论《西方音乐史》两种教学方式的利弊

《西方音乐史》是高校音乐专业必修的一门基础理论课程。在该课多年的教学中,普遍使用的教学方式有多种,本文仅就两种较为典型的教学方式——以章节为主的“块状”教学和以历史脉络知识点为主的“线型”教学,分析研究两者的利弊,并通过对比,从中得出更有利的教学方式。     

多阶段含延缓纠正的可靠性增长序化建模分析

多阶段含延缓纠正的可靠性增长试验,其各个阶段内的试验数据分别服从参数不同的Weibull过程.针对现场样本少、传统的可靠性评估方法实施困难的问题,首先在获得各阶段形状参数的基础上,对各个阶段截尾时刻的失效强度建立顺序约束关系.然后,运用Bayes方法融合先验信息,获得最末阶段截尾时刻的失效强度的期望与置信上限.该结果融合了历史阶段的样本信息,优于仅利用单个阶段样本的分析结果,适用于多阶段可靠性增长试验的综合评估.     

空投产品入水可靠性的评估方法

针对空投某产品时试验多状态、小样本的特点,提出了基于回归折算的性能可靠性评估方法.通过分析投放过程的数学模型,给出入水参数关于投放条件的回归模型,并根据试验数据估计出回归系数.利用回归折算将分散在不同空投条件下的试验数据折算到某一条件下,基于折算后的试验数据得到了较客观的产品入水可靠性评估结果.     

新型BFRP筋增强混凝土受弯构件挠度控制

玄武岩纤维塑料增强筋（BFRP筋）的特性导致以其为增强筋的受弯构件出现裂缝后刚度降低非常明显,变形发展过快。因此,对BFRP筋混凝土梁的设计主要应根据其变形性能标准的要求来进行。为方便设计人员进行BFRP筋受弯构件设计,结合试验研究,通过对比国内外有关FRP筋混凝土梁开裂截面有限惯性矩计算模型的研究,探索出适合BFRP筋混凝土梁开裂截面有效惯性矩计算模型;通过建模分析,表明有限元计算模型和其他几种计算模型一起可以应用于BFRP筋混凝土梁直接挠度控制。推导出FRP筋受弯构件配筋率计算公式,结合直接挠度控制研究,提出通过控制跨高比限值来进行梁尺寸初选的间接挠度控制计算公式。     

型钢混凝土桁架节点有限元分析

由于普通结构设计软件无法实现型钢混凝土空间桁架节点内部细化计算分析,为解决这一问题,通过采用ANSYS软件对整体结构进行静力分析,并提取桁架节点处各构件的内力,将其施加于桁架节点的实体模型,进行精细的有限元计算分析;检验桁架节点实体模型内部应力是否满足强度要求,验证结构设计时节点区域的型钢选取和配筋的合理性;同时将分析结果与在该结构施工现场实际检测结果进行对比。结果表明,AN—SYS软件能够准确地完成普通结构设计软件无法完成的复杂结构模型的细化有限元分析。     

基于Petri网的指挥流程建模与优化

鉴于Petri网在企业业务流程优化与重组方面的成功运用,遂将Petri网原理应用于作战指挥流程的建模与优化,以期获得最优作战指挥流程.文中首先阐述Petri网基本原理,然后介绍指挥流程建模的Petri网模型,最后给出指挥流程优化的原则及基本模型,并利用Petri网对指挥流程进行建模和优化,结果表明Petri网理论能够明显优化作战指挥流程.提高作战指挥效率.     

基于ISM的油库安全事故成因分析

分析油库安全事故成因,划分事故成因类型,对于有效控制事故发生、保障油库运行安全是极其重要的。运用系统工程思想,对油库安全事故成因要素的相互关系进行分析,建立了油库安全事故成因多层递阶解释结构模型（ISM）。分析和计算结果表明：油库安全事故成因大致可分为根本原因、直接原因和间接原因三个类型（层次）。针对不同层次结构的事故成因,可以制定相应的预防和控制措施,为军用油库抓住安全管理重点、有效防止事故发生提供理论依据。     

Quality risk in outsourcing: Noncontractible product quality and private quality cost information

This article addresses the concept of quality risk in outsourcing. Recent trends in outsourcing extend a contract manufacturer's (CM's) responsibility to several functional areas, such as research and development and design in addition to manufacturing. This trend enables an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to focus on sales and pricing of its product. However, increasing CM responsibilities also suggest that the OEM's product quality is mainly determined by its CM. We identify two factors that cause quality risk in this outsourcing relationship. First, the CM and the OEM may not be able to contract on quality; second, the OEM may not know the cost of quality to the CM. We characterize the effects of these two quality risk factors on the firms' profits and on the resulting product quality. We determine how the OEM's pricing strategy affects quality risk. We show, for example, that the effect of noncontractible quality is higher than the effect of private quality cost information when the OEM sets the sales price after observing the product's quality. We also show that committing to a sales price mitigates the adverse effect of quality risk. To obtain these results, we develop and analyze a three‐stage decision model. This model is also used to understand the impact of recent information technologies on profits and product quality. For example, we provide a decision tree that an OEM can use in deciding whether to invest in an enterprise‐wide quality management system that enables accounting of quality‐related activities across the supply chain. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

A two‐echelon inventory‐location problem with service considerations

We study the problem of designing a two‐echelon spare parts inventory system consisting of a central plant and a number of service centers each serving a set of customers with stochastic demand. Processing and storage capacities at both levels of facilities are limited. The manufacturing process is modeled as a queuing system at the plant. The goal is to optimize the base‐stock levels at both echelons, the location of service centers, and the allocation of customers to centers simultaneously, subject to service constraints. A mixed integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) is formulated to minimize the total expected cost of the system. The problem is NP‐hard and a Lagrangian heuristic is proposed. We present computational results and discuss the trade‐off between cost and service. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

To wait or not to wait: Optimal ordering under lead time uncertainty and forecast updating

There has been a dramatic increase over the past decade in the number of firms that source finished product from overseas. Although this has reduced procurement costs, it has increased supply risk; procurement lead times are longer and are often unreliable. In deciding when and how much to order, firms must consider the lead time risk and the demand risk, i.e., the accuracy of their demand forecast. To improve the accuracy of its demand forecast, a firm may update its forecast as the selling season approaches. In this article we consider both forecast updating and lead time uncertainty. We characterize the firm's optimal procurement policy, and we prove that, with multiplicative forecast revisions, the firm's optimal procurement time is independent of the demand forecast evolution but that the optimal procurement quantity is not. This leads to a number of important managerial insights into the firm's planning process. We show that the firm becomes less sensitive to lead time variability as the forecast updating process becomes more efficient. Interestingly, a forecast‐updating firm might procure earlier than a firm with no forecast updating. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009