Nonperiodic preventive maintenance for repairable systems

As a complex system with multiple components usually deteriorates with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to keep the system functioning in a good state to prolong its effective age. In this study, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deterioration of a repairable system, and the optimal nonperiodic PM schedule can be determined to minimize the expected total cost per unit time. However, since the determination of such optimal PM policies may involve numerous uncertainties, which typically make the analyses difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data, a Bayesian decision model, which utilizes all available information effectively, is also proposed for determining the optimal PM strategies. A numerical example with a real failure data set is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that the optimal schedules derived by Bayesian approach are relatively more conservative than that for non‐Bayesian approach because of the uncertainty of the intensity function, and if the intensity function are updated using the collected data set, which indicates more severe deterioration than the prior belief, replacing the entire system instead of frequent PM activities before serious deterioration is suggested. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

一步法制备石蜡微胶囊的中试研究及性能表征

采用一步法在100L反应釜内进行石蜡微胶囊制备的中试,表征了石蜡微胶囊的微胶囊化率、粒径和热性能,探讨了中试工艺对产品性能的影响。结果表明中试产品与实验室小试产品的性能基本接近。中试石蜡微胶囊的微胶囊化率为70％,平均粒径为54．0μm,相变范围为40～80℃,相变峰值和热焓分别为65℃,114J／g,分解温度达250℃。     

基于模糊层次分析法的高层建筑火灾风险评估

火灾风险评估是降低火灾损失的有效方法。利用模糊层次分析法,建立了高层建筑火灾风险评估体系,并应用于具体高层建筑的火灾风险评估中。评估结果与实际情况取得了较好的一致性,从而为高层建筑火灾风险评估提供了一种简便可行的方法。     

马克思主义中国化的历史进程及其启示

马克思主义中国化的历史进程波澜壮阔,绚丽多彩。马克思主义的中国化,不仅使中华民族以独立的姿态重新屹立于世界民族之林,使中国人民真正当家做主人,而且引领中华民族走上实现伟大复兴的康庄大道。马克思主义的中国化给我们留下了许多有益的启示。     

大型相控阵雷达系统安全性综合评价

针对大型相控阵雷达系统安全性因素多、评价困难的特点,分析并建立了大型相控阵雷达系统安全评价指标体系。提出了一种基于改进模糊层次分析法、熵权法和拉格朗日算法确定综合权重的方法,并建立了雷达系统安全性模糊综合评价模型。以某型大型相控阵雷达系统的安全性评价为例,运用所提方法确定该雷达系统的安全性指标综合权重,并进行安全性综合评价。将该方法与传统AHP评价法进行对比分析,验证了该方法的科学性和合理性。     

基于层次分析法的军校学员体能训练评估

针对目前军校学员军事体育训练评估难以量化考核的问题,提出了基于层次分析法的军校学员体能训练评估方法。首先,通过建立评估指标体系,构建评估指标判断矩阵;其次,进行归一化并计算指标组合权重,构建评估基本模型;最后,利用评估模型对学员体能训练进行综合评估。结果表明本文提出的方法能够对军校学员体能训练进行有效评估,相比于传统考核评估方法更能反映出学员体能的真实状况,突出学员体能特征,开展针对性训练。      

Dynamic server assignment policies for assembly‐type queues with flexible servers

We seek dynamic server assignment policies in finite‐capacity queueing systems with flexible and collaborative servers, which involve an assembly and/or a disassembly operation. The objective is to maximize the steady‐state throughput. We completely characterize the optimal policy for a Markovian system with two servers, two feeder stations, and instantaneous assembly and disassembly operations. This optimal policy allocates one server per station unless one of the stations is blocked, in which case both servers work at the unblocked station. For Markovian systems with three stations and instantaneous assembly and/or disassembly operations, we consider similar policies that move a server away from his/her “primary” station only when that station is blocked or starving. We determine the optimal assignment of each server whose primary station is blocked or starving in systems with three stations and zero buffers, by formulating the problem as a Markov decision process. Using this optimal assignment, we develop heuristic policies for systems with three or more stations and positive buffers, and show by means of a numerical study that these policies provide near‐optimal throughput. Furthermore, our numerical study shows that these policies developed for assembly‐type systems also work well in tandem systems. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Estimating failure time distribution and its parameters based on intermediate data from a Wiener degradation model

Instead of measuring a Wiener degradation or performance process at predetermined time points to track degradation or performance of a product for estimating its lifetime, we propose to obtain the first‐passage times of the process over certain nonfailure thresholds. Based on only these intermediate data, we obtain the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator and uniformly most accurate confidence interval for the mean lifetime. For estimating the lifetime distribution function, we propose a modified maximum likelihood estimator and a new estimator and prove that, by increasing the sample size of the intermediate data, these estimators and the above‐mentioned estimator of the mean lifetime can achieve the same levels of accuracy as the estimators assuming one has failure times. Thus, our method of using only intermediate data is useful for highly reliable products when their failure times are difficult to obtain. Furthermore, we show that the proposed new estimator of the lifetime distribution function is more accurate than the standard and modified maximum likelihood estimators. We also obtain approximate confidence intervals for the lifetime distribution function and its percentiles. Finally, we use light‐emitting diodes as an example to illustrate our method and demonstrate how to validate the Wiener assumption during the testing. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

H2O2/HTPB固液混合发动机点火试验研究

利用H2O2催化分解原理,设计了烃类燃料在催化分解的90%H2O2中能燃烧的点火器,然后采用该点火器进行H2O2/HTPB固液混合发动机点火试验研究.试验结果表明,该点火器能够成功启动H2O2/HTPB固液混合发动机,且当混合比偏离最佳混合比后,发动机的燃烧效率降低.     

关于半鞅向量随机积分的两个结果

首先利用半鞅Girsanov定理与闭图像定理证明了:若{Xn}是带滤基的完备概率空间(Ω,F,F,P)中的一列半鞅,其中滤基F=(Ft)t≥0满足通常条件,且{Xn}在关于P的Emery拓扑空间中收敛于X,则当概率测度Q相似文献