物元贝叶斯网络模型研究

分析了贝叶斯网络建模过程中的缺陷,结合物元理论,提出了物元贝叶斯网络理论.该理论能够融合二者的优点,既可处理复杂系统中的不确定性,又能充分利用系统中的所有信息,因此能够更好地进行复杂系统评价.     

机载视觉自主着陆过程中的跑道提取方法

跑道直线参数的准确提取,是机载视觉完成自主着陆过程的重要条件.首先在边缘图像的基础上利用相位编组算法,得到当前边缘图像中大量的线段,根据线段之间的角度,端点距离,以及线段两边的灰度均值,设计了一套规则来定量描述线段之间的亲近性,根据亲近值,将处于同一直线上的短线段首尾连接成长线段.取最长的若干条线段待选,再利用跑道区域的先验知识,主要是跑道内外的灰度对比信息,将位于同一条跑道的两条边缘上的线段识别出来.大量的实际图像结果验证了算法的有效性.     

数字化部队作战能力评估指标体系

为加深对数字化部队作战能力的研究,完善数字化部队的编制体制,以系统科学与工程理论为指导,针对现代战争系统的四大要素对现代战争全过程进行分析,构建数字化部队战争系统模型分解图,将现代战争系统分解成部队与武器子系统、电子信息子系统、决策指挥子系统、后勤保障子系统.最后对各子系统的能力指标内涵及构成进行了详细的解释,并对其获取和度量方法进行了总结.     

一致光滑Banach空间中一类非线性算子方程的解

证明了一个新的锐角原理,在不使用连续性条件的情况下,给出了在一致光滑Banach空间中一类非线性算子方程的可解性定理。     

灰色理论GRA模型在舰船生命力论证中的应用

运用灰色系统理论中的灰色关联分析法对舰船生命力进行了综合评判,建立了在不同设计方案中的优选模型,并以舰艇动力系统的设计为例,运用GRA对其进行优化选型。结果分析表明,此方法简单易行,结果准确可靠,可为系统设计方案的选优提供理论依据。     

空天防御作战规划问题研究

从技术与作战结合的角度,系统分析空天防御作战系统和对抗特点等问题,构建了"态势组态—目标排序—目标分配—冲突动态最优预测"新型作战规划方法,提出"博弈控制理论与方法",论述了空天防御作战规划方法论。对空天防御作战规划理论研究有一定参考价值,为发展空天防御作战规划系统提供了研究思路和技术支撑。     

基于前景理论和证据推理的混合型多属性决策方法

针对属性权重完全未知的混合型多属性决策问题,提出一种基于前景理论和证据推理的决策方法。通过直觉模糊数对精确数、区间数和语言变量3种混合型属性的决策信息进行统一,根据前景理论对决策信息进行转化;提出基于直觉模糊熵与相似度的属性可靠性评估方法,结合属性重要度确定属性权重;采用证据推理算法集结属性信息,得到方案的综合前景值,并以此进行方案排序。算例分析结果表明,所提方法具有较强的区分能力,能够有效降低决策结果的不确定性,对混合型多属性决策问题具有较好的适用性。     

The struggle of a Kantian power in a Lockean world – German leadership in security and defence policy

ABSTRACT

German security and defence policy has undergone substantial transformation. This transformation requires an unprecedented level of political leadership, suggesting that Germany needs to solve the dilemma of how to supply leadership to increasingly demanding partners. What are the conditions under which German leadership can unfold in security and defence policy? To what degree do German role-conceptions of international agency and role-expectations of German leadership coincide? What kind of leadership outputs are produced? This study offers a comprehensive analysis of German security and defence policy in terms of supply (role conceptions) and demand (role expectations). We outline three leadership role conceptions present in the German strategic debate, which we then assess in the context of the Wendtian theory of cultures of anarchy. We then analyse Berlin's leadership in terms of outputs via the case study on Anchor Army and the Framework Nations Concept. We conclude that while Germany has tried to match leadership role expectations both rhetorically and in action, Berlin's leadership inputs have so far been insufficient. This has led to an imbalance in terms of role conceptions and expectations hampering effective German leadership in security and defence policy.     

Moving Beyond Population-Centric vs. Enemy-Centric Counterinsurgency

Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future. Recent experiences with counterinsurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan offer many lessons for future counterinsurgents, but the discourse on the subject continues to be mired in a traditional dichotomy pitting population-centric approaches to counterinsurgency against enemy-centric approaches. Historical analysis suggests that this traditional dichotomy is not a sufficiently nuanced way to understand or plan for such operations. Instead, discussions of counterinsurgency should focus on two dimensions: actions (use of physical force vs. political or moral actions) and targets (active insurgents vs. insurgent support). This perspective divides the space of possible counterinsurgency efforts into four quadrants, suggesting that effective counterinsurgency campaigns find a balance of effort across the four quadrants that is well matched to the specific context.     

电磁轨道发射器动态发射过程的数值模拟

针对电磁轨道发射器动态发射过程的数值模拟问题,基于矢量磁位A和时间积分标量电位V,采用节点单元法,并选择运动坐标系描述运动问题,推导出动态发射下的电磁轨道发射器三维涡流场有限元离散方程。结合温度场控制方程,建立电磁轨道发射器的三维电磁-温度耦合有限元模型。针对一个电磁轨道发射器动态发射问题,对模型进行数值模拟,得到了动态发射下轨道及电枢的温度场分布特点及发射器电感梯度随时间的变化规律。计算结果表明,模型计算出的脉冲电流峰值、出口电流大小、出口速度等参数均与试验结果吻合较好,验证了所开发的有限元程序代码的正确性。