The stability of the nuclear nonproliferation norm: a critique of norm-contestation theory

This article argues that the nuclear nonproliferation norm (NNPN) is a social fact with a relatively independent life of its own and that it has a powerful impact on the behavior of both nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS). It challenges the application of critical constructivist research on norms to the NNPN and the idea that its legitimacy and structural power depend on contestation “all the way down.” State and non-state actors play an important role in explaining the dynamics of the NNPN, but agential constructivism runs the danger of “throwing the baby out with the bath water,” neglecting the structural impact of the NNPN on state behavior. The article examines the limitations of norm-contestation theory, arguing that some norms are more resistant to contestation than others. The NNPN is more difficult to contest than new norms (such as the Responsibility to Protect) because it is rooted in fifty years of nonproliferation nuclear diplomacy. The US-India nuclear deal is not a case of “norm change” but a violation of the NNPN. The “core” of the NNPN has not changed since the US-India nuclear deal. The conflict confronting NWS and NNWS is about the implementation of “type 2” norms (organizing principles) and “type 3” norms (standardized procedures), and not about the “hard core” of the NNPN.     

Mirror,mirror on the wall,who is the most offensive of them all? – Explaining the offensive bias in military tactical thinking

This article explores why the offensive predominates military tactical thinking. With survey results showing an offensive bias among 60 per cent of senior Swedish officers and as many as 80 per cent in the case of the army, it is clear that this is not just a problem of the past but is equally relevant today. The article asks why there is a tendency to perceive and understand offensive tactics as the preferred choice and the way to conduct battle that should be encouraged and preferred. Drawing on existing research and the findings of a pilot study, ten propositions for why the offensive bias exists are tested using a mixed-method approach. Based on the findings, the article develops a model to understand why the offensive dominates military tactical thinking. It is found that the two key constitutive factors behind the offensive bias are military culture and education. These factors most directly and profoundly influence an officer’s identity, perceptions, and thinking. Military culture and education, in turn, work as a prism for four other factors: military history, the theory and principles of war, doctrine and TTPs, and psychological factors.     

电磁发射弹丸飞行弹道仿真

针对电磁发射弹丸飞行弹道进行仿真研究,在建立刚体六自由度飞行弹道模型的基础上,采用时频分析和涡流分析方法,建立电磁-动力学耦合模型分析弹丸出膛时由于膛内振动带来的炮口扰动,采用动网格技术建立电磁-气动耦合模型分析弹托分离产生的气动扰动,从而得到了电磁发射弹丸的飞行弹道模型。以得克萨斯大学先进技术研究所设计的IAT-HVP为例,仿真分析了弹丸以1117 m/s初速、0°射角出膛时弹丸出口扰动对弹体速度和气动特性的影响,并得到其飞行200 m的弹道曲线。仿真结果表明,受电磁发射一体化弹丸出口扰动的影响,弹体落点相比理想弹道产生了24%的偏差,其中炮口扰动引起的偏差最大,其次是弹托分离。     

相似分布特性准则下的高斯混合项聚类-合并算法

针对高斯混合模型估计非高斯系统时高斯混合项呈指数级增长问题,提出一种基于相似分布特性准则的聚类-合并方法。通过分析高斯混合项的分布特性,基于扩展积分均方误差代价函数搜索最优置信范围,并对混合项进行高斯聚类,进而获得具有不同分布特性的高斯簇。为防止高斯簇间对高斯子项的重复利用,引入局部最近邻思想对交叉高斯项进行重新分配。采用并行多元素合并方法对高斯簇中的混合项进行合并,在保证无偏性基础上减少下一时刻混合项数量。仿真结果表明,改进算法在保证跟踪精度的同时还可有效提高算法效率。     

超声速气流中液体横向射流一次破碎过程

发展显微成像方法获得空间分辨率为1.57 μm/pixel的近场射流瞬态图像,分析超声速气流中液体横向射流表面波演化规律。采用流体体积法获得射流的三维形态及近场流场特征,研究近场流场结构及气液作用。射流的一次破碎过程主要有表面破碎和液柱破碎。其中表面破碎由气液剪切引起的K-H不稳定主导,液柱破碎由气液加速引起的R-T不稳定主导;射流柱表面局部压力的脉动是诱导产生射流迎风面表面波并促使其沿射流方向发展的主要原因;射流柱与超声速气流作用形成背风面回流,近壁面液雾主要由表面破碎及背风面回流输运的液滴组成。     

反电动势对无扰载荷航天器精确定向的影响

无扰载荷航天器中非接触式作动器反电动势会引起有效载荷模块与支持模块之间的耦合,影响有效载荷模块的精确定向性能。通过建立无扰载荷航天器的耦合动力学模型,分析非接触式作动器反电动势对有效载荷模块精确定向性能的影响。考虑六支杆立方构型无扰载荷接口,结合拉格朗日方程和牛顿欧拉方法建立有效载荷模块平台动力学模型。推导非接触式作动器的输出力模型,并引入有效载荷模块平台动力学模型,给出考虑非接触式作动器反电动势的耦合动力学模型。将支持模块上飞轮动静不平衡引起的谐振作为干扰力矩,建立了无扰载荷航天器在轨定向状态的Simulink仿真模型。仿真结果表明,反电动势系数越大,干扰力矩对有效载荷模块的影响越大,有效载荷模块精确定向精度越低。     

逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾试验下Burr部件的可靠性分析

在逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾试验下,研究了Burr部件寿命参数及可靠性指标的极大似然估计和Bayes估计.利用简单迭代方法,给出了寿命参数和可靠性指标的极大似然估计的数值解.然后利用Lindely Bayes近似算法得到了平方损失下寿命参数以及可靠性指标的Bayes估计.最后,运用Monte-Carlo方法对各估计结果作了模拟比较,结果表明Bayes估计较极大似然估计的误差小.     

基于信息需求的情报支持效能分析

经典的侦察与监测(S&R)系统效能分析方法存在模型难以建立、结果不准确等问题。考虑到S&R系统的目的是提供情报支持,提出一种基于信息需求的S&R系统情报支持效能分析方法。该方法以用户的信息需求为度量基准量,比较S&R系统性能对信息需求的满足度,并以此满足度作为S&R系统效能度量的指标。仿真实例表明了新方法的有用性。     

车联网环境下车辆协同高精度定位研究进展

车辆位置信息是许多智能交通应用的基础,如车辆导航、路径规划和车辆编队等.现有研究中融合单车车载多源传感器的定位方法无法有效解决城市峡谷、隧道和立交桥等卫星信号不可用条件下的车辆定位问题.围绕车辆高精度定位进行了综合评述,主要深入研究分析了车辆协同定位技术.首先分析了单车自主定位的关键技术及其主要应用场景;然后对车辆协同...     

融合初值校准与二阶逼近的单星测频定位算法

为减小单星测频定位的误差,提出一种融合初值校准与二阶逼近的单星测频定位算法。该算法在卫星接收信号多普勒频移为零的时间点,通过测距获得卫星到定位目标的距离信息,利用距离信息修正轨道平面与定位目标的几何关系,为初值的选取提供校准手段;将校准的初值代入含二阶级数的定位方程泰勒展开式,通过较少次数的迭代得到定位目标的真实位置,从而降低定位的算法复杂度,提高定位精度。仿真结果表明,所提出的算法与多普勒单星定位算法相比,迭代次数和定位误差大幅度减小,其实现简单、计算量少、误差小,在单星定位研究领域具有较高的理论价值和实用价值。