基于过程建模的复杂装备虚拟维修训练仿真

针对复杂装备维修训练的特点,结合Petri网技术研究了维修作业过程的描述方法,建立了维修作业过程描述模型,可以清晰表达各维修作业间的逻辑关系、约束条件和维修保障资源的配置,引入时间概念也便于某些维修性分析工作的开展;基于此过程描述模型设计并开发了某型装备的虚拟维修训练系统,通过仿真实例,说明该系统可以有效地解决装备维修训练中存在的问题,具有一定的实用价值。     

考虑多类资源的多任务并行维修过程Petri网建模

针对基本Petri网在建立多种任务共享多类资源情况下的复杂并行维修过程时存在的结构复杂化问题,应用网抽象原理,由简入繁,将库所变迁网模型逐步转化为常量弧有色网和有色网模型,由单类任务/单类资源、单类任务/多类资源模型逐步建立了考虑多类资源的多任务并行维修过程模型。采用Petri网仿真分析工具ExSpect对有色网模型进行了实例研究。结果表明：模型具有通用性,便于仿真实现。     

机组动态过程分析中处理转子运动的方法

分析军用便携式发电机组在单机供电及并联供电情况下的动态过程有利于提高其供电质量.采用有限元法计算电机动态过程需要在电机电磁场计算时实现转子的自由转动.从运动导电媒质中的电磁场方程出发,分析了固定坐标系求解方法及移动坐标系求解各方法的特点.针对军用便携式发电机组单机供电及并联供电情况下动态过程的特点分析,对各种处理转子运动的方法进行了比较,得出的结论对于研究军用便携式发电机组单机供电及并联供电情况时处理转子运动的方法选取具有理论指导意义.     

多层次区域炮兵地面侦察配系效能的评估

为了评估由于侦察区域大、目标机动性强等特点而建立的炮兵地面侦察配系的效能,运用排队论方法,建立了侦察配系效能评估模型.该模型综合考虑了各种因素对侦察配系效能的影响,把侦察区域按照距离的远近划分为不同的范围来进行侦察配系的效能评估.当目标流的速率发生变化时,依然可以灵活运用该模型对侦察配系的效能做出准确的评估.以雷达侦察配系为例,论证了评估模型在侦察效能评估中的可行性,为侦察配系效能评估提供了可靠的分析方法.     

Optimal search for a moving target with the option to wait

We investigate the problem in which an agent has to find an object that moves between two locations according to a discrete Markov process (Pollock, Operat Res 18 (1970) 883–903). At every period, the agent has three options: searching left, searching right, and waiting. We assume that waiting is costless whereas searching is costly. Moreover, when the agent searches the location that contains the object, he finds it with probability 1 (i.e. there is no overlooking). Waiting can be useful because it could induce a more favorable probability distribution over the two locations next period. We find an essentially unique (nearly) optimal strategy, and prove that it is characterized by two thresholds (as conjectured by Weber, J Appl Probab 23 (1986) 708–717). We show, moreover, that it can never be optimal to search the location with the lower probability of containing the object. The latter result is far from obvious and is in clear contrast with the example in Ross (1983) for the model without waiting. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

基于FAHP的岸防炮兵雷达作战效能评估分析方法

针对岸防炮兵雷达的特点和作战任务,从探测能力、定位能力、数据处理能力、目标识别能力、抗干扰能力、可用性、可靠性和生存能力8个指标层,建立岸防炮兵雷达作战效能评估的层次结构体系,并确定了指标体系综合指标的随机性和模糊性,运用模糊层次分析法对雷达效能进行综合评估,给出了确立各因素权重的方法.为该雷达作战使用提供了辅助决策的依据.     

层次分析法在反坦克导弹阵地选择中的应用

反坦克导弹是未来高技术战争中不可或缺的反装甲兵种,特别是在渡海登岛作战中,先头抢滩登陆部队能否巩固和扩大登陆场地,很大程度取决于登陆部队反装甲力量的运用.在此过程中,反坦克导弹分队的阵地选择极其重要,运用层次分析法建立反坦克导弹阵地选择的递阶层次模型,通过计算,确定反坦克导弹阵地选择的最佳方案通过组合一致性检验,选择地形单元C_1为反坦克导弹阵地,作为最终的决策依据.     

Consequence of reinforced SiC particles and post process artificial ageing on microstructure and mechanical properties of friction stir processed AA7075

Friction stir processing and post process artificial ageing was successfully carried out on AA7075 with and without reinforcement of SiC particles producing defect free processed zone with uniform distribution of filler material. Effect of SiC particle reinforcement and artificial ageing times on the microstructural modifications was characterized using optical and electron microscopy, electron backscattered diffraction and X-Ray diffraction. Hardness, impact and wear tests were carried out to investigate mechanical behaviour before and after processing. Reinforcement of SiC particles during FSP and subsequent age hardening treatment brought about nearly twofold increase in hardness and impact toughness values by the combined effect of grain refinement, Zener pinning, dispersion strengthening and precipitation hardening. Significant improvement in wear resistance in terms of wear loss was also observed after processing compared to the reference material AA7075-T6. Fractured surface of post FSP age hardened AA7075 alloy exhibited features of ductile fracture during Charpy impact test.     

Optimal production ramp-up in the smartphone manufacturing industry

Motivated by challenges in the smartphone manufacturing industry, we develop a dynamic production ramp-up model that can be applied to economically satisfy nonstationary demand for short-life-cycle products by high-tech companies. Due to shorter life cycles and more rapid evolution of smartphones, production ramp-up has been increasingly critical to the success of a new smartphone. In the production ramp-up, the key challenge is to match the increasing capacity to nonstationary demand. The high-tech smartphone manufacturers are urged to jointly consider the effect of increasing capacity and decreasing demand. We study the production planning problem using a high-dimensional Markov decision process (MDP) model to characterize the production ramp-up. To address the curse of dimensionality, we refine Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) algorithm and theoretically analyze its convergence and computational complexity. In a real case study, we find that the MDP model achieves revenue improvement by stopping producing the existing product earlier than the benchmark policy. In synthetic instances, we validate that the proposed MCTS algorithm saves computation time without loss of solution quality compared with traditional value iteration algorithm. As part of the Lenovo production solution, our MDP model enables high-tech smartphone manufacturers to better plan the production ramp-up.     

考虑非线性退化与随机失效阈值的剩余寿命预测

针对广泛存在的非线性退化设备,现有方法尚未考虑随机失效阈值对剩余寿命预测结果的影响。因此,通过对设备性能退化过程进行分析,提出了一种综合考虑非线性退化与随机失效阈值的剩余寿命预测方法。基于Wiener过程构建了考虑个体差异与测量误差的非线性退化模型;基于卡尔曼滤波算法建立状态空间模型以实现对退化状态的在线更新;基于极大似然法估计失效阈值分布系数估计方法,得到随机失效阈值的概率分布;基于随机失效阈值推导出剩余寿命的概率分布,实现对剩余寿命的在线预测。算例研究表明,所提方法可以有效地提升剩余寿命预测的准确性,具备一定工程应用价值。