In Search of the ‘X’ Factor: Morale and the Study of Strategy

A functional conceptualisation of morale is proposed, which focuses its meaning on motivation and the willingness to act rather than mood and group dynamics. Morale, it is argued, emerges from the subtle interrelationships of the many factors known to affect military means. It can be assessed both qualitatively and quantitatively, allowing the interaction between morale and policy to be explored in a manner that facilitates insight into the strategic process. A case study from the North African campaign of World War II is presented to explore in detail the relationship between morale and the art of war – strategy.     

The ‘War on Terrorism’: What Does it Mean to Win?

Abstract

The war on al-Qaeda and its affiliates appears to be endless but every war must end. Winding down the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq has been difficult, but both were embedded in what was then called the ‘war on terrorism.’ What does ‘success’ in that war mean? With the death of bin Laden and the increase in drone operations, how far is the US from achieving it? Can this war end? The article analyzes the ongoing US response to the 9/11 attacks in historical context, revealing four patterns common to all prolonged wars: means become ends, tactics become strategy, boundaries are blurred, and the search for a perfect peace replaces reality. It concludes by laying out an effective strategy for ending the war.     

WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

Nuclear optimists and pessimists disagree on whether the odds of nuclear war are low or high. This viewpoint assesses the odds of nuclear war over the past sixty-six years, exploring three pathways to nuclear war: an international crisis leading directly to nuclear war, an accident or misperception leading to nuclear escalation or nuclear retaliation against an imaginary attack, and a general conventional war leading to nuclear war. The assessment is based on the application of Bayes's theorem and other statistical reasoning and finds that the expected probability of nuclear war during this historical period was greater than 50 percent. This level of risk is unacceptably high. It is therefore urgent that effective measures be taken to substantially reduce the risk of nuclear war.     

HOW WAS THE COLD WAR WON?

Reagan's Secret War: The Untold Story of His Fight to Save the World from Nuclear Disaster, by Martin Anderson and Annelise Anderson. Crown Publishers, 2009. 464 pages, $32.50.

The Rebellion of Ronald Reagan: A History of the End of the Cold War, by James Mann. Viking, 2009. 410 pages, $27.95.     

虚拟现实技术在军事领域的应用及对未来战争的影响

虚拟现实是一种全新的人—机交互环境,它为人类提供了一种全新的认识世界、改造世界的手段。介绍了虚拟现实的基本概念、特性、分类、构成、虚拟现实技术在军事领域的应用及虚拟现实在未来战争中的影响。     

浅谈《孙子兵法》在部队安全防事故中的应用

《孙子兵法》中所蕴含的军队管理理念对部队的安全防事故工作有着高度的借鉴意义。从各级指挥员是部队安全防事故工作的主导,有效预防各类事故案件指挥员应具备综合的管理素质,明确部队安全防事故工作是全体官兵的共同责任三个方面,对《孙子兵法》在部队安全防事故中应用的合理性进行了分析。     

A chessboard model of the U‐boat war in the Atlantic with applications to signals intelligence

This paper uses a simple Monte Carlo model to analyze the influence of signals intelligence on the Second World War's Battle of the Atlantic. The principle measure of effectiveness is the number of U‐boat days of attack to which convoys were subjected. A secondary measure is the number of convoyed ships sunk. The model is validated against historical data and then used to explore the effectiveness of the two sides' signals intelligence. Allied use of signals intelligence is shown to have been capable of completely offsetting German use of signals intelligence, and then some. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

《孙子兵法》“令之以文，齐之以武”治军思想对院校学员队管理的启示

孙子兵法治军思想的核心是“令之以文,齐之以武”,用现代的观点来解读就是“以情带兵、依法治军”的思想,其对我们的工作实践有重要的启示意义。结合院校实际,抓好学员队的管理工作就是要“以情带兵、依法治队”,队干部只要把握好使用二者的尺度,就能带出一支纪律严明、充满活力的部队,营造出一个育人成才的和谐氛围。