French war plans, 1914: The ‘Balance of Power Paradox’

Historians have noted that both German and French war preparation in 1914 fell victim to the inadequacies of traditional threat-based planning: vulnerability to ‘threat deception’ which caused each to underestimate or mischaracterize the threat; a tendency to ‘mirror-image’ by fitting intelligence into preconceived notions of how the enemy was expected to behave; and ‘group think’ that discouraged a serious consideration of alternative scenarios. This article applies the ‘Balance of Power Paradox’ to explain why, at the dawn of the twentieth century, war planning in both Germany and France was driven by an acute sense of weakness which encouraged each side to fashion highly ‘risk acceptant’ strategies. In particular, he examines why and how French commander-in-chief General Joseph Joffre evolved and rationalized his audacious, and disastrous, Plan XVII to leverage French weaknesses and prevent the stronger German Army from bringing the full weight of its military strength to bear against France. The potential implication of this historical vignette is that leaders, and by extension military planners, of both strong and weak states focus on the constraints faced by their opponents, and assume that they can avoid the limitations of their position, while their opponent cannot.     

一种对时钟偏差不敏感的无源RFID标签编解码算法

基于我国自主射频识别空中接口协议GJB 7377.1-2011,提出了一种对时钟偏差不敏感的无源RFID标签编解码算法。该算法充分考虑了时钟频率偏差、计数误差、分频误差等对编解码的影响,推导出了标签正确编解码所需的时钟约束条件,并得到了标签编解码的基本思路和方法。仿真结果表明,提出的编解码算法对标签时钟精度要求较低,只要时钟频率大于1.60 MHz,即可满足要求,大大降低了硬件实现的难度和复杂度,与同类实现方式相比,功耗降低了近50%。     

载体干扰磁场补偿方法

获得载体航行路径上各点地磁场的精确测量值是地磁匹配导航的前提,而载体上各种干扰磁场的存在会引起磁力仪输出的偏差,影响匹配的精度,因此必须对载体干扰磁场进行补偿。在分析载体干扰磁场特性的基础上,提出利用矢量测量值对地磁场总场值进行补偿的方法。该方法首先根据矢量磁力仪的测量模型得到关于载体磁场参数的非线性方程,然后采用非线性参数估计方法估计出精确的载体干扰磁场系数,最后再利用估计结果对测量值进行补偿。通过仿真对该方法的有效性进行研究,并设计了半实物实验对其实用性进行验证。结果表明采用本文提出的方法补偿后地磁场总场值的测量误差在20nT以内,而且该方法参数估计精度高,应用方便,可以有效地对导航载体干扰磁场进行补偿。     

半预制破片PELE弹丸对武装直升机毁伤效能

为研究半预制破片PELE弹丸对武装直升机的毁伤效能,选取代表性的阿帕奇武装直升机为研究对象,建立了阿帕奇武装直升机关键部件驾驶舱和发动机舱的等效模型,在此基础上应用ANSYS/LS-DYNA就半预制破片PELE弹丸对阿帕奇武装直升机的毁伤效能进行了数值分析.结果表明:半预制破片PELE弹丸能有效穿透阿帕奇武装直升机的防护装甲,在穿透防护靶后弹丸壳体大面积碎裂,产生大量具有较高轴向剩余速度和一定径向飞散速度的破片,形成一个大面积的破片场,这些破片及弹丸剩余部分可对武装直升机内部人员及仪器设备造成有效毁伤,极大地增强了PELE弹丸的毁伤效能.     

A model of the international arms market∗

Sales of arms are a significant component of international trade and raise a range of pressing policy issues. After a short review of the market, this paper provides a formal model of the trade which allows for competing forward‐looking suppliers whose welfare depends on both the economic benefits from the sales and the security repercussions of recipient behaviour. The recipient's behaviour depends on its military capability, a function of the stock of arms it has acquired. We first examine a myopic recipient, whose behaviour depends on current stocks, then a forward looking recipient for whom questions of the time‐consistency and the credibility of supplier threats to embargo or promises to resupply become crucial. Finally we examine the impact of supplier cooperation of the sort currently being discussed in the UN Security Council.     

Investigating optimal replacement of aging air force systems

An availability‐oriented approach has been developed to decide when to replace an aging system. For an existing system, it is optimal to operate another year if and only if the incremental cost per available year is less than the lifetime average cost per available year of a new aircraft. We illustrate our approach using United States Air Force KC‐135 tanker data. In demonstrating our approach, we find it will be optimal to replace the KC‐135 by the end of the decade.     

A LONG‐RUN ANALYSIS OF DEFENCE SPENDING IN THE NATO COUNTRIES (1960–99)

This paper analyses the long‐run demand for defence output through a homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999. We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income, external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use time‐series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We further consider individual country functions related to one another through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account explicitly the connections between members of an alliance.     

Military Spending and Income Inequality:Evidence on Cointegration and Causality for Turkey,1963–2007

This paper investigates a series of unit root, cointegration and causality tests to ascertain the direction of causality between the growth of GNP and defence expenditure in Turkey for the years 1955–2000. The main conclusion is that there is a long‐run equilibrium relationship between GNP and defence expenditures. Furthermore, the short run causality test indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between variables, from defence expenditure to economic growth. In order to see the effect of a shock, we employed impulse response analyses. The results show that GNP decreased during the period then output finally recovered from the initial shock to defence expenditures.     

长方体类光学元件形位误差高精度测量方法

如何实现长方体元件光学面形位误差的高精度测量以及怎样利用测量数据对这些误差进行修正加工是制造过程中的主要问题。提出一种基于波面干涉的长方体类光学元件形位误差测量方法,借助大口径干涉仪和高精度端齿盘搭建测量系统,实现了长方体类光学元件1μm/400mm精度的平行度和垂直度测量,获得了高精度的形位误差综合分布数据,并利用磁流变、小磨头数控抛光等现代光学加工手段实现了此类光学元件的高精度加工。     

小波域非加性失真函数设计

在最小化嵌入失真隐写算法框架的基础上,提出了一种基于小波域的非加性失真函数图像隐写算法。首先在离散小波域设计了加性失真函数,主要考虑了亮度、频率和纹理掩蔽因子对载体失真的影响;然后结合模型矫正的方法对设计的加性失真函数进行了非加性矫正;最后结合网格码设计了隐写算法,将嵌入信息对载体的修改最小化,并且集中在人眼不敏感区域。实验结果显示,方案具有良好的视觉不可见性,且能抵抗空域SPAM特征隐写分析的攻击。