AHP-SWOT分析法在控制下交付行动方案决策中的应用

控制下交付作为打击毒品犯罪尤其是跨国有组织毒品犯罪的重要措施和手段,已发挥越来越重要的作用,是其他缉毒措施和手段无法取代的。但是,由于毒品犯罪的集团化、国际化、种类多元化程度加剧,使得控制下交付的复杂性与不确定性越来越明显。鉴于此,将AHP植入SWOT分析法中,以定性和定量相结合的科学方法解决控制下交付行动方案的优选问题,对提高控制下交付的成功率具有重要意义。     

Dynamic coordination of production planning and sales admission control in the presence of a spot market

We consider the decision‐making problem of dynamically scheduling the production of a single make‐to stock (MTS) product in connection with the product's concurrent sales in a spot market and a long‐term supply channel. The spot market is run by a business to business (B2B) online exchange, whereas the long‐term channel is established by a structured contract. The product's price in the spot market is exogenous, evolves as a continuous time Markov chain, and affects demand, which arrives sequentially as a Markov‐modulated Poisson process (MMPP). The manufacturer is obliged to fulfill demand in the long‐term channel, but is able to rein in sales in the spot market. This is a significant strategic decision for a manufacturer in entering a favorable contract. The profitability of the contract must be evaluated by optimal performance. The current problem, therefore, arises as a prerequisite to exploring contracting strategies. We reveal that the optimal strategy of coordinating production and sales is structured by the spot price dependent on the base stock and sell‐down thresholds. Moreover, we can exploit the structural properties of the optimal strategy to conceive an efficient algorithm. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Optimal control of a production‐inventory system with both backorders and lost sales

We consider the optimal control of a production inventory‐system with a single product and two customer classes where items are produced one unit at a time. Upon arrival, customer orders can be fulfilled from existing inventory, if there is any, backordered, or rejected. The two classes are differentiated by their backorder and lost sales costs. At each decision epoch, we must determine whether or not to produce an item and if so, whether to use this item to increase inventory or to reduce backlog. At each decision epoch, we must also determine whether or not to satisfy demand from a particular class (should one arise), backorder it, or reject it. In doing so, we must balance inventory holding costs against the costs of backordering and lost sales. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use it to characterize the structure of the optimal policy. We show that the optimal policy can be described by three state‐dependent thresholds: a production base‐stock level and two order‐admission levels, one for each class. The production base‐stock level determines when production takes place and how to allocate items that are produced. This base‐stock level also determines when orders from the class with the lower shortage costs (Class 2) are backordered and not fulfilled from inventory. The order‐admission levels determine when orders should be rejected. We show that the threshold levels are monotonic (either nonincreasing or nondecreasing) in the backorder level of Class 2. We also characterize analytically the sensitivity of these thresholds to the various cost parameters. Using numerical results, we compare the performance of the optimal policy against several heuristics and show that those that do not allow for the possibility of both backordering and rejecting orders can perform poorly.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

基于混合粒子群优化的多目标决策新方法

多目标优化问题中的一个关键在于合理地评判各有效解的优劣。通过引入灰色系统理论中灰色关联度的概念作为评判准则,结合粒子群优化算法进行有约束多目标规划问题的研究。提出了一种新的不可行解的保留策略,进化过程中以此策略保留适量的不可行解,有利于增强对约束边界附近可能的最优解的搜索,同时,针对粒子群优化算法的容易陷入局部最优的缺点,实现了以粒子群优化为载体的混合算法:即对全局极值邻域进一步混沌搜索寻优。仿真结果表明改进的算法对多目标决策问题是有效的。     

基于SD方法的作战指挥决策系统效能分析模型

指挥决策系统是一个非线性的复杂系统,用一般的解析方法难以对其进行效能评估。在分析指挥决策系统构成的基础上,根据指挥决策的4个要素,建立了指挥决策系统的评估指标体系;综合考虑战术和技术指标,从指挥员影响度,指挥机关影响度,指挥信息系统影响度和决策信息影响度4个方面建立了指挥决策系统效能分析模型,前两项指标可以采用层次分析法等方法确定其效能值,后两项指标利用系统动力学方法,结合实际作战的具体战术指标建模,实现了效能值的动态评估分析。     

不确定熵证据合成法在防空兵火力配系评估中的应用

防空火力配系是根据任务、敌情、地形和火器的性能,对参战的各种火器作适当的配置和分工所构成的火力系统,防空火力配系是典型的多属性决策问题,而多属性决策问题中存在着属性评价的不确定性问题,而证据理论是典型的多属性融合理论,它的天生缺陷就是不相容证据合成带来的问题,为此引入基于不确定熵证据合成的多属性决策理论,能够很好地克服上述不足,用来对防空火力配系进行优化,可以解决多目标决策中的信息不完全性,效果良好.     

航母舰载机对空防御作战出航保障指挥决策建模

基于Agent的航母舰载机对空防御作战出航保障指挥决策系统,由数据部分和Agent组织部分组成.前者又含数据库、模型库、知识库、相关管理系统和MIS.后者包括五大决策Agent,通过界面Agent与用户进行交互,而与数据部分的交互则由DB监理Agent统一完成.对于系统内决策Agent的设计,可首先针对五大决策Agent的模板进行设计,再对其功能层进行实例化.     

弹道平面交叉算法

在飞弹武器使用中,进行弹道分配,通常要采用避免平面交叉方法优化弹道分配结果.但由于弹道分组限制的存在,经常出现无法完成分配的现象.针对这一问题,在建立数学模型的基础上,提出了一种新的优选策略.该策略优先考虑是否可以完成分配,采用从靶点到起射点、飞弹这样一个逆序的分配过程,有效解决了该问题.     

水面舰艇对鱼雷防御决策仿真分析

如何对来袭鱼雷进行防御成为水面舰艇对潜防御作战的重中之重.根据世界主要海军国家普遍装备的火箭助飞声诱饵的使用原理、基本战技性能,结合"线导+声自导"鱼雷的作战过程,仔细分析了水面舰艇对抗鱼雷的作战态势,通过大量的仿真计算得出火箭助飞声诱饵的最佳使用方式以及舰艇的机动方法.     

基于熵权的导弹型号论证方案评价模型

针对导弹型号论证决策中的部分属性信息具有模糊性,给出了一种基于熵权的模糊信息多目标决策方案评估方法。该方法在只有模糊判断矩阵而没有专家权重的情况下,通过多指标的模糊评价矩阵的熵权计算,得到各属性信息提供的有用信息量的程度;再通过各方案与理想点的距离,得出了可信度较高的优选方案。