Military expenditures,economic growth and spatial spillovers

The relationship between economic growth and military expenditure has been the subject of a large literature in defence economics. This study analyses the influence of military expenditures on economic growth in a global perspective for the time period 2000–2010 taking spatial dimension into account. The augmented Solow model is employed to investigate the defence-growth nexus using the cross-sectional data relating to 128 countries. Following a traditional regression analysis, spatial variations in the relationships are examined utilizing different spatial econometric specifications estimated by maximum likelihood. The regressions are compared with each other via likelihood ratio tests, and the spatial Durbin model is found to be the most appropriate one suggesting that the typical least-squares model is misspecified. Empirical evidence indicates that military expenditure has a positive effect on economic growth with a significant spatial dependence for the time period under consideration.     

Ethnic groups,political exclusion and domestic terrorism

This study examines whether the exclusion of ethnic groups from political power is an important contributing factor to domestic terrorism. To empirically test this question, we employ a negative binomial regression estimation on 130 countries during the period from 1981 to 2005. We find that countries in which certain ethnic populations are excluded from political power are significantly more likely to experience domestic terrorist attacks and to suffer from terrorist casualties; furthermore, ethnic group political exclusion is a more consistent and substantive predictor of domestic terrorist activity than general political repression or economic discrimination.     

The evaluation of a possible future Sino-Japanese armed conflict through the application of the ACEI-model

There is relatively little formal modeling of the economic effects of armed conflicts even though they have substantial economic effects. We set forth a new model, namely the armed conflict economic impact model – ACEI-Model. The model looks at the economic effects of war in three different stages: (i) pre-conflict stage; (ii) armed conflict stage; and (iii) post-conflict stage. The model is based on economic desgrowth (-δ) and other new conceptual indicators. We evaluate an imaginary armed conflict between China and Japan by applying the ACEI-Model.     

Indian Strategic Thinking about East Asia

Since the end of the Cold War, India's strategic horizons have moved beyond its traditional preoccupations in South Asia. India is developing a strategic role in East Asia in particular. At the same time India's strategic thinking has undergone a revolution, as the country that prided itself on non-alignment has moved closer to the West. But India's culture, history and geography still fundamentally shape its worldview. In engaging with East Asia, India is guided by a mosaic of strategic objectives about extending its sphere of influence, developing a multipolar regional system and balancing against China. The interplay of these objectives will frame India's role in East Asia in coming years.     

The Pitfalls of Cross-National Comparison in Conflict Research

Professor Joseph Soeters shows admirable ambition in comparing national styles of conflict resolution and is extremely eager to draw historical lessons from such comparative exercises. However, he gets entangled in national mythmaking as he underestimates the complexity of comparative history of this kind. Particularly the establishment of true causal links between national (strategic) cultures and actual tactical behaviour on the ground is far more difficult than he suggests in his recent book chapter and his reply to my article in this journal.     

The 1958 Anglo-American Mutual Defence Agreement: The Search for Nuclear Interdependence

Written on the 50th anniversary, this article focuses on the negotiations between Britain and the United States which led to the 1958 Mutual Defence Agreement and the beginning of the ‘special nuclear relationship’ which has lasted down to the present day. It is argued that the eventual success of the negotiations had a lot to do with the key roles of Eisenhower and Macmillan but that a transatlantic ‘advocacy coaltion’ of nuclear scientists, defence and intelligence officials also played an important part at the operational level in achieving and subsequently shaping the kind of relationship which developed. Attention is also given to the longer term significance of the agreement, especially in terms of the arguments about its impact on nuclear proliferation.     

海水声速快速高精度测量方法研究

声速是海洋中重要的声学量之一,是影响声波在海洋中传播的最基本的物理参数,掌握精确的声速值在理论研究和工程实践中都具有十分重要的意义。本文采用的测量方案结构简单,通过连续波信号参数估计的方法实现声传播时间测量,进而得到声速值。采用伪随机序列对连续波的调制处理,克服了单频连续波信号在测量中存在的整周期模糊与回波干扰问题。通过构建声速试验平台,进行了系统校准与测量实验,实验结果表明该方法具有测量精度高、响应快速的优点,适合于在水下机动平台上对海洋声速剖面进行快速、高精度的测量。     

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SRI LANKA: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS

In this paper, we employ a VAR analysis to examine the nexus between military spending and economic growth in Sri Lanka which, due to the civil war there, has witnessed a significant increase in military spending over the last three decades while also recording healthy economic growth. The study finds that, compared with non‐military spending, military spending exerts only a minimal positive impact on real GDP. Over a 10‐year period, a 1% increase in non‐military spending increases GDP by 1.6%. In contrast, military spending only increases GDP by 0.05%, suggesting that the economic benefits for Sri Lanka from a sustained peace may be considerable.     

MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Defence expenditures have both costs and benefits to the economy. The costs of defence expenditures are mainly emphasized as opportunity costs. On the other hand, defence spending may have growth‐promoting potential benefits: a rise in defence spending may result in a higher aggregate demand, production and employment. This paper examines empirically the effects of military expenditures on economic growth for Middle Eastern countries and Turkey, for the time‐period 1989–1999. The relationship between military expenditure and economic growth is investigated by using cross‐section and dynamic panel estimation techniques. Empirical analysis indicates that military expenditure enhances economic growth in the Middle Eastern countries and Turkey as a whole.     

Economic Performance And Terrorist Activity In Latin America

We investigate the link between economic performance and terrorism for 18 Latin American countries from 1970 to 2007, taking into account the potentially complex nature of this link. Panel causality analysis findings indicate that during this period, terrorism had no causal effect on economic growth. By contrast, we find that growth reduced terrorism in the less developed but not in the higher developed Latin American economies. We argue that group-specific differences (linked to patterns of economic development) govern this causal heterogeneity. From a series of negative binomial regressions we gain additional support for our findings, while also identifying further determinants of terrorism.