基于贝叶斯网络的作战目标评估

在作战指挥决策活动的筹划阶段,对敌体系要害和关键点的分析,当前尚未形成系统方法。针对此问题,利用贝叶斯网络在非精确知识表达与推理领域的优势,提出了综合考虑目标价值、打击难度、打击效果等因素的作战目标评估模型。根据判别贝叶斯网络分类器性能优于生成贝叶斯网络分类器的特点,在经相关领域专家论证的样本数据集的基础上,采取梯度下降法训练得出评估模型各结点条件概率分布。最后,利用Netica仿真软件,经样本数据测试,证明了作战目标评估模型的合理性。     

电子战飞机远距支援干扰阵位配置建模与仿真

针对电子战飞机远距支援干扰新体制雷达阵位配置问题进行研究。首先是对电子战飞机干扰效能量化分析,从俯仰和方位两个方面对干扰覆盖范围进行建模仿真。基于干扰统一方程,建立干扰阵位配置优化模型,包括阵位配置区域和阵位配置高度模型,并给出了干扰阵位配置参数的具体计算方法。最后,通过仿真实例验证模型的有效性,结果表明该模型对于电子战飞机阵位配置有一定的指导意义。     

When Peacekeepers Fail Thousands are Going to Die. The ETO in Rwanda: a Story of Deception

This study develops the concepts of fourth generation operations and the associated principles. First, the concept of fourth generation operations is introduced and defined. Fourth generation operations are the evolution and extension of third and fourth generation warfare based on a change of tactics, technology, and combatants. These operations are currently ongoing in Afghanistan and Iraq, and with the global war on terrorism. Based on the framework of US joint doctrine, the supporting principles of fourth generation operations are developed. This requires the introduction of the principle of Population Perception.     

The sources of the Australian tradition in irregular warfare, 1942–1974

This article had its genesis in a background study for the development of a new Australian Army counter-insurgency doctrine. Archival research showed that the Australian counter-insurgency doctrine employed in such post-1945 conflicts as Burma, Malaya, Borneo and Vietnam originated in the jungle campaigns of the South West Pacific Area during World War II. The historical record also showed that the Army's counter-insurgency doctrine, as with its World War II-jungle warfare doctrine, was a pragmatic amalgam of Australian experience and British doctrine. The article traces this process through the development of a series of doctrine manuals. It also considers the contribution of key individuals to both counter-insurgency theory and practice. This distinctively Australian approach to the development of doctrine was responsible for producing a highly successful manual, The Division in Battle: Pamphlet No. 11, Counter-Revolutionary Warfare (DIB 11), which the Army used during its involvement in Vietnam.     

Bush path to self-destruction: Charles Taylor and the Revolutionary United Front

This article explains the demise of Sierra Leone's Revolutionary United Front (RUF) rebellion. It argues that the main cause of this fate was the group's relationship with its primary sponsor, Charles Taylor. The RUF's dependency on Taylor's patronage, coupled with the rebellion's weak organisational endowments harmed the group's prospects of success. Based on original research, the article shows how Taylor used the RUF as a strategic instrument for his own regional interests, which led to the group's unravelling. More broadly, the article speaks about proxy warfare in Africa and how the relationship between resource flows and rebellion are not always beneficial to rebels as one might expect.     

Boko Haram’s increasingly sophisticated military threat

ABSTRACT

This paper evaluates Boko Haram’s military capabilities and details the process of how its standing army, driven by these capabilities, came to pose a phased threat between 2013 and 2015 in particular. This was a period when military fighting dominated the insurgency in north-east Nigeria. Whereas there is an abundance of literature on Boko Haram’s histories and the impact of its insurgency on north-east Nigeria, analysis of Boko Haram’s military campaigning is still deficient. Attempting to fill this gap, this paper uses field findings and battlefield case studies from north-east Nigeria to highlight how Boko Haram’s overt front – its standing army – came to supplant its guerrilla operations as the main security threat to the frontier area.

This pivot towards military fighting, for a group initially composed of a few ragtag combatants, on the surface might seem surprising. Yet, whereas Boko Haram may lack the popular support required for ‘people’s war’, classic insurgency theories nevertheless hold some explanatory power for this deliberate shift: away from guerrilla warfare as the expedient of the weaker side, and towards the use of a large standing army of locals to swarm, and sometimes successfully overrun, state forces.     

外军无人水面艇发展现状与趋势

文章介绍了美、以等国军用无人水面艇的发展现状,探讨了无人水面艇的典型作战应用,在此基础之上分析了外军无人水面艇的发展特点和趋势。     

网络战对作战的影响及对策

网络战作为一种新的作战形式引入作战领域,越来越受到各国重视,并已成为世界各国争相研究和重点建设的作战样式。文章从网络战的特点入手,针对网络战对作战影响进行了探讨,并从构建网络体系、研发武器装备、重视人才培养和加强训练演练四个方面阐述了强化军队网络战的对策措施。     

分布式海战场资源规划问题

分布式海战场资源规划是实现海上联合作战的关键。首先分析了海战场资源的分类及战场资源规划特点,建立了基于多智能体的分布式海战场资源规划系统,深入分析了该规划系统的组成和功能,并构造了相应的资源规划结构模型,为实现定性和定量相结合的海战场资源规划与管理提供了一条有效的途径。     

The United States' retreat from the Middle East and pivot to the Far East is likely to intensify

A combination of threat analysis and “subterranean forces” (such as proclivities to fight conventional wars as compared to asymmetric ones) leads the USA to prefer focusing on the threats from China rather than those emanating from the Middle East.