社会计算实验动态仿真引擎的研究与实现

应对新形势下非常规突发事件的严峻挑战是各国政府亟待解决的问题,综合人工社会-计算实验-平行执行的ACP方法,是解决非常规突发事件应急管理问题的有效方法.本文引入ACP方法,阐述构建高性能社会计算实验动态仿真引擎的作用;按照层次化模块化思想设计动态仿真引擎D-PARSE的体系结构,详细描述各组成部分的具体功能,并基于并行...     

Performance analysis of queue length monitoring of M/G/1 systems

This study investigates the statistical process control application for monitoring queue length data in M/G/1 systems. Specifically, we studied the average run length (ARL) characteristics of two different control charts for detecting changes in system utilization. First, the nL chart monitors the sums of successive queue length samples by subgrouping individual observations with sample size n. Next is the individual chart with a warning zone whose control scheme is specified by two pairs of parameters, (upper control limit, d_u) and (lower control limit, d_l), as proposed by Bhat and Rao (Oper Res 20 (1972) 955–966). We will present approaches to calculate ARL for the two types of control charts using the Markov chain formulation and also investigate the effects of parameters of the control charts to provide useful design guidelines for better performance. Extensive numerical results are included for illustration. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于层次分析法的桂西北古村寨火灾风险评估研究

应用层次分析法,根据桂西北古村寨的实际情况,建立了桂西北古村寨的火灾风险评估体系。采用专家打分法获取数据,并应用统计学中的众值原理,对获得的数据进行了统计,得到了指标的权重,建立了适用于实际情况的消防安全检查表。并应用实例证明了这种评估方法行之有效。     

Quantifying the performance effects of idle time utilization in multiserver systems

In many practical multiserver queueing systems, servers not only serve randomly arriving customers but also work on the secondary jobs with infinite backlog during their idle time. In this paper, we propose a c‐server model with a two‐threshold policy, denoted by (e d), to evaluate the performance of this class of systems. With such a policy, when the number of idle servers has reached d (<c), then e (<d) idle agents will process secondary jobs. These e servers keep working on the secondary jobs until they find waiting customers exist in the system at a secondary job completion instant. Using the matrix analytic method, we obtain the stationary performance measures for evaluating different (e, d) policies. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

基于扩展Petri网的动态服务聚合流程描述模型及其BPEL4WS表示方法

针对现有服务聚合流程建模方法的不足,基于扩展Petri网提出了一种新的服务聚合流程/资源描述模型WSCP/R-net,有效解决了动态服务聚合流程模型中不确定路径选择和服务的动态变化性问题。给出了WSCP/R-net模型向BPEL4WS的转换算法,并以城市应急处理为例说明了转换算法的有效性。     

论化学灾害事故处置的指挥决策及其实施

化学灾害事故处置的指挥决策及其实施水平尤为重要,在分析当前指挥决策存在不足的基础上,从完善指挥决策组织、拓展依据、突出决策重点、加强人员装备,以及科学处理一些关系等方面进行了探讨。     

演化硬件中变异概率对进化算法首次命中时间的影响

在(1+1)EAs中,采用马尔可夫链推移时间分析法,推导出了平均首次命中时间的表达式。从理论上分析了变异概率对平均首次命中时间的影响。结果表明适当的变异概率会缩短平均首次命中时间,加快进化算法的寻优时间。     

基于熵理论的战场情报评估方法

熵是度量信息有效性和可靠性的重要理论工具,分析了信息熵和条件熵,并深入研究了熵作为不确定性的度量在战场情报中的评估应用,最后举例说明了既要考虑信息的价值又要考虑其风险程度这一新的情报分析方法,使得决策过程透明化,降低了决策的风险。     

面向EUP的军用软件保障机制研究

软件保障是软件密集型装备和系统持续可靠地发挥作战效能的有力保证。从软件保障原则、保障组织和保障过程等方面,研究了面向EUP过程(Enterprise Unified Process,EUP)的军用软件保障机制,初步探讨了在EUP全生命周期中规划、组织和实施军用软件保障的方法。     

改进的AHP法在目标价值排序中的应用

针对在应用AHP法时,传统的标度法可能导致判断矩阵一致性与思维一致性脱节,进而破坏层次分析法的优选排序功能的问题。首先分析了传统的1～9标度的不足,然后通过引入指数(0,2)标度,建立了满足一致性要求的判断矩阵,改进了层次分析法。最后将改进的AHP法应用于战场炮兵的主要攻击目标价值排序的评估,进一步提高了评估的准确性。