L—R型模糊数及其在装备贮存可靠性研究中的应用

由于数据不足,在全寿命周期的初始阶段使用传统的可靠性分析技术,难以对装备的贮存可靠性进行研究。在模糊集理论的基础上,应用L-R型模糊数的模糊故障树分析技术,探讨了装备贮存可靠性的研究问题。     

TERRORISM AND TOURISM: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Using a time series method called ‘transfer function’, this paper examines the effect of terrorism on tourism in Turkey. The results indicate that there exists a negative but small impact of terrorism, which is observed within approximately one year. However, terrorist attacks in Turkey have accounted for a reduction of six million foreign tourists over the last nine years. Moreover, the economic cost of terrorism in the tourism industry was more than $700 million in 2006. However, terrorist attacks in continental Europe and America, and an active war involving a neighboring country, had no effects on tourism in Turkey.     

Kinetic responses to global terrorism: Lessons from Africa

This essay recalls the immediate and longer-term responses of the US and its allies to the events of 9/11. It contends that the die for contemporary developments in transnational terrorism was cast in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 – in particular the launching of sustained ‘anti-terrorist’ military combat operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and more covert ‘kinetic’ operations elsewhere in the Middle East and Africa. The essay seeks specifically to expose the counter-productivity of using military operations as the primary antidote to transnational terrorism. Focusing on the African ‘laboratory’ and the spread of transnational terrorism and Islamic militancy, particularly in West and East Africa, the essay concludes that radical Islamists have mastered the ‘battle of the narrative’ and that the Western penchant for dispensing a kinetic brand of medication is feeding rather than fighting the virus of global terrorism.     

L(0,1)模态导波在小管径管道弯头处的散射特性

采用实验和有限元模拟的方法研究了L(0,1)模态导波在小管径管道弯头处的模态转换和反射、透射特性,分别使用不同频率的激励信号对含不同弯曲半径弯头的管道进行检测。研究结果表明:L(0,1)模态导波在管道弯头处发生模态转换,转换成F(1,1)模态,并且其偏振方向与弯头拱背—拱腹方向一致;随着检测频率和弯曲半径的增大,反射F(1,1)模态呈减小趋势,透射F(1,1)模态呈非单调变化趋势;反射L(0,1)模态导波呈减小趋势,透射L(0,1)模态导波呈增大趋势;当检测频率或弯曲半径增大到一定程度时,两参数的变化对反射F(1,1)模态、反射L(0,1)模态和透射L(0,1)模态的影响不大。实验结果与模拟结果吻合度高,验证了模拟结果的正确性。研究结论为检测小管径含弯头管道提供了理论指导。     

L1-analysis稀疏重构在阵列信号恢复及波达角估计中的应用

通过适当的空域稀疏化构造了可对阵列接收信号进行冗余稀疏表示的阵列流形矩阵,建立了相应的L1-analysis稀疏重构模型用于恢复阵列接收信号,重点证明了该流形矩阵是满足L1-analysis 稀疏重构条件的紧框架,从理论上保证了将L1-analysis 稀疏重构用于阵列接收信号恢复及波达角估计问题的合理性,并推导出信号恢复误差的理论上界。利用在微波暗室环境中采集的实测数据,结合MUSIC算法进行实验验证,结果表明基于L1-analysis 稀疏重构的信号恢复对提高低信噪比环境下的波达角估计性能是有效的。     

Laplace分布的均值被半序约束时的极大似然估计

讨论了Laplaoe分布中,方差已知的情况下,均值θ在简单半序约束下的最小L_1保序回归(ML_1IR),就最小L_1保序回归的唯一性以及一些其它性质予以了讨论,并且给出了计算方法。     

Do migrant remittances react to bouts of terrorism?

This paper examines the short-run behaviour of migrant remittances in the face of terrorism. Using monthly data for post 9/11 terrorist attacks in Pakistan, the study finds evidence of increase in the volume of remittances sent from abroad. This increase is evident in the aggregate, as well as for the three main source regions of North America, the Persian Gulf and Europe. The positive association holds for all the top five migrant-hosting countries of Pakistan. The findings point in favour of an altruistic behaviour of migrant remittances at the macroeconomic level.     

On optimal system designs in reliability‐economics frameworks

Reliability Economics is a field that can be defined as the collection of all problems in which there is tension between the performance of systems of interest and their cost. Given such a problem, the aim is to resolve the tension through an optimization process that identifies the system which maximizes some appropriate criterion function (e.g. expected lifetime per unit cost). In this paper, we focus on coherent systems of n independent and identically distributed (iid) components and mixtures thereof, and characterize both a system's performance and cost as functions of the system's signature vector (Samaniego, IEEE Trans Reliabil (1985) 69–72). For a given family of criterion functions, a variety of optimality results are obtained for systems of arbitrary order n. Approximations are developed and justified when the underlying component distribution is unknown. Assuming the availability of an auxiliary sample of N component failure times, the asymptotic theory of L‐estimators is adapted for the purpose of establishing the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators of the expected ordered failure times of the n components of the systems under study. These results lead to the identification of ε‐optimal systems relative to the chosen criterion function. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

‘Full spectrum dominance’: Donald Rumsfeld,the Department of Defense,and US irregular warfare strategy, 2001–2008

This article examines the evolution of US irregular warfare (IW) doctrine and practice from 2001 onwards. It argues that, after 9/11, top-tier civilian policymakers in the US Department of Defense (DoD) and across the US government developed a heightened awareness of asymmetric threats and non-conventional forms of warfare, especially those shaped by contemporary globalisation. The result was a gradual turn towards irregular warfare, led by Rumsfeld and the DoD, designed to ensure ‘full spectrum dominance’ across all modes of conflict. This pre-dated the insurgency in Iraq and the promotion of counterinsurgency in the US Army by General David Petraeus and others. Policymakers' reluctance to acknowledge the insurgency in Iraq was not down to a failure to understand the concept of IW, but because they had viewed Iraq in conventional terms for so many years and were reluctant to admit their mistake.     

The ballot or the bomb belt: the roots of female suicide terrorism before and after 9/11

ABSTRACT

In recent years, an upward trend in terrorist attacks has mirrored an increase in suicide attacks. According to our preliminary analysis, the events of September 11^th marked a sea change in the number of terrorist attacks. While a rich literature has evaluated why terrorists participate in suicide attacks, none have considered the uptick in volume after 9/11, and fewer yet have considered how female fighters may be contributing to this. We evaluate how both structural and female-specific factors affect the likelihood of female fighter suicide attacks. Recent literature discovered a trend in terrorist groups using females as suicide bombers due to cultural norms that permit them to get closer to targets. We test our theory using data from the Chicago Project on Security and Threats Suicide Attack Database (CPOST-SAD) and various datasets from the Quality of Government (QOG) compendium for the 1986–2016 time period. We construct a series of models that consider both female-specific and structural factors that could explain variation in the number of female suicide attacks. Our results indicate that our models encompass relatively stable patterns. Female political empowerment, female educational attainment, and female employment rates are significant and positive in our post-9/11 models, indicating that they may increase female suicide attacks. Democracy is a relevant structural factor and generally yields a positive effect on female suicide attacks across both time periods and multiple models. Ethnic fractionalization is significant in both time periods but yields a negative effect before 9/11 and a positive effect in the later period.