机械系统可靠性设计若干问题探讨

机械系统的可靠性设计是当前可靠性工程界面临的热点和难点问题之一,从分析机械系统可靠性设计的特点和难点入手,探讨了机械系统可靠性建模、分配、预计等机械系统可靠性设计中急需解决的关键问题。     

航天部队试验综合能力评估模型研究

根据航天试验综合能力评估的特点和要求,依据系统工程的理论方法,确定了装备、人员和保障能力为主要评估要素,设置了评估层次和控制点,建立了航天试验综合能力评估模型。该模型由下至上分为3个层次：基础层主要对分系统各岗位人员和所属装备进行评估;分系统层主要对人员素质、装备性能和保障能力进行评估;系统层主要对整个系统的综合试验能力进行评估。通过实例表明该模型大大提高了航天试验综合能力量化评估的准确性。     

安排过渡过程在坦克炮控系统中的应用研究

分析论述了坦克炮控系统的基本结构以及数学模型,提出、设计了坦克炮控系统安排过渡过程的控制方法,并进行了数值仿真。结果表明,该控制方法能较好解决快速性和超调量的矛盾问题。并使得被控对象的参数可调范围变大,控制器的鲁棒性增强。     

试验环境需求分析与验证方法

为构建逼真的试验环境,首先对试验环境构建流程进行了分析,建立了试验环境需求分析框架,介绍了需求分析的背景空间、分析方法和管理与确认方法,研究了试验环境概念模型的构建方法,提出了概念模型验证的原则,并从语义、语法和语用三个方面建立了概念模型的验证指标体系,形成了一套完整的试验环境需求分析与验证的体系结构。该方法为试验环境构建提供一定的参考。     

舰艇编队作战任务优化分配

从舰艇编队的实际作战需求出发,将作战使命分解为多个作战任务,然后分配给相关平台。首先在每个平台只能承担一项任务的前提下,构建了编队作战任务分配的基本模型。在此基础上研究了两平台协同执行任务时效能互补、单平台在同时执行多项任务时武器装备相互干扰等情况,进一步构建了考虑平台间协同效益和平台执行多任务的作战任务分配模型。应用改进的遗传算法给出了编队作战任务分配方案优化选择的具体方法步骤,最后针对一个典型案例进行了仿真计算与分析,验证了三种模型的合理性。     

面向服务的作战仿真模型组合建模方法

为简化模型组合的实现方式,满足多样化作战仿真对模型服务组合的需求,针对作战仿真模型组合规则复杂、基本服务类型相对单一等特点,提出一种基于事件的服务组合BEWSC（Based-Events Web Services Composition）方法。首先定义一种基于MERA(mission-event-restriction-action)规则化语言,在此基础上,采用过程构造子,按照模块化方法对模型服务的组合方案进行描述,并分别从服务的发布者、服务的请求者和推理过程这三个角度对组合服务的执行流程进行具体分析,解决了服务组合表示困难、描述能力不足、模型匹配差异性大和模型组合有效性低等方面问题。     

基于模板的军事概念模型描述与设计

首先分析军事概念建模存在的问题,然后提出两个阶段、四个步骤的建模思路,在此基础上通过基于模板的概念模型描述方法,将概念建模区分为实体元模型、动作元模型、关系元模型、属性元模型和数据元模型,通过对上述元模型的建模完成对仿真对象的概念建模。     

Defence spending and economic growth in South Africa: A supply and demand model*

This paper provides a contribution to the growing corpus of knowledge and understanding of the interaction between economic growth and defence spending in South Africa by specifying a Keynesian simultaneous equation model and estimating the system for the period 1961 to 1997. The model contains a growth equation, a savings equation, a trade balance equation and a military burden equation and when estimated by single equation and systems estimation methods is relatively well specified. There is evidence of an overall negative effect of military spending on the economy over this period, though the significance of individual coefficients is low. There is certainly no evidence of any positive impact, suggesting that cuts in military spending do present an opportunity for improved macroeconomic performance.     

MILITARY SPENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH ASIA: COMMENT AND RECONSIDERATION

In a recent paper in this journal, Wijewerra and Webb study the connection between military spending and gross domestic product (GDP) in a group of five South Asian countries, finding a small but statistically significant positive relationship between military spending and GDP. This paper reviews their approach and proposes an alternative which tries to deal with the problems of omitted variables and variable construction. It finds, in contrast, that a higher share of military spending in GDP is associated with lower growth of GDP per capita.     

Defense Burden and the Effect of Democracy: Evidence from a Spatial Panel Analysis

ABSTRACT

Do democracies spend less on national defense? This paper provides new evidence of the effect of democracy on defense burden based on a Spatial Durbin Model with panel data for 98 countries for the years 1992–2008. While democracy measured by means of an index variable covering the entire range from perfect democracy to perfect autocracy turns out to be insignificant, dummy variables indicating transition to higher levels of democracy reveal a statistically highly significant negative effect of democracy on a country’s defense burden. Allowing for country-specific effects reveals heterogeneity in the effect of democracy across countries. Apart from the effect of democracy, the estimation results indicate strong spatial dependence of military burdens across countries. Moreover, they provide statistical evidence for a peace dividend, for substitution effects in defense spending and for a negative effect on the military burden for countries when they exhibit a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit.