方案评估动态推演模型设计

指挥机关制定战斗方案后,使用仿真方法进行评估已经成为部队验证方案或计划可行性的重要手段。但目前对于仿真系统的关键引擎动态推演模型如何构建尚没有细致的研究,可参考性、操作性不强,本文系统地探讨了动态推演模型的构建,分析了动态推演在方案评估过程中的作用,设计了军事概念模型,给出了关键步骤的操作、算法、及关键技术,利用该动态推演模型可以构建各种用途的动态推演系统,模型及系统提供指挥员进行战斗方案评估的新的手段,能有效提高我军对方案定量分析的能力。     

以色列边界观的演变

以色列的边界观不仅是其对于边界的态度与看法,而且还浓缩着以色列与阿拉伯国家之间的恩恩怨怨．以色列边界观的演变实际上是以阿关系的另一种写照。对以色列边界观的演变进行论述,以从另一侧面解读以阿关系。     

Plague and Paradox: Militias in Iraq

Politicians, political pundits, and others focus a lot of attention on the political militias in Iraq, usually blaming them for their destabilising effect on the country and insisting that they disband. This study examines the impact that the militias in Iraq have on the Iraqi government's ability to consolidate control over its territory by first explaining how militias rose to prominence in Iraq during the power vacuum created by Saddam Hussein's ousting, then analysing the many ways militias adversely impact the security situation. The study then examines the other side of the argument – that is, why militias enjoy so much support in Iraq among their constituencies, and why they may actually be necessary to achieve stability in Iraq in the short term.     

The art of net assessment and uncovering foreign military innovations: Learning from Andrew W. Marshall’s legacy

ABSTRACT

Andrew W. Marshall, who shaped the way in which contemporary international security experts think about strategy, has been mostly associated with the invention of net assessment. The intellectual sources of this analytical technique, and of the related competitive strategies concept, could be traced to Marshall’s efforts to uncover Soviet post-World War II defense transformations. This article outlines the essence of these Soviet innovations – the empirical frame of reference that inspired Marshall. It provides a new perspective on the history of the net-assessment methodology, advances the debate within strategic studies over the nature of military innovations, and offers insights for experts examining defense transformations worldwide.     

Meeting the growing safeguards burden

ABSTRACT

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) faces challenges in fulfilling its safeguards mandate as a result of an expanding safeguards burden and a relatively static budget. This dilemma has been exacerbated by the additional burdens of implementing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Iran, but would not go away if implementation of the JCPOA were to end. There are three main areas of opportunity for the Agency: (1) budgetary expansion tied to changes in staffing policies, (2) changes in safeguards approaches, and (3) technological innovation. Barriers and limitations are associated with each approach, and advancing any of them will face a difficult political environment in Vienna.