Re-thinking the Unthinkable: Arms Control in the Twenty-First Century

ABSTRACT

Since the end of the Cold War, arms control proponents tried to make the case for deep nuclear reductions and other forms of security cooperation as necessary for strategic stability. While different versions of strategic stability analysis did sometimes produce innovative proposals, constructive negotiations, and successful ratification campaigns in the past, this analytical framework has become more of a hindrance than a help. Treating arms control as a predominantly technical way to make deterrence more stable by changing force structure characteristics, military operations, relative numbers of weapons on either side, or total number of nuclear weapons gives short shrift to political factors, including the fundamental assumptions about world politics that inform different arms control logics, the quality of political relations among leading states, and the political processes that affect negotiation, ratification, and implementation. This article compares two logics for arms control as a means to enhance strategic stability, one developed by the Cambridge community in the 1960s and one used by the Reagan administration and its successors, with current perspectives on strategic stability in which flexibility and freedom of action are preferable to predictability and arms control. It also contrasts what the Barack Obama administration has tried to achieve through strategic stability dialogues with Russia and China with how they envision security cooperation. It then presents an approach developed during the Cold War by Hedley Bull for thinking about both the technical and the political dimensions of arms control, and suggests that the logic of Cooperative Security (which shares important features with Bull's approach) is a more appropriate and productive way to think about arms control in the twenty-first century than strategic stability analysis is.     

SHINING A SPOTLIGHT ON THE SPACE RACE IN ASIA

Asia's Space Race: National Motivations, Regional Rivalries, and International Risks, by James Clay Moltz. Columbia University Press, 2012. 290 pages, $35.     

US Advanced Conventional Systems and Conventional Prompt Global Strike Ambitions:

ABSTRACT

The dangers and risks of employing a Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) capability greatly exceed the benefits. More suitable, if less prompt, alternatives exist to deal with fleeting targets. Even a niche CPGS capability—consisting of approximately twenty systems—carries risks, to say nothing of proposals to develop hundreds or more. Most dangerously, CPGS could stir the pre-emption pot, particularly vis-à-vis states that correctly perceive to be within the gunsights of US CPGS weapons; other states, too, may feel emboldened to emulate this US precedent and undertake their own form of prompt, long-range strike capability. Compressed circumstances surrounding such a scenario could foster unwanted erratic behavior, including the misperception that the threatening missile carries a nuclear weapon. But the true Achilles's heel of the CPGS concept is the unprecedented demands it places on the intelligence community to provide decision makers with “exquisite” intelligence within an hour timeframe. Such compressed conditions leave decision makers with virtually no time to appraise the direct—and potentially unintended—consequences of their actions.     

Private security contractors and international humanitarian law—a skirmish for recognition in international armed conflicts

In recent international armed conflicts private security contractors (PSCs) have played an ever increasing role and military advisors and tribunals are facing the dilemma of assessing the primary and secondary status of PSCs under international humanitarian law. In this article the misconception that PSCs are necessarily mercenaries will be dispelled. The possibility that PSCs might be categorised as combatants or civilians will then be explored. The conclusion is that where they are incorporated into the armed forces of a state, PSCs might attain combatant status. However, given that states are reluctant to formally incorporate PSCs into their armed forces, they will most likely remain essentially civilian. Their degree of participation in hostilities will determine whether they retain their immunity under international humanitarian law from attack and prosecution (as civilians) or whether they are rendered unlawful belligerents.     

论“空海一体战”与中国国家安全

“空海一体战”是美国的一种新型作战理论,是在20世纪80年代“空地一体战”等诸多战法及兵种妥协基础上形成的一种新型军事战略,旨在通过空海军力量的配合,进行近域作战,以抵消对手的反进入/区域拒止能力,取得战争的主动权与控制权.“空海一体战”作为美国战略重心东移的重要角力点与支撑要素,在美国亚太战略中的作用举足轻重,对亚太周边国家尤其是中国的国家安全构成重大威胁,为此有必要对其理论渊源、发展目标、策略行动及障碍缺陷进行剖析与解构,为中国维护国家安全,构建良好的国家安全环境提供战略储备与智力支持.     

“金新月”地区毒品向我国渗透的现状与对策

目前,以阿富汗为中心的＂金新月＂地区毒品向我国渗透活动日益加剧,并呈现出组织化、专业化和国际化趋势,地处＂金新月＂边缘的我国新疆地区深受其害,毒品案件不断上升,恐怖势力以毒养恐的趋向愈发明显,对我国边境安全构成了极大的威胁。加强禁毒情报工作,打牢禁毒工作基础;提高管控能力,严防毒品渗透;加强堵源截流工作;加强国际禁毒合作;严厉打击毒品犯罪是解决＂金新月＂地区毒品向我国渗透的有效途径。     

兵团幼儿教师职业倦怠研究

教师职业倦怠是教师长期在高水平压力体验下产生的情感、态度和行为的一种衰竭状态,是教师对不能顺利应对工作压力的极端反应。本研究采用根据改编过的Maslach倦怠量表对225名新疆兵团骨干幼儿教师进行问卷调查,结果显示:新疆兵团幼儿教师职业倦怠总体状况较为良好;经方差分析4-6年教龄的幼儿教师较其他教龄幼儿的教师表现出更为严重的情绪衰竭;大专以下学历的幼儿教师与本科学历幼儿教师都出现了不同程度上的情绪衰竭,其中本科教师情绪衰竭更为严重;城市和连队幼儿园教师的情绪衰竭较乡镇幼儿教师严重。据此,研究认为可从加强幼儿园建设与管理、提高社会对幼儿教师的认知、强化教师自身的疏导和调节等三个方面缓解兵团幼儿园教师职业倦怠状况。     

新疆高校少数民族人才培养模式创新研究——以新疆财经大学为例

新疆各高校是本土少数民族人才培养的主要力量,如何构建新形势下少数民族人才培养模式是新疆各高校一直探索和研究的问题。为此对新疆财经大学近二十年少数民族教学改革历程进行梳理,以"民汉一体化"教育教学改革中出现的问题进行深层次剖析,从高校实际出发,在高校办学模式、人才培养模式及教学模式等方面探讨少数民族教育教学改革的思路。     

论高中《政治生活》实施探究性学习的一般模式

探究性学习的实质是要求教师转变教育观念,在教学中充分调动学生学习的主动性和积极性,激发学生学习的主人翁意识,真正使学生成为学习的主人。因此高中政治课的课堂教学应该充分渗透探究性学习的精神,同时教师又应在这一宗旨的指导下,根据教材的内容和特点的不同采用不同的模式,选用不同的方法,这样才能达到构建高效课堂的目的。