决策树知识表示的多故障源搜索算法研究

在深入研究产生式规则知识表示的基础上,运用决策树知识表示方法,完成故障诊断专家系统的知识库设计,对传统的单故障源决策树搜索算法进行了改进,解决了相同故障现象的多故障源连续搜索和定位问题,提高了推理机单次故障诊断的定位率和搜索效率,缩短了故障诊断专家系统的诊断时间。     

基于粗糙集理论的加权排序法及其应用

针对粗糙集理论在有限个方案的多目标决策问题应用中存在的缺陷,提出了一种新的加权排序法,该方法既吸取了粗糙集约简属性的优点,又考虑到了各属性间的相对重要性,使得决策过程更符合实际情况.最后给出了该种排序法在武器装备系统论证中的应用,取得了较好的效果.     

基于马尔可夫预测的低消耗弹药库存仿真建模分析

应用马尔可夫方法的无后效性原理,建立了低消耗弹药库存的预测模型,为该类弹药的年度供应提供依据。在模型建立的基础上,对其仿真算法进行了描述,并应用计算机进行了仿真实现。     

基于马尔可夫过程的介电函数理论研究

基于马尔可夫过程,研究电介质分别在阶跃电场、方波电场和交变电场条件下的极化过程,并给出了介电函数的一般表达式．     

Bayesian analysis of queues with impatient customers: Applications to call centers

Queuing models have been extensively used in the literature for obtaining performance measures and developing staffing policies. However, most of this work has been from a pure probabilistic point of view and has not addressed issues of statistical inference. In this article, we consider Bayesian queuing models with impatient customers with particular emphasis on call center operations and discuss further extensions. We develop the details of Bayesian inference for queues with abandonment such as the M/M/s + M model (Erlang‐A). In doing so, we discuss the estimation of operating characteristics and its implications on staffing. We illustrate the implementation of the Bayesian models using actual arrival, service, and abandonment data from call centers. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

A novel gradient approach for optimal design and sensitivity analysis of EWMA control charts

Conventional control charts are often designed to optimize out‐of‐control average run length (ARL), while constraining in‐control ARL to a desired value. The widely employed grid search approach in statistical process control (SPC) is time‐consuming with unsatisfactory accuracy. Although the simulation‐based ARL gradient estimators proposed by Fu and Hu [Manag Sci 45 (1999), 395–413] can alleviate this issue, it still requires a large number of simulation runs to significantly reduce the variance of gradient estimators. This article proposes a novel ARL gradient estimation approach based on integral equation for efficient analysis and design of control charts. Although this article compares with the results of Fu and Hu [Manag Sci 45 (1999), 395–413] based on the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, the proposed approach has wide applicability as it can generally fit into any control chart with Markovian property under any distributions. It is shown that the proposed method is able to provide a fast, accurate, and easy‐to‐implement algorithm for the design and analysis of EWMA charts, as compared to the simulation‐based gradient estimation method. Moreover, the proposed gradient estimation method facilitates the computation of high‐order derivatives that are valuable in sensitivity analysis. The code is written in Matlab, which is available on request. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 223–237, 2014     

Dynamic coordination of production planning and sales admission control in the presence of a spot market

We consider the decision‐making problem of dynamically scheduling the production of a single make‐to stock (MTS) product in connection with the product's concurrent sales in a spot market and a long‐term supply channel. The spot market is run by a business to business (B2B) online exchange, whereas the long‐term channel is established by a structured contract. The product's price in the spot market is exogenous, evolves as a continuous time Markov chain, and affects demand, which arrives sequentially as a Markov‐modulated Poisson process (MMPP). The manufacturer is obliged to fulfill demand in the long‐term channel, but is able to rein in sales in the spot market. This is a significant strategic decision for a manufacturer in entering a favorable contract. The profitability of the contract must be evaluated by optimal performance. The current problem, therefore, arises as a prerequisite to exploring contracting strategies. We reveal that the optimal strategy of coordinating production and sales is structured by the spot price dependent on the base stock and sell‐down thresholds. Moreover, we can exploit the structural properties of the optimal strategy to conceive an efficient algorithm. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Optimal control of a production‐inventory system with both backorders and lost sales

We consider the optimal control of a production inventory‐system with a single product and two customer classes where items are produced one unit at a time. Upon arrival, customer orders can be fulfilled from existing inventory, if there is any, backordered, or rejected. The two classes are differentiated by their backorder and lost sales costs. At each decision epoch, we must determine whether or not to produce an item and if so, whether to use this item to increase inventory or to reduce backlog. At each decision epoch, we must also determine whether or not to satisfy demand from a particular class (should one arise), backorder it, or reject it. In doing so, we must balance inventory holding costs against the costs of backordering and lost sales. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use it to characterize the structure of the optimal policy. We show that the optimal policy can be described by three state‐dependent thresholds: a production base‐stock level and two order‐admission levels, one for each class. The production base‐stock level determines when production takes place and how to allocate items that are produced. This base‐stock level also determines when orders from the class with the lower shortage costs (Class 2) are backordered and not fulfilled from inventory. The order‐admission levels determine when orders should be rejected. We show that the threshold levels are monotonic (either nonincreasing or nondecreasing) in the backorder level of Class 2. We also characterize analytically the sensitivity of these thresholds to the various cost parameters. Using numerical results, we compare the performance of the optimal policy against several heuristics and show that those that do not allow for the possibility of both backordering and rejecting orders can perform poorly.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

模糊多属性群决策与潜艇作战方案优选

分析了潜艇作战方案的优选实质是一个模糊多属性的群决策过程,建立了模糊多属性群决策的一般模型,介绍了一种以模糊理想解与模糊负理想解同时作为参照基准,以海明距离作为测度工具,以相对贴近度作为衡量标准的模糊折衷型多属性群决策方法,应用实例表明此方法可行有效。     

基于弹药安全性的运输装载决策系统研究

对弹药装载决策业务进行了系统分析,研究了各项决策要素,在此基础上研制开发了一种基于弹药安全性的运输装载决策系统,收到了良好的使用效果。