Assessing Capabilities in International Politics: Biased Overestimation and the Case of the Imaginary ‘Missile Gap’

How states assess the capabilities of their adversaries and rivals is of paramount importance to the theory and practice of international relations. This paper presents a framework for understanding why states overestimate the capabilities of their adversaries. Three types of overestimation are presented, consisting of conscious/rational, erroneous and biased overestimation. In order to demonstrate the phenomenon of biased overestimation in international politics, the case of the ‘Missile Gap’ (1957–61) controversy in the United States is examined.     

The strategic utility of New Zealand Special Forces

In 1955, the New Zealand government authorised the creation of a Special Forces unit to operate with British forces in Malaya to counter a communist-inspired guerrilla insurgency. Drawing upon the operational experiences of the New Zealand SAS largely taken from the Cold War period, and underpinned by Colin Gray's Special Forces essentials of ‘economy of force’ and ‘expansion of choice’, this article will show how New Zealand's SAS is now accepted not only as a respected and relevant part of the nation's military capability, but also empowers its political decision-makers with the confidence to take on significant, and at times difficult, strategic foreign-policy choices.     

防空作战指挥信息化研究

防空信息化建设与作战,是整个建设信息化军队、打赢信息化战争、机械化与信息化复合跨越式发展进程中的重要组成部分,而防空作战指挥信息化又是防空信息化的重要内容.从防空作战指挥信息化的时代需求、主要特征、发展重点三个方面作以探讨,为防空信息化建设与发展提供思路和借鉴.     

“This program will not be a threat to them”: Ballistic Missile Defense and US relations with Russia and China

Although the Obama Administration has differed from its predecessor in a number of respects, on the specific issue of Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD), there is a striking continuity. The Obama Administration has remained committed to the BMD project, even as it has modified the schedule of deployments and prioritized different systems from the Bush Administration. Significantly, this has led to Chinese and Russian balancing in the nuclear sphere. As a result, there is evidence of a security dilemma-type dynamics in US relations with China and Russia. At present, there is no study that analyzes Russian and Chinese hard internal balancing against the USA in the sphere of missile defense during the Obama Administration. This article fills this gap.     

美国舰载标准系列导弹对海军防空导弹发展的影响

美国海军现役的标准导弹是一个庞大的系列,主要型号从标准1一直到标准6,每个主要型号又在不同的时期发展出多种改进型。它不仅是美国海军当前的主力舰空导弹武器装备,还出口到多个国家和地区,是世界上装备量最大、应用最为广泛的舰空导弹系统。本文主要结合标准系列导弹的发展历程,分析了标准系列导弹对世界海军防空导弹装备发展的深远影响。     

Influence without power? Reframing British concepts of military intervention after 10 years of counterinsurgency

British attitudes towards military intervention following the campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan have undergone what appears to be considerable change. Parliament has voted against the use of Britain's armed forces in Syria and the public are unenthused by overseas engagement. Conscious of the costs and the challenges posed by the use of British military power the government has been busy revamping the way it approaches crises overseas. The result is a set of policies that apparently heralds a new direction in foreign policy. This new direction is encapsulated in the Building Stability Overseas Strategy (BSOS) and the more recent International Defence Engagement Strategy (IDES). Both BSOS and IDES set out the basis for avoiding major deployments to overseas conflict and instead refocuses effort on defence diplomacy, working with and through overseas governments and partners, early warning, pre-conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction. Developing a number of themes that reach from across the Cold War to more contemporary discussions of British strategy, the goal of this special edition is to take into account a number of perspectives that place BSOS and IDES in their historical and strategic context. These papers suggest that using defence diplomacy is and will remain an extremely imprecise lever that needs to be carefully managed if it is to remain a democratically accountable tool of foreign policy.     

中远程空空反辐射导弹的战术问题

提出了一种用普通战机挂载中远程空空反辐射导弹,对抗雷达探测距离占有绝对优势的先进飞机或隐身飞机的新战法,并计算最大发射距离.该战法是在被敌方机载雷达截获并面临导弹威胁的情况下,主动发射空空反辐射导弹攻击目标辐射源,然后进行置尾机动,破坏来袭导弹的中制导,使它脱靶,达到消除来袭导弹的威胁和攻击对方的双重效果.     

舰艇编队区域防空探索性建模与分析

舰艇编队的区域防空作战是一个复杂问题.具有体系特性的战略层规划一直是其中的重点和难点.探索性分析正是适宜解决这一难题的方法论,它可以通过高层次模型的定量探索,在深入细节之前对问题有个广度的了解.依照探索性分析的思想,从宏观层次描述舰艇编队区域防空问题;基于所设计的时间片影响图分析建模软件工具EASim,建立了该问题的高...     

基于云重心理论的单舰防空作战能力评估

单舰防空是水面舰艇编队防空的基础.从水面舰艇单舰防空作战能力的基本内涵出发,按照水面舰艇单舰防空作战能力所包含的3个要素,即防空导弹作战能力、防空火炮作战能力和电子干扰装置作战能力,构建了水面舰艇单舰防空作战能力评估指标体系,针对评估指标的定性定量特性,引入云重心评估法对某水面舰艇单舰防空作战能力进行了评估.结果表明,该模型计算简便、通用性强,为解决军事领域类似问题提供了思路和方法.     

编队舰空导弹对空拦截综合模型研究

以水面舰艇编队防空为背景,用数学分析法和计算机模拟法对编队防空中预警直升机的配置和探测模型、舰载雷达的探测模型、编队对空导弹的抗击方法、编队对目标的射击能力、转火能力、杀伤概率等问题进行了研究,建立了火力方程等有关数学模型,为定量分析和优化编队对目标的作战能力提供了依据。