On the nature and scope of defence economics

Defence economics uses the tools of economics to study the defence sector and its domestic and international implications. Simple models require careful application in defence economics, since indirect effects may have counterintuitive impacts. For example, while certain arms races can lead to the outbreak of war, others may have the counterintuitive effect of discouraging the outbreak of war owing to mutual deterrence.

The world is now multipolar rather than bipolar, analogous to an oligopoly situation. This multipolar world can be analyzed by a qualitative characteristic function, where the formation of a potential coalition allows study of the shift from conflict to cooperation in international relations. Some new issues to be considered in this framework include accidental nuclear war, potential arms races and conflicts in the third world, and the proliferation of chemical weapons and missiles.     

SOCIAL PREFERENCES FOR NATIONAL DEFENCE AND POLICE ENFORCEMENT IN WESTERN EUROPE

We study the determinants of social preferences for national defence and for police and law enforcement. For this task, we estimate a bivariate ordered probit model for a set of European countries (France, Finland, Norway, Portugal, Spain and Sweden) in 2006. Determinants of spending decisions for defence and police are found to be linked but are of significantly different magnitudes. Besides, measures against terrorist threats are positively linked to police and defence spending increases, while the subjective perception of fiscal pressure has no influence. Finally, no significant differences are found between Northern and Southern Europe.     

Military Expenditure as a Proxy for State Power. The Case of France

This paper attempts to build a simple indicator of state power. Military expenditure is the paper’s point of departure, with the definitions given by NATO, SIPRI and others. This definition is discussed and a power version is build, using French budgetary data. Then a defence of the result against traditional or non-traditional critics is presented under an imperative of action. Finally, this concept is enlarged and a new concept of power expenditures is given, one more time using French budgetary data. The conclusion is that this large expenditure concept is an unbiased but imperfect indicator of the will to act, and has to be completed by GDP to indicate the capability to act in the long-run.     

美军针对高超声速武器的反导预警能力发展态势分析

高超声速武器具有飞行速度快、精确毁伤和高效突防等特点,具有重要的战略威慑和实战应用价值,它能够大幅改变未来战争的态势,已成为大国打破战略平衡、打赢未来战争的新型“杀手锏”。随着高超声速武器逐步走向战场,世界各主要国家的反导防御体系将向更高预警维度、更快反应速度和更大打击力度的天地一体联合防御方向发展。本文分析了高超声速武器作战优势及其对未来战争的影响和威胁,阐述了美军现有反导预警能力的基本架构与能力缺陷,对其未来反高超声速武器的预警能力建设及发展态势进行了研判与预测。美军“优先发展天基反导作战体系,发挥低轨卫星主体作用”的反高超声速武器发展思路对于军队反导反高超声速武器能力建设具有一定的启示和借鉴作用。     

台湾制导武器发展剖析

台湾通过军购、仿制与自主研制 3种模式发展导弹武器,已拼凑起庞杂的导弹武器装备,并随着装备战略的变化,正在重点发展中远程精确打击能力。     

电子战环境中防空武器抗击能力分析

以电子战环境为作战背景,具体分析了敌军实施电子战的作战样式,并用模糊数学的方法对其进行了量化评估,在此基础上对一般的防空武器抗击能力模型进行了完善,建立了评价防空武器在电子战环境中抗击能力的模型。     

网络化防空导弹体系拦截联盟形成问题

拦截联盟形成是网络化防空导弹体系(NADMS)中的新问题,旨在确定目标、火力节点以及制导节点三者之间的最优匹配关系,使得NADMS整体作战效能最大。结合NADMS的分布式无中心节点体系结构,剖析了拦截联盟形成问题的本质,形式化定义了体系中出现的新型一体化作战能力;分别从运筹学与整数规划、组合优化以及经济学博弈问题角度对拦截联盟形成问题进行形式化描述,并深入探讨了集中式和分布式的拦截联盟形成方法。     

以用户为中心的防空导弹武器系统人机界面设计研究

防空导弹武器系统不断更新换代,复杂功能和简单操作需求的矛盾成为设计过程中普遍存在的问题。为优化防空导弹武器系统人机界面设计,运用人机交互学中以用户为中心的设计和评估理论,对防空导弹武器系统人机界面设计进行研究。将设计过程分为用户与需求分析、设计、评估与改进三个阶段,给出了每个阶段的工作思路以及工作重点。将方法应用于某型防空导弹武器系统人机界面设计,有效地规范了设计流程,提高了设计水平。     

Militarism in post-war Cyprus: the development of the ideology of defence

This article provides a theorisation of militarism in post-war Cyprus. Based on qualitative empirical research conducted in Cyprus in 2011, the article explores the manifestation and steadfastness of Greek-Cypriot militarism, and the development of this militarism, which appeared after the partition of the island in 1974. In particular, it proposes the ideology of defence as a way to understand post-war Greek-Cypriot militarism. It shows the embedded nature of defence in the idea of the national struggle. It aims at mapping the character of this militarism in order to provide the grounds for future discussion. Only by understanding the interconnecting discourses that made Greek-Cypriot militarism possible in post-war Cyprus, can we understand its past, present, and future.     

Strategic and Budgetary Necessity,or Decision-making ‘Along the Grain’? The Royal Navy and the 1981 Defence Review

The 1981 Defence Review undertaken by John Nott as Secretary of State for Defence controversially and dramatically cut the capabilities of the Royal Navy’s surface fleet. Many of those involved in these decisions have emphasised the budgetary and politico-strategic drivers for these reductions in capability, and the first generation of academic analysis has broadly followed this position. However, recently released government and private archival sources demonstrate that Nott’s review was initially much more severe than thought, and that this was due as much to the presumptions and assumptions of the key decision makers as to any strategic or budgetary factors.