基于模糊语言对军事物流效益评估的多属性决策

军事物流是影响军事行动成败的重要因素,军事物流的效益与部队战斗力的形成与再生密切相关．为了更好的对军事物流效益进行评估,对于评估指标属性值,利用三角模糊数进行定量表示,结合离差最大化原理对三角模糊属性值的主客观权重进行修正．接着,利用多属性决策中的TOPSIS方法对军事物流效益进行评估．最后,结合实例说明该方法综合考虑主客观因素,有助于进行军事物流方案的选择,有效降低指挥员决策的主观随意性．     

Comparison of rank aggregation methods based on inherent ability

Ranking is a common task for selecting and evaluating alternatives. In the past few decades, combining rankings results from various sources into a consensus ranking has become an increasingly active research topic. In this study, we focus on the evaluation of rank aggregation methods. We first develop an experimental data generation method, which can provide ground truth ranking for alternatives based on their “inherent ability.” This experimental data generation method can generate the required individual synthetic rankings with adjustable accuracy and length. We propose characterizing the effectiveness of rank aggregation methods by calculating the Kendall tau distance between the aggregated ranking and the ground truth ranking. We then compare four classical rank aggregation methods and present some useful findings on the relative performances of the four methods. The results reveal that both the accuracy and length of individual rankings have a remarkable effect on the comparison results between rank aggregation methods. Our methods and results may be helpful to both researchers and decision‐makers.     

Augmented nested sampling for stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous uncertainty

We propose a novel simulation‐based approach for solving two‐stage stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous (decision dependent) uncertainty. The proposed augmented nested sampling approach recasts the stochastic optimization problem as a simulation problem by treating the decision variables as random. The optimal decision is obtained via the mode of the augmented probability model. We illustrate our methodology on a newsvendor problem with stock‐dependent uncertain demand both in single and multi‐item (news‐stand) cases. We provide performance comparisons with Markov chain Monte Carlo and traditional Monte Carlo simulation‐based optimization schemes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.     

How to deal with consumers who group to request a discount?

We investigate operations impacts of consumer‐initiated group buying (CGB), whereby consumers voluntarily form buying groups to negotiate bulk deals with retailers. This differs from regular purchasing whereby consumers visit retailers individually and pay posted prices. Upon the visit by group consumers, a retailer decides to forgo or satisfy their demand in its entirety. Turned down by a retailer, group consumers continue to visit other retailers. In the case where their group effort fails to conclude a deal, some group consumers switch to individual purchasing provided they receive a non‐negative utility by doing so. Even after a successful group event, the group consumers who forgo the event out of utility concern may switch to individual purchasing as well. Retailer competition, group size, and the chance that group consumers switch to individual purchasing upon unsatisfaction are crucial to how retailers adjust operations to deal with CGB. With retailer competition, the rise of CGB results in every consumer paying the same reduced price when group size is small but makes group consumers pay more than by purchasing individually when group size is large. This has mixed consequences on the profits for retailers in both absolute and relative terms.     

基于黑板推理与分层规划的CGF模糊决策模型

计算机生成兵力具有智能行为是其最大的特点,也是当前研究的重点和难点。为了使计算机生成兵力决策的智能化水平有所提高,把复杂的决策过程进行分层规划,将各层中决策子任务的求解策略、推理策略与黑板推理方法中的多任务协同工作原理相结合,构造了基于黑板推理的计算机生成兵力决策模型。同时,也将模糊理论应用到决策模型中。有效地提高了计算机生成兵力的智能水平。     

美军航母战斗群空袭火力对地攻击效能分析

以美军航母战斗大队标准编成为例,简要分析了美军航母战斗群的空袭火力构成.进而分别建立了机载普通对地攻击弹药和巡航导弹、空地导弹对地面目标的毁伤能力的模型.然后以此为基础,从空袭兵器的突防概率、对目标的发现概率、对各类目标的毁伤概率和空袭某一目标所需的兵力四个方面,对航母战斗群空袭火力体系的对地攻击效能进行了深入研究,并建立相应的数学模型.最后根据在历次战争中得到的经验数据,对美军航母战斗群空袭火力对地攻击效能进行了计算,并分析了计算结果,为科学判断敌情提供了依据.     

预警机指挥多机群空战的协同战术决策

分析了预警机指挥下的多机群协同空战的战术决策方法,建立起了它的战术编队、威胁评估以及目标分配模型,并进行了仿真计算,结果表明此战术决策方法对于提高多机群协同空战的作战效能有着显著的作用,对于未来无人作战飞机多编队协同作战也具有很好的参考价值.     

基于信息优势的决策能力分析

随着信息优势评估的不断深入,信息优势支持下的决策优势能力,已成为C4ISR系统作战效能评估的又一重要研究内容.从决策优势的基本概念入手,通过分析决策优势与信息优势的关系,提出了决策周期时间、决策质量和决策循环速度三个衡量决策优势的基本度量,并结合典型作战样式和信息优势的准确性、完备性指标,分析了这些度量的基本构成和量化方法.通过兰彻斯特方程,导出了一种可用于仿真评估的决策优势能力量化公式,进而指明了夺取决策优势应采取的主要措施.     

团体心理干预对改善维和警察培训学员心理应对能力的效果研究

良好的心理应对能力是维和警察有效遂行维和任务的心理保障。为探讨团体心理干预对维和警察心理应对能力的改善效果,对32名维和警察培训学员分成实验组和控制组进行干预实验。经干预,实验组成员身心状况、应对方式、社会支持有明显改善,自尊状况亦有显著变化。说明团体心理干预对改善培训学员综合心理健康状况、增强其心理应对能力有一定效果。     

合作学习理论在外语教学中的应用——以“澳大利亚课堂教学”为例

在阐释合作学习理论的基础上,分析了合作式教学的基本特征,并以澳大利亚英语课堂教学活动为例,探讨如何运用合作互动型模式提高外语学习效果。该理论的应用为改进学生英语课堂参与行为及参与模式提供教学启示。