基于状态的装备可靠度模型及其应用

为应用基于状态的装备可靠度模型,实现对装备的精确维修,采用了比例风险模型（Proportional Hazards Model,PHM）将装备的年龄信息及检测所得状态信息融入系统的风险函数中。考虑到样本包含截尾数据的情形,应用极大似然估计方法对模型中的参数进行了估计以及相应的模型检验。通过对该方法在一个实际案例中应用的详细分析,验证了方法的可行性。     

基于CBQ技术的带宽管理机制

为了能够合理有效地管理网络带宽资源,解决日益增加的网络流量和带宽资源紧张的矛盾,首先研究了基于CBQ技术进行网络带宽管理的基本原理,然后仿真分析了该带宽管理机制中的流量分类、带宽分配、链路共享以及对链路上空闲带宽管理等方面的特性。结果表明,基于CBQ技术的带宽管理机制,可实现灵活的基于分层结构的流量分类方式,对链路上流量进行精确的带宽控制,使用独特的带宽借用特性管理网络上的空闲带宽,在保护关键应用性能的同时大大地提高了带宽利用率。     

现代防空火控系统的现状及发展方向

参照国外现代陆用防空火控系统现状 ,结合国内陆用防空火控系统研制情况 ,以功能模块概念阐述现代陆用防空火控系统的组成及各组成分系统的功能。结合近代反空袭作战特点 ,探讨未来陆用防空火控系统的发展方向     

The case for Bush revisionism: Reevaluating the legacy of America’s 43rd president

This article reassesses the foreign policy legacy of George W. Bush in light of the emerging historical record of his administration. We conclude that, whereas Bush’s foreign policy was in widespread disrepute when he left office in 2009, that reputation is likely to improve – perhaps significantly – in the coming years. We identify six particular arguments that lend credence to an emerging ‘Bush revisionism.’ To be clear, we do not necessarily argue that the balance sheet on Bush’s foreign policy was positive, but the arguments presented here are likely to generate a more sympathetic and favorable historical assessment of Bush’s presidency over time.     

Reliability bounds for the NBUE distributions

In this paper, we study upper and lower bounds on the reliability in new better than used in expectation (NBUE) life distribution class with fixed first two moments. By a constructive proof, we determine the upper bounds on the reliability analytically in different regions and show that these bounds are sharp. For the lower bounds, similar results are obtained except in one region. For that region, a conjecture is given for further study. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 781–797, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10035     

Balancing a one‐way corridor capacity and safety‐oriented reliability: A stochastic optimization approach for metro train timetabling

In urban rail transit systems of large cities, the headway and following distance of successive trains have been compressed as much as possible to enhance the corridor capacity to satisfy extremely high passenger demand during peak hours. To prevent train collisions and ensure the safety of trains, a safe following distance of trains must be maintained. However, this requirement is subject to a series of complex factors, such as the uncertain train braking performance, train communication delay, and driver reaction time. In this paper, we propose a unified mathematical framework to analyze the safety‐oriented reliability of metro train timetables with different corridor capacities, that is, the train traffic density, and determine the most reliable train timetable for metro lines in an uncertain environment. By employing a space‐time network representation in the formulations, the reliability‐based train timetabling problem is formulated as a nonlinear stochastic programming model, in which we use 0‐1 variables to denote the time‐dependent velocity and position of all involved trains. Several reformulation techniques are developed to obtain an equivalent mixed integer programming model with quadratic constraints (MIQCP) that can be solved to optimality by some commercial solvers. To improve the computational efficiency of the MIQCP model, we develop a dual decomposition solution framework that decomposes the primal problem into several sets of subproblems by dualizing the coupling constraints across different samples. An exact dynamic programming combined with search space reduction strategies is also developed to solve the exact optimal solutions of these subproblems. Two sets of numerical experiments, which involve a relatively small‐scale case and a real‐world instance based on the operation data of the Beijing subway Changping Line are implemented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approaches.     

Precision cyber weapon systems: An important component of a responsible national security strategy?

Given the advances made in conventional weapon capabilities, precision should by now be the accepted and expected norm in cyberspace as well. In this article I argue that developing precision cyber weapon systems, to be used during a lawful conflict, can be an important part of a responsible national security strategy to reduce the amount of violence and physical destruction in conflicts. I first describe a precision cyber weapon system in a military context. I then present three compelling rationales for the development of precision cyber weapon systems based on ethical, operational, and financial considerations. To support the position, I address several arguments that have been levied against their development. Thereafter I present several recommendations for a way ahead.     

武警初级指挥学院应树立“院本科研”的指导观

从武警初级指挥学院的实际情况出发,提出了“院本科研”的指导观,并从科研积极性的调动、科研课题选择、分层分类指导等三个方面对如何加强武警初级指挥学院的科研指导做了探讨。     

基于一步延时的航迹起始改进算法

针对现有多目标航迹起始算法工程实践性不强的特点,研究了一种基于一步延时的航迹起始算法,并在分析该算法的基础上,针对该算法计算量随目标数目增加而成指数增长的不足,对其算法进行了改进,提出了一种双重滤波的一步延时的航迹起始算法。仿真结果表明,该算法提高了航迹的正确起始概率,减少了计算量,具有较好的工程应用前景。     

生物柴油作化工溶剂的水解性能研究

由脂肪酸甲酯组成的生物柴油是一种替代传统苯类化工溶剂的理想替代物,但易水解的特点制约了其广泛应用。通过表面活性剂的复配技术,考察表面活性剂对生物柴油水解的影响。实验结果表明,生物柴油在碱性介质中易水解,温度升高水解加剧。而阳离子、非离子表面活性剂及其复配物具有很强的抑制生物柴油水解的能力。