搜索路径给定时的搜索对策问题及其应用

搜索路径给定时的最优搜索方案问题,也可以理解为是关于搜索者和目标的二人对策问题,主要讨论了当搜索路径给定时的单个搜索者和单个目标的搜索对策问题。首先根据问题的特点,利用动态规划和迭代的方法,确定关于目标逃逸路径混合策略的最优分区,证明该分区是多面体凸集;针对目标不同逃逸路径的分区,求出搜索者的最大期望收益,再将问题转化为二人有限零和对策,计算出搜索者的支付矩阵,确定最优搜索策略。最后结合海军护航行动,对我舰载直升机搜索小型海盗船进行分析和计算,说明搜索路径给定时的最优搜索对策对于双方的资源分配和提高搜索效率具有一定的应用价值。     

COSMIC 掩星反演的水汽廓线质量分析

利用2006—2012年北半球冬季低纬度地区(30°S~30°N)无线电探空站数据及全球大气成分和气候监测再分析数据对1000 h Pa~200 h Pa高度层的气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统全球定位系统掩星反演的比湿廓线进行了精度和可靠性验证。结果表明,水汽对气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统掩星反演影响较大,尤其在中、低对流层及热带地区等水汽含量比较大的地区,且气象、电离层与气候星座观测系统掩星数据在850 hpa以下可能并不太适用于评估其他数据。     

Single‐commodity stochastic network design under demand and topological uncertainties with insufficient data

Stochastic network design is fundamental to transportation and logistic problems in practice, yet faces new modeling and computational challenges resulted from heterogeneous sources of uncertainties and their unknown distributions given limited data. In this article, we design arcs in a network to optimize the cost of single‐commodity flows under random demand and arc disruptions. We minimize the network design cost plus cost associated with network performance under uncertainty evaluated by two schemes. The first scheme restricts demand and arc capacities in budgeted uncertainty sets and minimizes the worst‐case cost of supply generation and network flows for any possible realizations. The second scheme generates a finite set of samples from statistical information (e.g., moments) of data and minimizes the expected cost of supplies and flows, for which we bound the worst‐case cost using budgeted uncertainty sets. We develop cutting‐plane algorithms for solving the mixed‐integer nonlinear programming reformulations of the problem under the two schemes. We compare the computational efficacy of different approaches and analyze the results by testing diverse instances of random and real‐world networks. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 154–173, 2017     

From Nationalism to Factionalism: Faultlines in the Naga Insurgency

Do ceasefires or peace talks create fragmentation in the insurgent groups? Rather than proposing claims that can offer predictions about armed groups behaviour under ceasefires or peace processes, the analysts tend to focus largely on the dynamics between state and non-state actor. The experts pay little attention to overtime changes in social and local political context which might contribute to propelling a rebel group towards fragmentation and factionalism. The present study intends to fill this gap by exploring the shifting role of public opinion and ethnic support for the peace talks to ascertain whether it can increase the likelihood of factionalism in rebel groups or not. This article applies this approach to the case of Naga National Movement (1947–2015) in India, and finds that the proposed variable appears to have increased the frequency of factionalism in the movement.     

科学管理、精益管理与精确作战工程保障研究

设计是作战行动筹划的重要步骤,精确工程保障需要对工程保障行动进行精密的设计和精确管理与控制。科学管理采用科学实验的方法,通过劳动方法标准化和差别计件工资制度,有效提高了工作效率,其基本原理经过百余年的实际检验,被证明是一个成熟有效的管理方法。借鉴科学管理理论,需要对工程保障行动进行动作研究,进而研究工程保障行动的作业标准,以期提高其保障效率。精益管理是在科学管理在新的历史时期的发展与改进,它使用了准时制、零库存、均衡生产、持续改进等先进的管理理念和六西格玛管理、成组技术等先进技术,为基于信息系统体系作战的工程保障能力生成提供了有益的借鉴,可加深我们对精确工程保障的理解,促进精确工程保障研究的可操作性。     

基于粒子群优化的观测站部署算法

针对红外观测站部署问题,在研究观测站位置对定位精度影响的基础上,提出了基于粒子群优化的观测站部署算法。首先对ECEF坐标系下的CRLB矩阵进行推导;然后将观测站优化部署问题抽象为非线性规划模型,并将红外传感器联合定位的CRLB作为目标函数;最后采用粒子群优化算法求解该模型,避免了传统的非线性规划算法需要求解目标函数梯度的难题。结果表明,本文的部署算法具有一定的理论依据和工程意义;可以为实际红外观测站的静态部署和动态部署提供参考。     

Initiating insurgencies abroad: French plans to ‘chouannise’ Britain and Ireland, 1793–1798

Secret French plans to launch guerrilla-style raids on the British Isles devised in the spring of 1796 were referred to as ‘chouanneries’. The name and concept behind these small-war operations were modelled on the irregular tactics used by the Chouan rebels in the Vendée, which the French state army had brutally quashed, but some wished to transfer into their institutional practice. Part of France's ongoing military strategy in the war against Britain, which included fomenting insurrection in Ireland, these irregular operations were to be manned partially by pardoned deserters and released convicts and prisoners of war. Of these, only Tate's brief invasion of Wales in 1797 was realised, but the surviving plans provide insightful historical lessons into an Anglophobic mindset shared by a small network of practitioners and policy deciders on the effectiveness of such shock and awe tactics. Largely motivated by the desire to take revenge for Britain's support of counter-revolutionaries in the Vendée, these plans could more aptly be referred to as counter-‘chouanneries’.     

The burglar problem with multiple options

We consider the burglar problem in which a burglar can either retire or choose among different types of burglaries, with each type having its own success probability and reward distribution. Some general structural results are established and, in the case of exponentially distributed reward distributions, a solution technique is presented. The burglar problem's relationship to a stochastic knapsack problem with a random exponentially distributed knapsack capacity is shown. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 359–364, 2014     

非相干背景光辐照二波耦合中的最佳匹配随机共振

针对非相干背景光辐照二波耦合中参数的最佳匹配设计问题,提出了一种基于随机共振理论的研究方法。首先,文章通过二波耦合过程进行物理机理分析和数值实验分析,证明了该问题在本质上可归结为一种随机共振现象。其次,从随机共振的角度,研究其中的最佳参数设计问题,给出了一种分布处理的最优参数设计流程。按照该方法,在给定增益要求的情况下,先根据信号光饱和与否来确定晶体长度,最后根据非相干光的比例对增益的影响来确定非相干光的比例。仿真实验表明,经过最佳参数设计后,信号的增益和输出信噪比上均有显著提高。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014