but other aspects of the country's overall security posture are open to debate. Perceptions of a reduced threat environment are fueling additional pressures for defense budget cuts.

The domestic defense industry seeks means to assure its survival in domestic defense markets in this constrained environment. Expansion into overseas markets to offset declining domestic markets is an option that currently is constrained by policy restrictions on arms exports. Industry is advocating re‐examination of those policies and unlike earlier years, government appears willing to respond positively but cautiously to this lobbying.     

Portfolio analysis for defense: taking account of networking

To manage their assets at an enterprise level, defense organizations have turned to portfolio theory for the planning, analysis and management of their military forces and materiel. Despite being well established in the commercial sector, the application of portfolio approaches in defense is problematic. The vexatious question for defense of how to define and measure benefits arising is complicated by the increased utility and effectiveness achieved through networking of military forces and the equipment they use. The authors discuss the challenges for defense in using a portfolio approach and propose a conceptual model for dealing with the effects arising from networking with information and communications technologies.     

浅谈科技期刊审稿中的问题及对策

审稿是科技期刊出版工作中的重要环节之一,是决定论文录用与否和保证刊物质量的关键,而目前的审稿制度也存在着一些问题和弊端。如何克服这些问题,就需要不断提高初审编辑的审稿质量,通过建立完善专家审稿队伍严把稿件质量关,灵活运用多种审稿方式,加强作者与审稿专家的沟通,提高论文质量,促进期刊健康发展。