Defence R&D expenditure: The crowding-out hypothesis

The impact of defence expenditure on the economy has been widely studied through different types of models. However, the results from these studies have not reached definitive conclusions, and have left a gap in the analysis of the impact of defence R&D expenditure at the economy level. Defence R&D has specific characteristics, which lead to market failures: public good, high risk and uncertainty, national security. Also, defence R&D creates two types of externalities: negative (crowding-out), and positive (spin-off). Crowding-out is the major economic debate about defence R&D. This paper analyses the crowding-out hypothesis by applying three types of models for the UK case: supply, demand, and demand-supply models. From these three models the most reliable is chosen and applied to the individual cases of France, Germany, Japan and USA. The paper also reports the results for the pooled data of these five countries, and for four error component models. The results from estimating such models shed light on the defence R&D crowding-out hypothesis.     

The Demand for Turkish Defence Expenditure

Although a number of studies concerning Turkish defence-growth relation have been published in recent years, little attention is given the demand for Turkish defence expenditure. This is an important issue for understanding which variables contribute to the determination of the demand for military expenditure. However, it is difficult to develop a general theory or a standard empirical approach for the determination of the demand military expenditure. This study models and estimates the demand for Turkish defence expenditure for the period 1951-1998 using autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration (ARDL) following the methodology outlined in Pesaran and Shin (1999). This procedure can be applied regardless of the stationary properties of the variables in the sample and allows for inferences on long-run estimates, which is not possible under alternative cointegration procedures. The findings suggest that Turkish defence spending is determined by NATO's defence spending, Greece's defence spending and some security considerations.     

Military expenditure and economic growth: peru 1970–1996

The present study examines the effects of military expenditure on growth in Peru in the period from 1970 to 1996. By using a Deger‐type Simultaneous Equations Model it is possible to break up the net effect into supply‐ and demand‐side influences. The former consist of positive externalities of defence activities on the other sectors of the economy, while the latter can be described as crowding‐out of civilian investment. Estimations find the supply‐side effects to be insignificantly different from zero, while the crowding‐out effect of defence spending is significant and substantial. It is thereby established that defence expenditure has a negative overall effect on economic growth in Peru. Although several caveats – including specification problems of the Deger model, the quality of the data used, a relatively small sample and the presence of autocorrelation in the estimations – must be considered, these results turn out to be quite robust with respect to estimation methods (3SLS, 2SLS, OLS) and slight modifications to the model. They are also consistent with previous empirical findings from other countries and cross sectional studies.     

舰船综合仿真标准体系探究

针对目前国内外仿真标准缺乏和零乱的现状对舰船综合仿真标准体系进行深入分析和研究,首先分析了国内外现状、我国舰船仿真领域的不足和仿真标准发展需求,接着对舰船综合仿真标准体系的技术思路、研究方法等做了初步性的探索,建立了舰船综合仿真技术参考模型,并据此初步建立了舰船综合仿真系统标准体系框架,用以指导制定具体的标准。     

基于控制环的作战网络对抗模型

战争的手段和用兵之道总是随着技术的发展而变化,借鉴网络中心战的思想,深入分析了分布式作战网络的生成机制,及其对抗行为的微观和宏观机制。在此基础上,针对信息时代由信息优势获得作战效能的本质特点,提出了控制环和行动节奏的概念,刻画不同对抗体系信息效能的差异;进而提出了作战网络的对抗模型和度量作战网络的效能指标。通过仿真实验分析,对比研究了不同网络结构(传统型、协同式和分布式)、不同攻击模式(随机打击、指控优先打击和度优先打击)对交战过程和结果的影响。     

基于系统动力学的导弹体系作战效能仿真研究

简要介绍了系统动力学的概念;分析了导弹作战体系的构成以及各子系统对体系的贡献效能;针对导弹体系对抗作战效能仿真,运用系统动力学方法,建立了导弹体系对抗的系统动力学模型;并对在不同对策条件下的仿真结果进行了分析,为导弹体系结构优化、体系能力的提高提供了依据。     

基于专家系统的防化保障预案评估研究

人工智能技术在众多领域获得广泛应用．为满足现代战争对防化指挥手段的现代化要求,针对不易量化的防化指挥决策问题的评估,提出了构建知识库并应用模糊推理机制建立专家系统,据此进行防化保障预案的评估选优方法,并对该方法的求解过程进行了探讨．     

基于专业、学科、基地三位一体的教育学科师资队伍建设实践

师资队伍建设是学科建设的核心任务,石河子大学师范学院基于专业、学科、基地三位一体的教育学科师资队伍建设实践取得了一定的实效。通过培育专业意识、提高专业教学能力、提供专业发展空间不断锤炼教育学科教师的专业素质和能力;依托学科凝练研究方向和集聚研究队伍,开展科研训练提高教师教育研究的能力;搭建教育研究与活动的优质平台,服务成果展示与转化,提升有效服务社会的能力。     

晃动基座下捷联惯导的初始对准研究

为了降低车体振动对惯性器件输出的影响,运用小波域阈值滤波对信号进行预滤波,介绍一种初始对准非线性误差模型,并运用H∞滤波完成初始对准。针对坦克发动的情况,分别在固定怠速和不同怠速的情况下进行大量重复实验,实验结果表明：该方法能够有效完成坦克发动下初始对准,具有良好的重复性和稳定性。