Bayesian inference based on partial monitoring of components with applications to preventive system maintenance

Consider a binary, monotone system of n components. The assessment of the parameter vector, θ, of the joint distribution of the lifetimes of the components and hence of the reliability of the system is often difficult due to scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. For instance, prior knowledge is often of importance and can indeed conveniently be incorporated by the Bayesian approach. It may also be important to continuously extract information from a system currently in operation. This may be useful both for decisions concerning the system in operation as well as for decisions improving the components or changing the design of similar new systems. As in Meilijson [12], life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some others is considered. In addition to data arising from this monitoring scheme, so‐called autopsy data are observed, if not censored. The probabilistic structure underlying this kind of data is described, and basic likelihood formulae are arrived at. A thorough discussion of an important aspect of this probabilistic structure, the inspection strategy, is given. Based on a version of this strategy a procedure for preventive system maintenance is developed and a detailed application to a network system presented. All the way a Bayesian approach to estimation of θ is applied. For the special case where components are conditionally independent given θ with exponentially distributed lifetimes it is shown that the weighted sum of products of generalized gamma distributions, as introduced in Gåsemyr and Natvig [7], is the conjugate prior for θ. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 551–577, 2001.     

建筑消防设施运行可靠性探析

简要阐述了建筑消防设施的主要分类、作用、维护管理要求等,着重分析了消防供电、供水、设施联动、人机协调等方面可靠性存在的问题,从落实检测保养、人员素质、预案演练、监督检查等方面分析问题形成的原因,并提出解决问题的几点措施。     

ISO质量管理体系引入边防检查执法工作的思考

ISO9001是企业有效的质量控制管理体系,在其他行政管理部门中也有应用。在公安边防执法规范化建设工作中,如何对边防检查执法质量进行全程监控,是困扰边防部队执法规范化建设的瓶颈。将ISO9001质量控制管理体系引入边防检查行政执法实践中,有利于实现边防检查行政执法质量的新突破。     

建筑工地消防安全监督检查探讨

针对建筑工地火灾隐患多,火灾事故频发,火灾损失重大的现状,从施工单位忽视消防安全工作的重要性、工作人员消防安全意识淡薄、消防监督执法不充分等几个方面分析建筑工地火灾事故多发的原因,提出了建筑工地消防安全工作对策。     

基于ANSYS软件的管道漏磁场分析

介绍了漏磁场分析的基本理论以及由麦克斯韦方程导出的泊松方程对应的能量泛函,利用基于此理论基础的ANSYS有限元分析软件的ANSYS Multiphysics软件包对管道漏磁场进行模拟仿真,能得出大量缺陷漏磁场数据,这为缺陷漏磁检测定量化打下基础.     

火控系统故障诊断与性能检测设备研究

从设备主要功能、设备硬件设计、检测软件及故障诊断软件设计等方面,系统地分析了检测设备的总体设计方案,功能特点,信号采集、处理与控制等。设计过程突出了理论与实践相结合的设计理念,针对某型火控系统的特点,结合实际研制过程,该方法具有较好的应用推广价值。     

Revisiting inspection game and inspector leadership through reaction networks

The inspection game is a two-player noncooperative game that models a situation where an inspector verifies whether the inspectee complies with the rules (on the assumption that the inspectee has the tendency to violate at least one of the rules). The usual approach in the analysis of this game seeks to find an optimal strategic inspection scheme for each of the two players yielding favorable payoffs. Recently, there have been some developments in the study of such games that use a mathematical structure known as reaction network involving a set of molecular species and the existing reactions among these species. In this paper, we use a reaction network to analyze the inspection game giving an alternative way of modeling the social situation. The molecular species play the role of the players' decision moves and their resulting gain or loss, while the reactions are the encounters of the decisions of the players which, as expected, yield payoffs. We reexamine the dynamics of the inspection game through the lens of reaction network theory and consider various situations that call for more detailed analyses such as equal or unequal reaction rates and inspection leadership. Conditions concerning reaction rates, initial population of decision species, benefits, and costs are determined in order to identify strategies that yield better payoffs both for the inspector and inspectee. These results illustrate practical insights rooted from the formulated simple game models.     

罐顶板声发射检测及其稳定最不利点有限元分析

罐顶板的缺陷检测对于评估立式拱顶罐的使用状况有着重要的意义,它的应用有助于更好地掌握立式拱顶罐的安全状况与可靠程度。将声发射法应用于罐顶板材料的检测,并对相关的设备仪器及操作流程进行介绍。为了给检测结果提供对照和参考,利用有限元分析法对拱顶瓜皮板的稳定最不利点进行了初步分析和定位。分析结果表明：顶板中上部肋板围成的区域可能会产生稳定最不利点,该部位应作为检测时重点关注的区域。     

海港边防检查信息化现状及对策探析

面对“大进大出,快进快出”的海港口岸形势,以信息化方式提高海港边防检查服务水平和口岸管控能力、推进海港边防检查现代勤务模式建设,既是信息时代社会发展的必然要求,也是创新社会管理在海港边防检查工作中的具体体现。就当前海港边防检查信息化存在问题进行分析,深入论述了推进海港边防检查信息化的对策。     

浅谈法治边检建设

＂法治边检＂建设是在党的十八届三中全会提出建设＂法治中国＂目标时代背景下,在提高边检服务水平工作进入深水区、社会各界对边检工作要求日趋严格和多样化形势下,边检机关立足工作实际,顺应时代发展的必然选择。分析＂法治边检＂的理论内涵和面临形势,总结法治边检建设现状和存在问题,从构建体系型边检、有限型边检、效能型边检、责任型边检、服务型边检、信用型边检、开放型边检、廉洁型边检等方面对法治边检体系建设进行了探讨。