始终处于大气层内飞行的TBM被动段弹道预测

对大气层内飞行的TBM弹道进行预测时,需要根据不同的应用要求,在求解精度允许范围内用近似方法对六自由度运动进行简化,获得简便实用的弹道预测方法。在假设获得TBM被动段弹道初始位置和速度参数的基础上,首先构建简便实用的处于大气层内飞行的TBM被动段抛物线弹道模型;然后将雷达测得的TBM被动段弹道初始位置和速度参数作为初始条件,对弹道方程采用精度较高的龙格-库塔法进行求解,相应得出被动段弹道上各点及落点的位置和速度参数,进一步确定出落点位置的地理位置经纬度。在某地空攻防对抗仿真项目中应用表明,弹道模型及其求解方法可应用于实战或较为逼真的仿真系统中。     

防空武器系统总体效能的灰色层次评价模型

以某型防空导弹为例,首先建立防空武器系统总体效能评价指标,并采用效用函数法进行指标量化。在此基础上,采用AHP法和Dephi法确定权重系数,采用灰色方法计算综合评估值,从而建立一种综合灰色系统理论、AHP法和ADC法三者优点的灰色层次评价模型。最后对该型防空导弹进行仿真分析。结果证明,灰色层次评价法较AHP法和ADC法具有更大的合理性。     

基于EMP环境下的导弹作战防护对策分析

EMP武器以其极强的破坏性在现代战争中展现出了显著的作战效能。为了提高EMP环境下导弹作战防护能力,简单分析了EMP的产生过程,阐述了EMP武器在作战运用中的干扰、软(硬)杀伤的作用机理,研究了EMP环境对导弹及测试设备、指挥系统、计算机系统的影响,提出了导弹作战中对EMP的防护应采取设置法拉第笼、可靠接地、滤波等防护对策。     

一种通信装备系统间干扰评估的新方法

提出了通信装备系统间互扰评估的一种低计算复杂度分析方法。比特差错概率是对数字通信接收机性能进行评估的重要指标,而由比特差错概率(BEP)表征的系统间互扰的情况计算非常复杂,因此需要合理简化。通常假设干扰为加性高斯白噪声,但有些情况下这种假设并不合理。而使用高阶统计量峰度值来估计的方法可以处理调制干扰信号也可以处理脉冲干扰信号,综合了加性高斯白噪声近似和峰度测量以达到对数字通信设备间互扰分析更合理精确。     

弹道导弹防御中多目标拦截的策略

多目标拦截是弹道导弹防御的重大难题,也是目前美国导弹防御系统所遇到的最大的技术难点。在将多目标问题分为单弹头攻击和多弹头攻击2类问题的基础上,结合美国的相关研究计划,分别针对核爆炸防御、助推段防御、先进的目标识别器和多拦截器防御等多目标拦截策略进行了分析研究。     

论化学灾害事故处置的指挥决策及其实施

化学灾害事故处置的指挥决策及其实施水平尤为重要,在分析当前指挥决策存在不足的基础上,从完善指挥决策组织、拓展依据、突出决策重点、加强人员装备,以及科学处理一些关系等方面进行了探讨。     

永磁直线同步电机矢量控制系统建模与实现

针对永磁直线同步电机(PMLSM)的特点,建立PMLSM在dq两相坐标系下的数学模型。介绍了永磁直线同步电机矢量控制系统并给出了硬件和软件的设计思想。通过对控制电流以及电机位置的实验分析,验证了所研究的基于矢量控制的永磁直线同步电机矢量控制方法的有效性。     

基于熵理论的战场情报评估方法

熵是度量信息有效性和可靠性的重要理论工具,分析了信息熵和条件熵,并深入研究了熵作为不确定性的度量在战场情报中的评估应用,最后举例说明了既要考虑信息的价值又要考虑其风险程度这一新的情报分析方法,使得决策过程透明化,降低了决策的风险。     

Optimal maintenance policies for a safety‐critical system and its deteriorating sensor

We consider the integrated problem of optimally maintaining an imperfect, deteriorating sensor and the safety‐critical system it monitors. The sensor's costless observations of the binary state of the system become less informative over time. A costly full inspection may be conducted to perfectly discern the state of the system, after which the system is replaced if it is in the out‐of‐control state. In addition, a full inspection provides the opportunity to replace the sensor. We formulate the problem of adaptively scheduling full inspections and sensor replacements using a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) model. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted costs associated with system operation, full inspection, system replacement, and sensor replacement. We show that the optimal policy has a threshold structure and demonstrate the value of coordinating system and sensor maintenance via numerical examples. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 399–417, 2017     

Terrorism as Method in Nepali Maoist Insurgency, 1996–2016

During the period 1996–2006, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) waged overt people’s war to seize state power and institute a new order that realized the party’s understanding of ‘New Democracy’ as posited by Mao Tse-tung. Contextual shifts led to a crucial strategic turning point in September 2005, when the Maoists agreed to a united front with estranged legal parties to oust the monarchy and establish a republic. Though touted as acceptance of political reintegration, the move was tactical rather than strategic. The party had no intention of supporting a parliamentary version of democracy and thus, 2006–2016, engaged in a covert effort to seize power. Central to this effort was the paramilitary Young Communist League (YCL), the members of which responded to inflammatory party verbiage and exhortations with attacks upon rival political actors. These attacks, academically and legally, were terrorism and offered a salient illustration of intra-state unrestricted warfare. Ultimately, organizational, national, and regional circumstances caused the main Maoist movement to move decisively away from its covert approach. By that time, however, radical splinters had embraced the use of terrorism against rival political actors, creating a situation whereby local politics is yet a dangerous endeavor in certain areas and at certain times.