Capacity expansion under a service‐level constraint for uncertain demand with lead times

For a service provider facing stochastic demand growth, expansion lead times and economies of scale complicate the expansion timing and sizing decisions. We formulate a model to minimize the infinite horizon expected discounted expansion cost under a service‐level constraint. The service level is defined as the proportion of demand over an expansion cycle that is satisfied by available capacity. For demand that follows a geometric Brownian motion process, we impose a stationary policy under which expansions are triggered by a fixed ratio of demand to the capacity position, i.e., the capacity that will be available when any current expansion project is completed, and each expansion increases capacity by the same proportion. The risk of capacity shortage during a cycle is estimated analytically using the value of an up‐and‐out partial barrier call option. A cutting plane procedure identifies the optimal values of the two expansion policy parameters simultaneously. Numerical instances illustrate that if demand grows slowly with low volatility and the expansion lead times are short, then it is optimal to delay the start of expansion beyond when demand exceeds the capacity position. Delays in initiating expansions are coupled with larger expansion sizes. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

基于本体的战场环境信息规范化目录服务研究

目录服务是面向服务架构的战场环境保障系统的重要功能,其根本目的是使分布、海量战场环境信息形成面向任务的数据集,供作战人员使用.为了规范战场环境信息目录服务并实现智能查询功能,将OGC-CSW规范和本体引入战场环境信息目录服务的设计中,建立了战场环境信息目录服务框架,并重点对面向任务的元数据信息模型、任务本体模型以及语义查询机制等关键技术进行了深入研究.最后通过实验对文中方法进行了验证.     

以联合训练推动军种训练提质增效

联合训练以军种训练为基本支撑,形成作战能力的关键在于军种训练与联合训练的无缝衔接。在新的领导指挥体制下,战区作为组织开展联合训练的主体,必须将军种训练纳入战区联合训练的整体计划。因此,军种训练要从标准体系、训练内容、组训模式等方面进行革新优化,切实将军种作战能力融合形成联合作战能力。本文针对当前军种在训练过程中出现的思维转变慢、训法不灵活和联训质效偏低等问题,着眼联训需求、部队建设实际以及战争发展方向,从提升联合素养、深化联合观念、丰富训练内容、引入智能化军事训练方法、优化训练环境、督导训练落实等方面提出了对策建议,以期以联合训练牵引军种训练提质增效,切实推动联合训练不断向高水平跃升。     

卫星移动通信信道模型及仿真

对移动卫星通信的三种典型信道进行了完整的理论分析.通信信号在不同的信道参数条件下,经过瑞利(Rayleingh)信道、莱斯(Rician)信道和阻挡效应下的莱斯信道(Rician/Lognormal)进行了计算机仿真,得到了仿真结果.经分析比较发现,信道参数不同,得到的误码率曲线不同.信道的性能主要取决于信道参数,各种因素的影响可以归结到这些参数的影响,理论分析和仿真实验结果一致.     

防空通信系统效能评估

防空通信系统是保障防空指挥和控制有效性的重要手段,其效能的好坏将直接影响到作战结果.在分析效能评估方法的基础上,根据防空通信系统的特点,建立了防空通信系统综合评估指标体系.对防空通信系统的效能评估过程进行了描述,给出了效能评估模型和评估方法,并进行了实例分析.对全面而科学地评价防空通信系统的效能具有较强的实用性.     

基于语义的AdHoc网络服务发现

在分析现有的Ad Hoc网络服务发现方法的基础上,提出一种基于语义的Ad Hoc网络服务发现方法。该方法基于语义推理机制,能对服务进行准确地刻画,大大提高了查准率;又由于该方法在考虑服务本身的同时,还考虑了服务的节点属性和节点所处的环境属性,可以有效地改善服务质量。仿真结果表明,与同类的Ad Hoc网络服务发现方法相比,该方法在查准率方面具有较大的优越性。     

基于TOPSIS算法的防空通信网络系统效能评估

简要分析了防空通信网络系统的主要任务,建立了防空通信网络系统的效能评估指标体系。提出了利用TOPSIS算法进行防空通信网络效能评估的方法,可根据影响通信网络系统效能的指标及权重,对不同组网方式下的防空通信网络系统效能进行评估。示例表明,利用TOPSIS算法可对防空通信网络效能进行评估排序,能够为指挥员的决策规划提供参考。     

对流层散射下MPLS重路由信号去噪研究

针对对流层散射信道MPLS重路由信号数据含有噪声的问题,分析了Facility重路由原理和MPLS标签转发过程,引入小波阈值去噪算法对含噪声标签信号数据进行处理。利用一种随分解层数变化的阈值和折中阈值函数规则,来解决传统算法中的阈值确定和阈值函数选取存在的问题,针对折中阈值函数规则中参数a的确定问题,利用模拟数据,以信噪比(SNR)为目标函数,采用定步长变a形式,从而得到去噪效果最好时对应的a值,并用实测数据加以验证。仿真结果表明,改进后的算法在信噪比上有1.5 d B~3.4 d B的提高,均方差(RMSE)下降约0.01~0.03,为路由修复信号的去噪提供一种可行的方案。     

星间激光通信系统粗精复合扫瞄技术研究

星间激光通信系统主要分为捕获,瞄准,跟踪(APT)技术,其中捕获技术是星间激光通信系统实现通信的前提和保障,本文通过对传统凝视-扫描模式下信标光的粗瞄捕获原理,关键技术和工程应用等内容进行了详细的研究,提出了一种粗瞄与精瞄相互结合的螺旋-正弦复合扫描的方法,对该方法扫描过程中的数值分析表明,相比传统的单一粗瞄扫描方式,粗精复合扫描方法的扫描漏扫区域比单一粗扫描漏扫区域小,捕获概率更高,捕获时间短,为星间激光通信扫描捕获过程提供了一种新的扫描方式,具有重要的意义。     

The growth in military expenditure in Germany 1951–2011: did parties matter?

We examine whether government ideology was correlated with the growth in military expenditure in Germany over the period 1951–2011. Using various measures of government ideology, the results do not show any effect. The exception is an ideology measure based on the Comparative Manifesto Project (left-right scale): using this measure, the results show that the growth in military expenditure increased by about 2.4 percentage points, when the ideology variable (right-wing) increased by one standard deviation. This effect, however, is based on observations until the early 1960s and cannot be generalized. The major political parties agreed on how to evaluate international risks and threats. Government ideology retired to the background. We conjecture that the consensus among the major parties will persist – even if military spending needs to be increased in response to new international risks and threats.