灰色数列预测应用分析

对灰色理论与统计分析在装备经济管理工作中的实用性分别以模型机理、模型数据处理复杂性和模型结果精度三方面进行了比较分析,着重指出在某些情况下灰色模型具有小样本而精度高的特点,并列举了实例加以说明．     

The Demand for Military Expenditure in Europe: The Role of Fiscal Space in the Context of a Resurgent Russia

A variant of established work on the demand for military expenditure is developed based on a practical concept of fiscal space from the perspective of short-term government choices concerning public expenditures. A new indicator, referred to as fiscal capacity, is defined and used as a candidate explanatory variable in an empirical model of European defence spending over the 2007–2016 period. Fiscal capacity is found to outperform simpler measurements of economic conditions, notably GDP growth forecasts, in explaining changes in defence spending efforts as a share of GDP. Regarding security environment variables, the results suggest that Russia has recently come to be seen as a potential military threat by European nations, leading to defence spending increases, the more so the shorter the distance to stationed or deployed Russian forces, and particularly so by those European nations that have a land border with Russia. A prospective exercise is then carried out in order to assess the capacity of EU member states that are also members of NATO to reach NATO’s 2% goal for defence spending over a mid-term horizon.     

Varieties of defection strategies from multinational military coalitions: Insights from operation Iraqi freedom

How do states defect from multinational military coalitions? The question deserves considerable academic scrutiny, as states increasingly rely on coalitions to prosecute military missions. Yet to the extent that coalition defection has been explored, the extant literature tends to see defection as a binary undertaking – states are either in or out. In practice, however, defection is an act of risk minimization in a manner that forces other coalition partners to fill resulting operational gaps. A coalition can therefore appear stable due to a constant number of flags associated with the mission, but in practice be much less coherent and capable. After defining defection as a non-routine abrogation of operational responsibility at other coalition partners’ expense, significantly prior to mission conclusion, this article explores several states’ participation in Operation Iraqi Freedom and the various manners by which they defected from that coalition. It concludes with implications for future scholarship.     

From the sociology of the (military) profession to the sociology of (security) expertise: the case of European national defence universities

Few would disagree that European militaries have experienced dramatic changes since the end of the Cold War. Much of the discussion on these changes to date has referred to the concept of professionalism. However, this approach became outdated as professions in post-industrialist societies entered a state of crisis as a result of growing competition from a variety of competitors. The present study adapts a new framework from the sociology of knowledge literature – sociology of expertise – into one, sociology of security expertise, which is suitable for study of contemporary armed forces. Its utility is demonstrated through analysis of five European professional military education institutions. The analysis shows that European military organisations are transiting, albeit in various degrees, from one form of social organisation of military knowledge production – associated with the military education model common to traditional military colleges – toward another, which is related to the military education model of national defence universities. Hence it is highly probable that European military organisations lose, either voluntary or unintentionally, their professional character and can no longer be unquestionably assumed to be military professions. Hence, they should be analysed hereafter using the sociology of security expertise framework.     

Effect of bending temperatures on the microstructure and springback of a TRIP steel sheet

Transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) steel possesses high strength and formability, enabling the use of a thinner gauge material and allowing for the fabrication of complex shapes. In this research, we measured the effect of bending temperatures on the microstructure and air-bending springback angle of TRIP steel at temperatures from 25 to 600 °C. Real-time in situ X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy were used for pre- and postbending analysis. As the prebending temperature increased from 25 °C to 600 °C, the retained austenite (RA) volume fraction decreased, and the RA transformed to bainite at temperatures above 400 °C. The springback angle was positively correlated with the prebending RA volume fraction, with the smallest springback angle achieved at 400 °C. Additionally, the springback angle was positively correlated with the bending angle, because the RA transformation ratio contributed to increased strain hardening. Further microstructure analysis revealed that the RA became elongated in the tension direction as the bending temperatures increased.     

The Regional Economic Effects of Military Base Realignments and Closures

This paper empirically investigates the impact of military base realignments and closures on regional economic activity in light of the 2005 round of Base Realignment and Closure actions. Baseline regressions with county-level data show employment multipliers comparable to those generated from conventional input–output models. However, controlling for possible endogeneity and other regional-specific factors, regressions indicate more tenuous results for spillover effects from the military to the private sector. Only the contractor type of base employment generated economically and statistically meaningful impacts on local employment. In addition, there is strong evidence of asymmetric effects between military buildups and drawdowns.     

基于军民融合的军事信息资源效能转化

军事信息资源效能转化的强弱,事关军队信息化建设和军队战斗力生成,需要引起高度重视。本文阐述军民融合对军事信息效能转化工作的巨大推动力,并通过分析当前制约军民融合军事信息资源效能转化的内因和外因,提出完善军民融合军事信息资源效能转化工作的措施建议。     

加强海防部队信息化建设

陆军海防部队是新型陆军的重要组成部分。军队规模结构和力量编成调整改革后,海防部队进行了全面整体重塑。海防部队信息化建设矛盾仍存在规划建设多元、装备相对滞后等问题。信息化建设应立足海防部队"岸岛海衔接、侦攻防一体"要求,尽快解决薄弱问题,加速推进向信息化、智能化海防转型发展。     

某高炮数字指挥仪的改造

为了使某高炮数字指挥仪能够适应现代战争的需要,遵照中央军委关于"要用高新技术改造现役装备"的指示,在不降低原高炮数字指挥仪战术技术性能的基础上,加装了红外热像仪、激光测距机、激光距离转换计算机、雷达诸元转换计算机.使该装备不仅能够与部队现配置的雷达连接使用,还增加了目标探测手段,增强了夜间作战能力,提高了装备的性能,成为新一代的光电防空火控系统,适应现代战争的要求.     

一种基于Hough变换的线型群体队型识别方法

作战群体的队型是作战群体的重要属性之一,它往往反映了群体中各成员之间的协作关系,直接体现着该群体近期的作战意图、身份及威胁等态势信息。为了给指挥人员的态势评估及军事指挥提供更多深层次的战场信息,从而为其决策提供更好的支持,重点研究了作战群体线型队型的识别问题。利用Hough变换的点线对偶特性,给出了线型队型的模板建模方法,提出了基于参数点聚类的线型队型特征提取方法,进而给出了基于模板匹配的线型队型识别方法。仿真实验表明,该方法是行之有效的。