防区外多导弹协同突防复合制导研究

针对防区外多导弹协同突防要求导弹能够成功突破敌防御系统并击中目标的问题,提出了一种基于虚拟目标的复合制导规律。首先,在敌雷达探测范围的边缘设置虚拟目标,将导弹制导过程分为制导段Ⅰ和制导段Ⅱ。然后,研究了一种基于攻击时间和攻击角度控制的制导规律,使导弹在制导段Ⅰ按指定时间和角度追踪到虚拟目标,导弹转入制导段Ⅱ后在以攻击时间最短为指标函数的最优制导规律导引下攻击真实目标。仿真结果表明该复合制导规律大大提高了多导弹的整体突防能力。     

《人民武装警察法》合道德性评价

对实在法的评价是法的价值问题研究的一个重要内容。《武警法》是我国军事立法的一个重大突破,是武警部队建设与发展历史上的一座里程碑。从实在法合道德性评价的角度,对《武警法》的立法目的、颁布后所产生的社会反响及实施情况进行研究,以期社会特别是部队官兵对《武警法》的价值有更深刻的理解,进一步推进建设现代化武警的步伐,进一步促进各项任务的圆满完成。     

A platform for initial testing of multiple camouflage patterns

The human visual system is still an important factor in military warfare; military personnel receive training on effective search strategies, and camouflage that can effectively conceal objects and personnel is a key component of a successful integrated survivability strategy. Previous methods of camouflage assessment have, amongst others, used psychophysics to generate distinctiveness metrics. However, the population from which the human observers are drawn is often not well defined, or necessarily appropriate. In this experiment we designed a new platform for testing multiple patterns based on a camouflaged object detection task, and investigate whether trained military observers perform better than civilians. We use a two-alternative forced choice paradigm, with participants searching images of woodland for a replica military helmet displaying Olive Green, Multi Terrain Pattern, US Marine Pattern or, as a conspicuous control, UN Peacekeeper Blue. Our data show that there is no difference in detection performance between the two observer groups but that there are clear differences in the effectiveness of the different helmet colour patterns in a temperate woodland environment. We conclude that when tasks involve very short stimulus presentation times, task-specific training has little effect on the success of target detection and thus this paradigm is particularly suitable for robust estimates of camouflage efficacy.     

电子产品在振动环境中的损伤效应研究

在分析电子装备结构特点及冲击振动环境影响因素基础上,阐述了电子产品在冲击振动环境中的损伤机理与模式。以某型雷达装备为试验对象,选取该装备某型组合体与电路板进行冲击振动与扫频振动试验,分析了电子产品在振动环境中的损伤规律。试验表明:电子产品在振动环境中的损伤不仅与振动类型及幅值有关,也与其自身结构有着密切的关系。     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND VIOLENT INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT: 1875–1999

This paper extends the joint product model of military alliances to apply to the new strategic doctrine adopted by NATO in the 1990s. In particular, a choice must be made between protecting one's own territory and pooling forces for an alliancewide rapid reaction force. This new model accounts for a host of externalities and their implications for burden sharing, full financing, and allocative efficiency. The Pigouvian taxes that adjust for force thinning and attack deflection are shown to finance optimal border‐protecting forces under a variety of circumstances. Second‐best considerations arise owing to the pure publicness of rapid reaction forces. The ideal toll arrangement does not currently characterize NATO financing, nor is it likely to do so.     

Is there a Greek‐Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests†

Greece and Turkey are both members of NATO and are two of the principal players in the Balkan region. Their respective defence burdens (i.e. the share of military expenditure to GDP) are the highest in NATO. Their bilateral relations are marred by serious friction and conflict of interest and have on a number of occasions come close to an armed confrontation. Their strategic interaction and mutual weapons build‐up has recently attracted the attention of researchers in the field testing the hypothesis of a Greek‐Turkish arms race with conflicting results. This paper, using cointegration and causality tests, finds evidence of a systematic armaments competition between the two countries provided that a defence policy regime shift estimated to occur in 1985 is explicitly taken into consideration. This policy regime change is associated with the stagnation of defence spending in Greece owing to the gradual deterioration of Greek public finances over the last decade.     

Development and conflict in the Balkans: Catch-up and military expenditure

This paper analyses the convergence between countries in relation to the catch-up hypothesis concerning the level of total productivity. The catch-up hypothesis claims that poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries through the international diffusion of knowledge and technology. We test this hypothesis for the Balkan countries and investigate the effect of military expenditure in the region on productivity growth. The aim is to investigate empirically whether productivity growth has been greater in countries with lower military expenditure, in line with theory. The results obtained show that, overall, improvements in technological change co-exist with deteriorating technical efficiency change and that there is a negative correlation between military expenditure and either total productivity growth and technological change, and a positive, but statistically insignificant, relationship with technical efficiency change. We conclude that economic growth is the key to regional development and that too great a diversion of resources to military commitments can lead to overstretch.     

The military recruiting productivity slowdown: The roles of resources,opportunity cost and the tastes of youth*

After a decade of successful recruiting, the US military began experiencing recruiting difficulties in the 1990s. Cyclical factors as well as trend factors may have played a role. This paper uses monthly data by state over the period 1989-1997 to estimate models of enlistment and evaluate the various explanations for the recruiting slowdown. Estimates of the impact of economic variables - relative military pay and unemployment - and recruiting resource variables - recruiters and advertising - are similar to those in previous studies. Two trend factors, rising college attendance and declining adult veteran population (influencers), are found to be important factors explaining the decline in enlistment.     

On the production of victory: Empirical determinants of battlefield success in modern war

Using a data set of historical battles from 1600 to 1973, this paper analyzes the empirical determinants of tactical success in modern war. Based on a reduced form approach we consider key elements of military theory as production factors for combat success as an output of a military production function. The paper focuses on the relationship of material and non-material factors to battlefield success, and especially on the role of superior force strengths. Contrary to the emphasis on technology which can be found in the recent literature, our estimation results indicate that numerical superiority has retained its crucial role for battlefield performance throughout history. In general, human elements of warfare, like leadership, morale and surprise, have continued to be important determinants of battle outcome despite technological progress in weapons.     

How old is too old? An economic approach to replacing military aircraft

The US Air Force is asking when to replace its aging aircraft. We develop a framework to identify economically optimal replacement strategies that recognizes cost trade-offs and incorporates age effects. We also preview a stochastic methodology. We use the framework to identify an optimal strategy, defined by the replacement age, for a generic fleet and conduct a sensitivity analysis. Quantitative illustrations show that the range of strategies that provides close-to-optimal outcomes widens as the operating and support (O&S) cost growth rate decreases and the ratio of the acquisition price to the initial O&S cost increases. A wider range implies more decision-making leeway.