同时射击时反坦克导弹视场交叉数学模型研究

反坦克导弹同时射击时测角视场交叉可能引起导弹失控,针对此问题,利用信息系统的位置地理信息,参照装备的基本性能参数,构建了配置阵地的数学模型,得出了同时射击的可行性判据,为阵地射击指挥提供了决策支持。     

装备综合物流保障网络智能决策支持技术

为了提高军事装备综合物流保障决策的科学性、实时性,摆脱以往单纯依靠经验总结和历史数据积累为主的保障决策方式,利用图论的理论算法和分布式计算机网络技术等,对保障任务自动生成满足各种保障要求的决策方案,不仅更加快速准确,而且为装备综合物流保障工作提供了一个战平结合的决策支持平台。     

Double Mover–Stayer model on customer switching in telecommunications industry

Customer acquisition and customer retention are the most important challenges in the increasingly competitive telecommunications industry. Traditional studies of customer switching always assume that customers are homogeneous, and thus that model customer switching behavior follows a Markov formulation. However, this postulation is obviously inappropriate in most instances. Blumen et al. (Cornell Studies of Industrial and Labor Relations, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 1955) developed the Mover–Stayer (MS) model, a generalization of the Markov chain model, to relax the requirement of homogeneity and allow the presence of heterogeneity with two different types of individuals—“stayers,” who purchase the same kinds of products or services throughout the entire observation period; and “movers,” who look for variety in products or services over time. There are two purpose of this article. First, we extend the MS model to a Double Mover‐Stayer (DMS) model by assuming the existence of three types of individuals in the market: (1) stable and loyal customers, who have stable usage within the same company; (2) instable but loyal customers, whose usage varies within the same company over time; and (3) disloyal customers, who switch from one company to another to seek for new experiences or/and benefits. We also propose an estimation method for the DMS model. Second, we apply the DMS model to telecommunications data and demonstrate how it can be used for pattern identification, hidden knowledge discovery, and decision making. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

军事指挥控制中的贝叶斯决策支持

军事指挥控制是一个复杂的决策过程,该过程中信息是结合定性的专家知识和定量的融合数据而得到的.贝叶斯网为指挥控制系统提供了一个框架来处理这种专家知识和具体数据相结合的问题,并且影响图作为贝叶斯网的延伸可被用于分析指挥控制系统中某个决策的可行性.进一步地,为了减少所需指定的条件概率的数量并引入时变的概念,提出动态影响网作为一种新的决策支持方法.     

基于对抗模拟的箔条质心干扰决策计算方法

通过分析箔条质心干扰的作战过程,综合考虑了反舰导弹的来袭方向、性能参数、舰艇的物理和运动参数、作战海域的天气情况,建立箔条质心干扰反舰导弹的作战模拟模型,在此基础上提出了箔条质心干扰方案的计算方法.应用实例的过程和结果表明,该方法简易可行,通过真实模拟双方的对抗过程,所得决策方案可信度高,对质心干扰决策具有很好的指导价值.     

一种用于战场态势分析的决策支持方法

针对战场态势分析过程中存在的关键情报缺失问题,在离散事件系统的模型基础上,总结已有决策支持方法并加以改进,提出一种步进融合算法,构建出新的决策支持系统。采用数学手段及实例验证对所提出方法与已有方法进行性能比较,证明该方法能够有效保证指挥决策的鲁棒性和敏捷性,适用于战场态势分析。     

网络化多平台协同控制与决策系统总体设计框架

针对单一平台在探测能力和信息获取方面的局限性,提出构建基于空中、地面、水中平台的多平台人机协同控制与决策系统的体系结构,该系统的特点是有人参与决策,可实现有人平台和无人平台的协同。分析了地面指挥控制与决策中心及各平台应具有的功能,并对人机交互软件界面进行了总体设计。给出了一个典型的应用场景,分析了其工作原理及多平台协同跟踪与决策过程,验证了所提系统体系结构的灵活性和合理性。     

指标融合和隐马尔可夫模型的舰船装备技术状态评估

科学合理的技术状态评估技术是保障舰船安全性和任务完好性的有效途径之一,针对目前舰船装备技术状态评估缺乏动态性以及评估指标过多的问题,构建舰船装备技术状态多指标融合模型,结合技术状态评估指标融合模型和隐马尔可夫模型所具有双随机性和严谨数学推理能力的特点,建立基于指标融合模型和隐马尔可夫模型的舰船装备技术状态动态评估模型。最后通过案例分析验证了所提出的方法能够有效体现技术状态评估中的动态性,为舰船装备技术状态评估提供新的途径。     

抗击反辐射导弹武器时的指挥决策

随着高新技术不断应用于军事领域,使得战场环境变得越来越复杂,进攻与防御间的对抗越来越激烈。近两场战争表明,现代战争是以信息技术为主的一种全方位、立体化、在多维空间展开的高科技战争,反辐射武器是主要的电子进攻武器。本文结合水面舰艇作战特点,从雷达诱骗和航空导弹硬抗击两个方面入手,对抗击反辐射导弹武器时的编队配置、引诱条件、引诱时机及指挥决策进行分析探讨,提出以积极的防御手段综合抗击来袭的雷达制导反辐射导弹。     

Approximations and empirics for stochastic war equations

The article develops a theorem which shows that the Lanchester linear war equations are not in general equal to the Kolmogorov linear war equations. The latter are time‐consuming to solve, and speed is important when a large number of simulations must be run to examine a large parameter space. Run times are provided, where time is a scarce factor in warfare. Four time efficient approximations are presented in the form of ordinary differential equations for the expected sizes and variances of each group, and the covariance, accounting for reinforcement and withdrawal of forces. The approximations are compared with “exact” Monte Carlo simulations and empirics from the WWII Ardennes campaign. The band spanned out by plus versus minus the incremented standard deviations captures some of the scatter in the empirics, but not all. With stochastically varying combat effectiveness coefficients, a substantial part of the scatter in the empirics is contained. The model is used to forecast possible futures. The implications of increasing the combat effectiveness coefficient governing the size of the Allied force, and injecting reinforcement to the German force during the Campaign, are evaluated, with variance assessments. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.