应用遗传优化算法枚举结构系统的主要破坏模式

根据基因遗传算法的基本原理,提出了一种适用于枚举结构系统主要破坏模式的遗传优化算法,讨论并解决了该法实施过程中的编码技术、适合度函数定义、遗传操作方式等具体技术问题。算例表明：提出的遗传优化算法能够稳定有效地搜索出结构系统的主要破坏模式,从而为进行结构系统的可靠性分析提供了一种崭新的智能方法。     

An intervention analysis of terrorism: The spanish eta case

In this paper we evaluate what terrorism policies have worked best in handling the Spanish ETA terrorism using time series data from 1968 to 2000. We consider the political, deterrence and economic effects, and conclude that their influence on terrorism incidents is mixed. A parsimonious model shows that the behaviour of different terrorism incidents is distinct and the lagged effect is a primary concern. A policy to manage this case is devised.     

DOES DEFENCE SPENDING STIMULATE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDIA? A REVISIT

This study reinvestigates the effect of defence spending on economic growth using Zivot and Andrews and Lee and Strazicich, structural unit root tests and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration in augmented version of Keynesian model for India. Study confirmed long run relationship among variables studied show that economic growth is positively affected by defence spending (also negative impact after a threshold point), investment and trade openness while negatively by interest rate. Granger causality analysis revealed bidirectional causal relationship between defence spending and economic growth as probed by variance decomposition approach.     

基于SEM的装甲车辆驾驶作业疲劳主要影响因素识别研究

在对装甲车辆驾驶作业疲劳影响因素调查研究的基础上,利用AMOS5.0建立了装甲车辆驾驶作业疲劳影响因素结构方程模型,并检验了其合理性,对作业疲劳主要影响因素进行了识别和分析,分析结果可为改善装甲车辆驾驶作业环境、科学训练、驾驶员选拔以及降低作业疲劳程度的研究提供借鉴和参考。     

Improving the damage potential of W-Zr reactive structure material under extreme loading condition

Projectiles made of reactive structure materials(RSM)can damage the target with not only kinetic but also chemical energy,but the enhanced damage potential of RSM may become compromised if extreme loading condition disintegrates the projectile before the target is reached.In this work,a ductile coating of Ni was introduced to a tungsten-zirconium(W-Zr)alloy,a typical brittle RSM,to preserve the damage potential of the projectile.Detonation driving tests were carried out with X-ray photography and gun-powder deflagration driving tests were carried out with high-speed photography for the coated and uncoated RSM samples,respectively.The craters on the witness target were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction.The Ni coating was found to effectively preserve the damage potential of the W-Zr alloy under extreme loading conditions,whereas the uncoated sample fractured and ignited before impacting the target in both detonation and deflagration driving.The crack propa-gation between the reactively brittle core and the ductile coating was analyzed based on the crack arrest theory to mechanistically demonstrate how the coating improves the structural integrity and preserves the damage potential of the projectile.Specifically,the Ni coating envelops the W-Zr core until the coated sphere penetrates the target,and the coating is then eroded and worn to release the reactive core for the projectile to damage the target more intensively.     

防空导弹发动机的模态分析

对某型号防空导弹发动机结构的固有特性进行了较为系统的研究,分别从理论计算和试验测试２ 个方面进行了分析,并在这２ 种分析的基础上对它们进行了比较。初步确定了发动机的固有模态,为今后防空导弹发动机乃至导弹结构动力响应分析提供参考依据,为今后开展进一步的结构动力学研究提供模型基础。     

9/11: WHAT DID WE KNOW AND WHEN DID WE KNOW IT?

In February 1998, Osama Bin Laden published a signed statement calling for a fatwa against the United States for its having ‘declared war against God’. As we now know, the fatwa resulted in the unprecedented attack of 9/11. The issue of whether or not 9/11 was in any way predictable culminated in the public debate between Richard Clarke, former CIA Director George Tenet and the White House. This paper examines whether there was any evidence of a structural change in the terrorism data at or after February 1998 but prior to June 2001, controlling for the possibility of other breaks in earlier periods. In doing so, we use the standard Bai–Perron procedure and our sequential importance sampling (SIS) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for identifying an unknown number of breaks at unknown dates. We conclude that sophisticated statistical time‐series analysis would not have predicted 9/11.     

A LONG‐RUN ANALYSIS OF DEFENCE SPENDING IN THE NATO COUNTRIES (1960–99)

This paper analyses the long‐run demand for defence output through a homogeneous treatment of 15 NATO member countries between 1960 and 1999. We carry out a progressive study of the interactions between either defence spending or defence burden and their main determinants: income, external threat and allied military spending. To that end, we use time‐series analysis with endogenously determined structural breaks. We further consider individual country functions related to one another through a common correlated effects method, in order to take into account explicitly the connections between members of an alliance.     

A note on the causal relationship between defence spending and growth in Greece: 1955–93

The causal relationship between economic growth and defence spending has attracted considerable attention and has been the subject of many empirical studies. This paper investigates the existence of a causal link between military expenditure and economic growth in the case of Greece for the period 1955–93. By European Union standards, Greece allocates substantial human and material resources to defence. At the same time, Greece is the poorest European Union member facing chronic economic problems. Using the concept of Granger‐causality, the findings reported herein suggest that neither variable Granger‐causes the other disclosing thereof the absence of any causal ordering between them.