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排序方式: 共有874条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
561.
金属化膜电容器是惯性约束聚变激光装置能源系统最重要的元器件,对个体电容器的剩余寿命进行有效的预测对整个装置的可靠性水平有着重要的影响.为有效地预测个体电容器的剩余寿命,提出了融合单个电容器性能退化数据与先验性能退化数据信息的预测方法.采用Wiener过程对其性能退化过程进行建模,并根据先验退化数据信息构造参数的先验分布... 相似文献
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This article considers the problem of monitoring Poisson count data when sample sizes are time varying without assuming a priori knowledge of sample sizes. Traditional control charts, whose control limits are often determined before the control charts are activated, are constructed based on perfect knowledge of sample sizes. In practice, however, future sample sizes are often unknown. Making an inappropriate assumption of the distribution function could lead to unexpected performance of the control charts, for example, excessive false alarms in the early runs of the control charts, which would in turn hurt an operator's confidence in valid alarms. To overcome this problem, we propose the use of probability control limits, which are determined based on the realization of sample sizes online. The conditional probability that the charting statistic exceeds the control limit at present given that there has not been a single alarm before can be guaranteed to meet a specified false alarm rate. Simulation studies show that our proposed control chart is able to deliver satisfactory run length performance for any time‐varying sample sizes. The idea presented in this article can be applied to any effective control charts such as the exponentially weighted moving average or cumulative sum chart. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 625–636, 2013 相似文献
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王涛 《武警工程学院学报》2013,(6):36-38
为了有效解决基于内容图像检索中“语义鸿沟”问题,利用贝叶斯决策理论估计图像检索中相关图像集与不相关图像集合的分类面,通过移动查询点的策略,指导新一轮的查询,将查询点移向好的范例点而远离坏的范例点。试验证明该方法是一种有效的基于统计分析的反馈方法。 相似文献
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In February 1998, Osama Bin Laden published a signed statement calling for a fatwa against the United States for its having ‘declared war against God’. As we now know, the fatwa resulted in the unprecedented attack of 9/11. The issue of whether or not 9/11 was in any way predictable culminated in the public debate between Richard Clarke, former CIA Director George Tenet and the White House. This paper examines whether there was any evidence of a structural change in the terrorism data at or after February 1998 but prior to June 2001, controlling for the possibility of other breaks in earlier periods. In doing so, we use the standard Bai–Perron procedure and our sequential importance sampling (SIS) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for identifying an unknown number of breaks at unknown dates. We conclude that sophisticated statistical time‐series analysis would not have predicted 9/11. 相似文献
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The 2005 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) failed to produce any agreed action plan for addressing nuclear disarmament or proliferation. Detailed discussions and negotiations on such a plan were much curtailed because of procedural wrangles. This article describes the evolution of the conference and argues that changes in the international political environment and problems inherent in the revised NPT review process agreed at its 1995 Extension Conference contributed to the meager outcome. The main issues raised by delegations in their plenary statements, working papers, and the limited time available for interactive discussion are summarized, and three perspectives are offered on the reasons for the lack of any substantive product. Finally, the implications of that failure for the NPT, its review process, the wider regime for international nuclear governance, and nuclear disarmament, nuclear nonproliferation, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy are examined. 相似文献
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传统的面向事务的数据处理方法已经无法适应处理大量数据的要求,为解决这一问题,将面向主题的数据仓库技术用于军械维修器材保障决策支持系统的设计,阐述了基于数据仓库的军械维修器材保障决策支持系统需求分析、系统设计和系统实现,讨论了系统设计原则、设计方法、逻辑结构设计、多维数据仓库设计、底层数据库设计、前端用户视图设计等内容,对军械维修器材保障决策支持系统的开发提供了基本思路. 相似文献
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军事物流是影响军事行动成败的重要因素,军事物流的效益与部队战斗力的形成与再生密切相关.为了更好的对军事物流效益进行评估,对于评估指标属性值,利用三角模糊数进行定量表示,结合离差最大化原理对三角模糊属性值的主客观权重进行修正.接着,利用多属性决策中的TOPSIS方法对军事物流效益进行评估.最后,结合实例说明该方法综合考虑主客观因素,有助于进行军事物流方案的选择,有效降低指挥员决策的主观随意性. 相似文献