Tilting at windmills: The flawed U.S. policy toward the 1971 Indo-Pakistani war

ABSTRACT

This article examines decision-making mistakes made by U.S. President Nixon and national security advisor Kissinger during the 1971 India-Pakistan crisis and war. It shows that Nixon and Kissinger routinely demonstrated psychological biases that led them to overestimate the likelihood of West Pakistani victory against Bengali rebels as well as the importance of the crisis to broader U.S. policy. The evidence fails to support Nixon and Kissinger’s own framing of the 1971 crisis as a contest between cool-headed realpolitik and idealistic humanitarianism, and instead shows that Kissinger and Nixon’s policy decisions harmed their stated goals because of repeated decision-making errors.     

Youth Between State and Rebel (Dis)Orders: Contesting Legitimacy from Below in Sub-Sahara Africa

Abstract

The Sahel has gained attention in international politics as one of the central theatres in the war on terrorism. International actors in this war seek alliances with states in the region, reinforcing the latter’s military strength and their legitimacy from outside. At the same time, increasingly-connected young populations question the legitimacy of their states, and contest that legitimacy from within and below. In the absence of states delivering any reasonable form of social contract, young people become torn between different governing orders and find themselves in a liminal space. In this article we present the cases of youth in Mali and Chad, who find themselves in a period of re-definition of their position in society and hence search for legitimate structures representation. In this search they may frame their belonging in terms of ethnicity, religion or political opposition – and increasingly also in adherence to global citizenship. New information flows and connectivity among young people in these regions, and between them and the diaspora, has given a new turn to their search for citizenship/belonging and rightful representation. However, whether their search will be successful in this geopolitical context is questionable.     

时间跨度对GPS坐标序列噪声模型及速度估计影响分析

选取全球范围内72个基准站的坐标序列,采用改进的赤池信息量准则、贝叶斯信息量准则对不同噪声模型组合进行噪声分析,得到基准站坐标序列的最优噪声模型及速度参数,探讨时间序列跨度对噪声模型及速度估计的影响。结果表明,基准站坐标序列噪声模型不能由单一的噪声模型表述,其呈现出多样性特征,主要表现为幂律噪声、高斯马尔科夫噪声、闪烁噪声+白噪声特征,且三坐标分量表现出不同的噪声特性;随着时间跨度的增加,坐标时间序列的最优噪声模型、GPS站速度及其不确定度逐渐由发散趋于收敛,随机游走噪声模型的比重有所增加。结果表明10 a以上的时间跨度是较为理想的噪声模型估计尺度。     

TA2-B10管不同电偶腐蚀防护方式对B10管腐蚀特性的影响

为研究TA2-B10合金管在不同电偶腐蚀防护方式下对B10管腐蚀特性的影响,在青岛小麦岛海水试验场设置TA2-B10管直接连接、电绝缘连接、电绝缘＋涂层连接三组不同电偶腐蚀防护方式对照管道,依次进行1m/s、3m/s、4m/s流动海水与浸泡交替腐蚀试验。对试验后的三组B10管道线切割,通过管道内表面电位分布试验分析不同电偶腐蚀防护方式下B10管道的腐蚀类型;采用动电位极化曲线、电化学阻抗谱和微观表征,分析不同电偶腐蚀防护方式下距离法兰接头250mm处B10管试样的腐蚀特性。结果表明,直接连接TA2-B10管处于电偶腐蚀状态,B10端内电位正移腐蚀加速,电绝缘连接和绝缘＋涂层连接TA2-B10管均处于自腐蚀状态,但电绝缘＋涂层连接具有更好的绝缘效果;电绝缘＋涂层连接防护下的B10试样,腐蚀电流密度最小,自腐蚀电位最负;三组B10试样阻抗谱均呈现单容抗弧特征,电绝缘＋涂层连接防护下的B10试样具有更大的传递电阻和膜层电阻;电绝缘＋涂层连接能有效减缓点蚀、坑蚀和晶间腐蚀三种腐蚀倾向。以上结果综合说明,绝缘＋涂层防护方式具有更好的电偶腐蚀防护效果。     

一种高效的支持原位计算的三角矩阵乘法向量化方法

向量处理器的向量化算法映射是难点问题。提出一种高效的支持原位计算的三角矩阵乘法向量化方法,采用将L1D配置为SRAM模式,用双缓冲的乒乓方式平滑多级存储结构的数据传输,使得内核的计算与DMA数据搬移完全重迭,让内核始终以峰值速度运行,从而取得最佳的计算效率;将不规则的三角矩阵乘法计算均衡分布到各个向量处理单元,充分开发向量处理器的多级并行性;将结果矩阵保存在乘数矩阵中,实现原位计算,节省了存储空间。在Matrix上的实验结果表明,提出的向量化方法使三角矩阵乘法性能达到1053.7GFLOPS,效率为91.47%。     

Dundee-made harpoon gun associated with H. M. S. Challenger

Attention is drawn to the existence of a harpoon-gun putatively from H. M. S. Challenger, a ship whose three-and-a-half-year circumnavigation of the globe (1872–1876), marked the beginning of the science of oceanography. The harpoon gun in question was made by Dundee shipsmith and harpoon-gun maker, David Neave. Only a few other examples of his work are known to exist and this example with a Remington rolling-block action is unusual for a British harpoon gun. It is proposed that it came to Millport's Marine Station via links Sir John Murray (1841–1914) had with the Marine Biological Association of the West of Scotland.     

New Light on the Swordmakers,Goldsmiths and Jewellers,John Ray and James Montague,Active in Partnership in London 1800–1821, With a New and Extended List of Their Known Work

Abstract

Some new information is presented on the prominent London goldsmiths and jewellers, John Ray and James Montague, of 22 Denmark Street, Soho, active in partnership from 1800 to 1821. A revised and extended list has been compiled of recorded works, including presentation swords, freedom boxes, ‘Toys’, tokens and other items, made by this highly reputable Soho workshop, during a decisive period of British history.     

Country Survey XIII: Japan's security posture and defense industry prospects

Defense budgets in Japan have been complicated compromises from numerous inputs ‐ including threat perceptions, domestic industrial/technological base development, support for the bilateral security treaty with the United States and internal bureaucratic politics ‐ but with the fall of the former Soviet Union, the clearest justification for higher spending disappeared. Double‐digit defense spending increases that were common in the 1980s have been replaced by annual increases lower than present inflation rates, resulting in negative real growth in the country's defense budget. Domestic economic problems and consistent government pressures for smaller budgets have further slowed annual growth in total spending and have contributed to lower procurement budgets. As a result, the domestic Japanese defense industry is facing far more constrained conditions from the growth years of a decade before.

Government policymakers are examining Japan's regional security environment as well as its alliance with the United States to determine the appropriate course for the country to take in the coming years. The formal security treaty with the United States is likely to remain a major element of government positions, but other aspects of the country's overall security posture are open to debate. Perceptions of a reduced threat environment are fueling additional pressures for defense budget cuts.

The domestic defense industry seeks means to assure its survival in domestic defense markets in this constrained environment. Expansion into overseas markets to offset declining domestic markets is an option that currently is constrained by policy restrictions on arms exports. Industry is advocating re‐examination of those policies and unlike earlier years, government appears willing to respond positively but cautiously to this lobbying.     

THE GEOGRAPHY OF NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION NETWORKS

This article uses a geographic approach to examine one aspect of the nuclear black market: the coordinators who bring buyers and sellers together, and transport goods between them. The most important factor in determining the geographical structure of a proliferation network is the network coordinator's access (or lack thereof) to unique state resources. Coordinators with access to state resources and prerogatives can avoid embedding themselves in hostile countries or relying on commercial infrastructure, often leading to territorially diffuse logistical networks. Coordinators without such access are forced to rely on commercial infrastructure and favorable local political, economic, and social conditions, often resulting in territorially centralized logistical networks. This is illustrated through case studies of Abdul Qadeer Khan's supply networks to Pakistan, Libya, and Iran. The article concludes with some observations about the implications of a geographical approach for understanding nuclear proliferation networks.     

The Dilemmas of US Maritime Supremacy in the Early Cold War

After World War II, the US Navy confronted the challenge of adapting to dramatically altered geopolitical circumstances. Moscow did not have an ocean-going fleet, and early Cold War strategy was dominated by the salient position of nuclear strategic bombing – a mission thought to be outside the purview of the navy. Traditional roles, such as protecting sea lines of communication and supporting ground forces ashore, quickly proved indispensable. However, the navy eventually also succeeded in fielding dramatic technological and institutional innovations, for example, the strategic missile submarine, which enabled the US to successfully leverage maritime power against the continental power of the USSR.