The Afghan model in northern Iraq

In Operation ‘Iraqi Freedom’, as the Coalition's heavy forces fought in the South, in the North a handful of special operations forces, working with Kurdish rebels, clashed with the Iraqi army along the Green Line. In operations reminiscent of those used a year earlier to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan, the lightly armed and heavily outnumbered Coalition forces called in air strikes to defeat Iraq's regular and Republican Guard army divisions. This article tells the story of these operations and discusses some of their implications for future US military policy. The success of the Afghan model in Iraq goes a long way toward demonstrating the efficacy of new air-heavy tactics and shows the strategic value of using light indigenous allies to replace heavy US land forces in both conventional combat and occupation operations.     

一类具有饱和发生率的SEIS传染病模型全局稳定性研究

研究一类易感者和潜伏者都有新增常数输入,疾病具有饱和发生率的SEIS传染病模型．经计算得到模型的基本再生数,证明当基本再生数〉1时,模型只存在惟一的地方病平衡点的结论,并利用特征方程和Hurwitz判据分析地方病平衡点的局部稳定性,通过采用第二加性复合矩阵理论证明地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性．     

Analysis of the mass of behind-armor debris generated by RHA subjected to normal penetration of variable cross-section EFP

Analyzing the mass of behind-armor debris (BAD) generated by Rolled Homogeneous Armor (RHA) subjected to normal penetration of variable cross-section Explosively Formed Projectile (EFP) is the purpose of this paper. So theoretical analysis, numerical simulation and experimental data are combined to analyze the influence of variable cross-section characteristic on the time history of crater radius. Moreover the relationships between time history of crater radius (as well as mass of BAD) and the thickness of RHA (from 30 mm to 70 mm) and the impact velocity of EFP (1650 m/s to 1860 m/s) are also investigated. The results indicate that: 1) being compared to the variable cross-section characteristic is ignored, the theoretical time history of crater radius is in better agreement with the simulation results when the variable cross-section characteristic is considered; 2) being compared to the other three conditions of plug, the theoretical mass of BAD is in the best agreement with the simulation results when the shape of plug is frustum of a cone and the angle between generatrix and bottom is 45° and the axial length of mushroom is considered.     

地炮营射击指挥系统效能分析

对地炮营射击指挥系统的有效度、可靠度、可信赖度、发现目标概率、服务概率等进行了探讨,采用美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会推荐的基本效能模型,计算出了实施拦阻射击时,地炮营射击指挥系统的效能。     

自动化电弧喷涂路径偏移间距的优化模型

基于电弧喷涂沉积丘的轮廓呈高斯分布的假设,并结合实验结果,建立了电弧喷涂沉积丘轮廓的数学模型,由此推导出了自动化喷涂过程中平行路径偏移间距这一重要参量的优化模型。该模型为合理规划自动化喷涂的路径提供了依据。     

载机军舰航空燃油分段接力式补给模型

为解决载机军舰远洋作战时所需的航空燃油按时补给问题,建立了带有自动调节系统的载机军舰航空燃油分段接力式补给的预测模型。对航空燃油分段接力式补给进行研究,采用系统动力学方法,构建影响补给船队补给效率的各元素因果回路图与存量流量图及预测模型,并以系统动力学软件Vensim PLE 5.9为平台进行建模仿真。运行结果表明,该模型在扰动条件下能进行航空燃油分段接力式补给趋势的预测,可为航空燃油分段接力式补给方案的制定提供理论依据。     

HVU护航编队防空作战模型

以M.Poulos的防空作战模型为基础,将护航编队防空分为区域防御和点防御2个层次,在进行必要的假设和简化后,建立了HVU (high value units)护航编队防空作战模型.在此模型的基础上,假设护航编队面114 3种攻击态势,对各种态势的防空效能进行了计算,得出了护航编队防空作战效能的衡量标准应选择HVU目标的剩余生命力为依据的结论,并建议为提高护航编队的防空作战效能,HVU应装备防御能力较强的点防御舰空导弹.     

无源雷达菱形布站的定位精度分析

为了得到无源雷达菱形布站的最佳布站方案,分析了时差定位算法的基本原理,推导了定位精度的数学模型,考虑了影响定位精度的各种因素。通过计算机仿真实验对比了在不同主站位置、不同站间距离以及不同主站高度的情况下菱形布站的GDOP(geometric d ilution of precision)等值线分布,最终得出了定位精度与布站之间的联系,为无源雷达最优菱形布站提供了理论依据。     

装备需求论证模型化基本理论研究

针对装备需求论证缺乏模型体系支撑的问题,系统研究了装备需求论证模型化基本理论,论述了装备需求论证模型化的原则、方法、步骤和趋势,分析了关键工作与关键技术,并给出了装备需求满足度数学模型的应用示例,旨在为装备需求论证模型化提供理论指导,进一步完善装备需求论证工程化理论体系。     

餐厨垃圾热风干燥过程特性及模拟

为了考察不同温度(60～100℃)对2种餐厨垃圾在热风干燥过程中的水分变化规律及动理学特性的影响,利用7个数学模型对餐厨垃圾干燥过程的水分变化规律进行了拟合对比。结果表明:温度是影响干燥的重要因素。干燥温度越高,餐厨垃圾达到平衡含水率所需时间越短;烹饪过程可以改变餐厨垃圾的热阻,增加其活化能;用Page模型和Modified Page模型描述餐厨垃圾热风干燥过程拟合精度最佳;2种餐厨垃圾有效湿分扩散系数分别为1.37×10-9～2.47×10-9,5.14×10-10～2.05×10-9m2/s,活化能分别为13.86,34.05 kJ/mol。