Using strategic culture to understand participation in expeditionary operations: Australia,Poland, and the coalition against the Islamic State

This article investigates how strategic culture influenced the decision-making of Australia and Poland regarding the global coalition against the Islamic State. In the coalition, Australia has followed its tradition of active participation in United States-led operations, while Poland has embarked on a more cautious line, thereby breaking with its previous policy of active participation. The article examines how Australian and Polish responses to the coalition were shaped by five cultural elements: dominant threat perception, core task of the armed forces, strategic partners, experiences of participating in coalitions of the willing, and approach to the international legality of expeditionary operations. It finds that Australia and Poland differed on all five elements but that the major differences are found in dominant threat perception and core task of the armed forces.     

美关岛基地战略前景分析

关岛是美军在西太平洋地区的重要战略支撑点,既是战略轰炸机基地,又是海军在西太主要的作战、后勤保障中心,还是海军陆战队的集结基地,军力可有效辐射西太地区。对于美军来说,关岛具有政治可持续性、地理位置优越、自身规模适宜等自身优势,同时也面临着远程打击威胁增多、军力部署集中与分散两难、盟友顾虑被抛弃等问题。美国将持续加大对关岛的军事力量建设投入,进一步加强关岛在西太的军事核心地位。     

基于状态空间模型的航天器装配角偏误差研究

装配过程的误差建模是分析装配误差的重要手段之一。通过分析影响航天器装配结果的尺寸和形位误差、装夹定位误差,将其装配的偏差源分为夹具装夹误差和舱段制造误差两类。并将不同形式的误差通过虚拟夹具的概念进行了统一的表达,进而基于误差流理论针对航天器舱段建立其误差传播的状态空间模型,求出了该过程的状态空间表达式,应用该模型对装配过程中的角偏误差进行了分析。将分析得到的结果同蒙特卡洛仿真的结果进行了比较,两种方法的相对误差小于3%,说明了该方法的可行性。该方法的优势在于它不仅可以分析复杂装配过程,还可以对各工位的装配效果进行观测,从而进行向后分析。     

Conflict and fiscal capacity

We examine the role of war in retarding state fiscal capacity in developing countries, measured by tax revenue ratios to GDP. We build a simple theoretical model of a factionalized state, where patronage substitutes for common interest public goods, along with violent contestation over a rent or prize. Our dynamic panel empirical analysis applied to 79 developing countries, during 1980–2010, indicates that war, especially civil war, retards fiscal capacity, along with imperfect democracy, political repression, poor governance, and dependence on oil and macroeconomic mismanagement. High intensity conflict is particularly destructive of state capacity. In countries experiencing low intensity wars, other institutional factors may matter more than war. The diminution of fiscal capacity due to war appears less pronounced after the end of the cold war.     

Why internal conflict deteriorates state capacity? Evidence from Colombian municipalities

Previous work has documented a negative correlation between internal conflict and state capacity. We attempt to shed light on mechanisms that underlie this relationship, using data for Colombian municipalities. We rely on identifying heterogeneous effects of different types of violent events on state capacity, taking advantage of variability across municipalities in the prevalence of specific manifestations of conflict and their intensity. Our findings suggest that events making civilians feel targeted affect the state’s capacity to collect taxes, while those reflecting a stronger military capacity of illegal armies, in particular their large-scale attacks, affect the state’s capacity to provide public goods.     

Socioeconomic impact of conflict: state of emergency ruling in Turkey

Uprising tensions during 2010 in eastern and southeastern regions of Turkey provoked arguments about the necessity for a State of Emergency (SOE; ‘Ola?anüstü Hal’ in Turkish) declaration in those regions, with a belief of enduring political sustainability. The discussion is inflamed by a speech of the Nationalist Movement Party’s leader about the suggestion to announce a SOE ruling after the death of 24 Turkish soldiers in Hakkari (a city in the southeast of Turkey) in an attack of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) on the 19 October 2011. Although a new announcement of SOE did not take place, the discussion itself induced the idea behind this paper which is to provide a quantitative analysis of the SOE in Turkey. In fact, the SOE ruling is not a new concept for Turkey and it has been implemented in 13 cities in the eastern and southeastern regions from 1987 to 2002. Although there have been many discussions about the costs of these 15 years of the SOE ruling in terms of military expenditure and, thus, on the national budget, there is a lack of quantitative analytical examination of the economic and social costs of it. Difference-in-differences analysis reveals negative spillover impacts of the SOE, especially on the forced migration, unemployment, and educational investments. The results also show that SOE ruling is an important factor for the underdevelopment of the eastern and southeastern regions in Turkey and, thus, a new SOE will bring enormous inequalities, both economically and socially, and an intensification of the ethnic tensions in Turkey.     

The crisis of American military assistance: strategic dithering and Fabergé Egg armies

ABSTRACT

The United States has provided substantial amounts of military assistance and aid since the end of World War Two. During the Cold War, it proved vital in protecting numerous regimes from communist takeovers. Successful outcomes occurred when American leaders made large initial aid commitments, and the states had the capacity and political willpower to use it effectively. However, Vietnam was an example of how U.S. support lagged, as leaders in Saigon preferred political survival instead of creating regime legitimacy. Following 9/11, American security aid focused on making weak countries develop stronger security forces. Unfortunately, this created Fabergé egg militaries: expensive and easily broken by insurgents. This article suggests long-term strategic commitments need to be made alongside more resources for the American State Department and similar organizations to focus on the politics of state-building. Finally, this article suggests strategies, such as “whole-of-government” approaches, to improve long-term security and political institution building.     

The Central Asian Militants: Cannon Fodder of Global Jihadism or Revolutionary Vanguard?

Central Asians have long been present within the ranks of organisations linked to the global jihad movement, but has there been an acceleration in their recruitment in recent years? There is growing evidence of substantial numbers of Central Asians (mostly Uzbeks and Tajiks) present in Syria in the ranks of the Islamic State and of a number of organisations linked to Al-Qaida. There is also growing evidence of recruitment inside Kyrgizstan and Tajikistan at least (as opposed as among Central Asian emigrants). The authors argue that distrust towards information provided by the Central Asian regimes should not blind analysts towards an emerging trend, which has substantial destabilising potential. The factors driving this recruitment also seem to be much more complex than a rejection of the authoritarianism of the ruling elites.     

李雅普诺夫判据在锁相环设计中的应用

本文介绍一种严格判定非线性模型锁相环电路的稳定性方法──李雅普诺夫判据,给出了二阶、三阶非线性环的详细判定过程及设计原则,并对一些实际电路进行了讨论。     

Intelligence reform and the transformation of the state: the end of a French exception

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the intelligence sector is a privileged vantage point to observe and analyse a transformation of the State in France, as this transformation deeply affects the heart of the executive power and the French intelligence and security apparatus. Traditionally, intelligence was not conceived in France as a functional tool in the hands of the decision-maker but was rather defined as a ‘regalian power’. Intelligence activities were derived from a very specific conception of the State, and especially the particular notion of ‘reason of State’ (raison d’État). The current intelligence reform prompts speculation as to whether it represents more than a ‘simple’ functional reorganisation or in fact could signify that intelligence is now recognised as a tool in the hands of a ‘État de droit’ (‘liberal state’). The idea of a French ‘exceptionalism’ is addressed through a theoretical approach of the way France redefines intelligence and surveillance in relation with a major evolution of the notion of ‘reason of State’ itself. Then the article illustrates the assumption of a ‘lost tradition’ of reason of State through an analysis of the current reform of the intelligence sector in France. This reform is based on processes of rationalisation, centralization, modernisation and normalisation of both intelligence activities and intelligence services in France. As a conclusion, the article addresses the reactions to the January and November 2015 terrorist attacks in Paris, and asks whether resilience towards terrorism requires to accelerate the pace of the transformation of the French intelligence sector.