Insurgency by the numbers I: A reconsideration of the ecology of communist success in jiangxi province,China

Theorizing about Taliban operations in Afghanistan has its limits and it is possible that Kabul-centric strategies do not adequately address the unique circumstances of each region in the country. How exactly has the Taliban gone about attaining its objectives in Kandahar province and how have those approaches evolved since 2002? And how have the Taliban adapted to coalition forces' attempts to compete with the insurgency and stamp it out? The answers to these questions are critical in the formulation of any counterinsurgency approach to Afghanistan.     

航天测控系统任务可靠性分析的EOOPN模型

提出了一种可用于航天测控系统任务可靠性分析的扩展面向对象Petri网（extend object-oriented Petri nets, EOOPN）模型,旨在对给定的航天测控方案进行可靠性评估分析。针对问题特点明确了OOPN扩展思路,给出了EOOPN模型的形式化定义、运行规则和建模步骤,模型通过引入公共库所、激发弧、消息变迁和消息处理函数等概念,体现了面向对象的思想,具有很好的层次性和模块性。所建立的EOOPN模型能够完整的描述航天测控系统的组成和任务特点。通过对算例模型仿真运行,表明实验结果具有良好收敛性,与Markov解析值对比误差在1%以内,从而验证了模型的有效性。     

坦克排气流场三维数值计算研究

应用FLUENT软件对某型号坦克排气管三维流场进行了CFD分析,采用标准k-ε湍流模型,应用SIMPLE算法对排气流场进行了数值计算,并将计算结果与测试结果进行对比。研究结果表明,排气出口计算值与测试值的相对误差小于7%,所使用的数值计算方法可用于排气流场的数值计算及分析,基本满足工程设计的需要。     

潜艇指挥自动化系统理论难题分析

分析了信息化战争条件下指挥自动化系统重要性,介绍了指挥自动化系统的概念、内涵和系统流程。针对系统流程几个关键环节和潜艇的特殊性要求以及潜艇指挥自动化系统的作战使命,从信息环境、数据融合、辅助决策、系统安全、人-机交互等五个方面对潜艇指挥自动化系统作战使用中的薄弱环节和理论难题进行了分析和论述,最后论及潜艇指挥自动化系统的前景。     

弹药库防静电方法研究

根据弹药库静电危险场所的分类等级,以形成静电危害的3个基本条件为依据,讨论了弹药库防静电危害常用措施:设施设备静电接地、防静电工作台、人体静电防护、铺设导电(或防静电)地面以及各自防静电要求.这些措施为防止和消除弹药库的静电危害提供了根本保障.     

美国2014年《四年防务评估报告》特点

2014年3月4日,美国国防部向国会提交了2014年版《四年防务评估报告》和《2015财年国防预算报告》。《四年防务评估报告》更新了再平衡战略,为美军建设提出了优先发展方向,要求美军联合部队向“更小型化”转型,以满足未来军事行动需求。     

一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

Analysis of hydrodynamic characteristics of unmanned underwater vehicle moving close to the sea bottom

The accurate research on the hydrodynamics of unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV), which moves close to the sea bottom, has a great significance for its maneuverability. The structured grid of the computational models with different distances to the sea bottom and attack angles is generated by Ansys ICEM, and the flow field near the sea bottom is simulated using CFX. The characteristics of the drag, lift, pitching moment influenced by the distance to sea bottom and the attack angle are studied. The result shows that the drag coefficient increases with the decrease of distance, while it increases with the increase of attack angle. There exists attraction force when UUV moves close to the sea bottom, and the attraction force increases with the decrease in distance. The lift coefficient increases with the increase in attack angle. The absolute value of the pitching moment coefficient increases with the decrease in distance and the increase in attack angle.     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014