石化企业火灾事故原因调查方法和技术研究

根据石油化工企业生产特点,阐述了石油化工企业火灾现场特点、火灾事故调查的重点内容、调查采取的方法和技术以及事故调查当中的注意事项,为开展好石油化工企业火灾调查工作提供参考。     

Quantifying the performance effects of idle time utilization in multiserver systems

In many practical multiserver queueing systems, servers not only serve randomly arriving customers but also work on the secondary jobs with infinite backlog during their idle time. In this paper, we propose a c‐server model with a two‐threshold policy, denoted by (e d), to evaluate the performance of this class of systems. With such a policy, when the number of idle servers has reached d (<c), then e (<d) idle agents will process secondary jobs. These e servers keep working on the secondary jobs until they find waiting customers exist in the system at a secondary job completion instant. Using the matrix analytic method, we obtain the stationary performance measures for evaluating different (e, d) policies. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Constrained minimax optimization of continuous search efforts for the detection of a stationary target

Analytical resolution of search theory problems, as formalized by B.O. Koopman, may be applied with some model extension to various resource management issues. However, a fundamental prerequisite is the knowledge of the prior target density. Though this assumption has the definite advantage of simplicity, its drawback is clearly that target reactivity is not taken into account. As a preliminary step towards reactive target study stands the problem of resource planning under a min–max game context. This paper is related to Nakai's work about the game planning of resources for the detection of a stationary target. However, this initial problem is extended by adding new and more general constraints, allowing a more realistic modeling of the target and searcher behaviors. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Probabilistic solution and bounds for serial inventory systems with discounted and average costs

We consider the infinite horizon serial inventory system with both average cost and discounted cost criteria. The optimal echelon base‐stock levels are obtained in terms of only probability distributions of leadtime demands. This analysis yields a novel approach for developing bounds and heuristics for optimal inventory control polices. In addition to deriving the known bounds in literature, we develop several new upper bounds for both average cost and discounted cost models. Numerical studies show that the bounds and heuristic are very close to optimal.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

用毁伤概率指标优化二点源诱饵系统布阵

两点源诱偏系统是应用有源干扰的方式,利用反辐射导弹(ARM)本身的缺陷来对反辐射导弹的导引头进行干扰,从而达到保护主战雷达目的的一种有源干扰系统。主要从反辐射导弹的基本原理和有源诱偏的概念入手,对两点源诱偏系统进行理论推导、数学建模、布站设想,后引入毁伤概率指标对各种布站方式进行分类、仿真,对每一种仿真结果进行分析、评估,再把各种分析结果加以比较,从中找出最佳的布站方式。最后利用以上的分析结果,得出几点有用的结论。     

反导作战信息流时延模型研究

在现代防空反导作战中,战术弹道导弹的威胁,给防空系统带来了预警时间不足等一些新的问题。为了提高防空系统的反导预警能力,在对反导作战过程和反导预警作战过程进行分析的基础之上,对反导预警信息流程进行了研究。提出了一种边处理-边分发的实时模式,通过对比分析,所提模型缩短了预警信息的传输时间,使作战部队提前预警。     

始终处于大气层内飞行的TBM被动段弹道预测

对大气层内飞行的TBM弹道进行预测时,需要根据不同的应用要求,在求解精度允许范围内用近似方法对六自由度运动进行简化,获得简便实用的弹道预测方法。在假设获得TBM被动段弹道初始位置和速度参数的基础上,首先构建简便实用的处于大气层内飞行的TBM被动段抛物线弹道模型;然后将雷达测得的TBM被动段弹道初始位置和速度参数作为初始条件,对弹道方程采用精度较高的龙格-库塔法进行求解,相应得出被动段弹道上各点及落点的位置和速度参数,进一步确定出落点位置的地理位置经纬度。在某地空攻防对抗仿真项目中应用表明,弹道模型及其求解方法可应用于实战或较为逼真的仿真系统中。     

反舰导弹机动与导引配合的弹道设计研究

传统反舰导弹的末端机动与导引是分别进行的,这使得突防效果的提升受限。为了达到提高突防概率和实现高精度导引的双重目的,需要在导弹的末段实现机动与导引协同配合的设计。利用弹目之间的几何关系,规划设计了根据弹目实时连线进行自适应蛇行机动的程序参考信号。整个设计可以看作比例导引法与蛇行机动的复合,利用的信号包括实测的雷达方位角信号、弹目距离与预先设计好的时间指令。     

舰艇对反舰导弹质心干扰效果模型研究

末制导雷达搜索区域的扩大和各种抗无源干扰措施的实施,使舰艇利用箔条云干扰来袭反舰导弹变得更为困难。在末制导雷达捕捉跟踪原理的基础上,建立了舰艇对反舰导弹质心干扰的效果模型,该模型能较精确地反映导弹、反射中心和舰艇位置的动态关系,能根据导弹的距离、导弹来袭方向、风速、风向、干扰弹投放距离、方位判断干扰的效果。仿真显示该模型能较真实地反映各因素对干扰结果的影响。     

防空武器系统总体效能的灰色层次评价模型

以某型防空导弹为例,首先建立防空武器系统总体效能评价指标,并采用效用函数法进行指标量化。在此基础上,采用AHP法和Dephi法确定权重系数,采用灰色方法计算综合评估值,从而建立一种综合灰色系统理论、AHP法和ADC法三者优点的灰色层次评价模型。最后对该型防空导弹进行仿真分析。结果证明,灰色层次评价法较AHP法和ADC法具有更大的合理性。