Iran’s Nuclear Fatwa: Analysis of a Debate

For more than a decade, Iran has been referring to a fatwa issued by its Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, proscribing nuclear weapons. The fatwa, however, not only failed to influence the process that led to the resolution of Iran’s nuclear crisis, but also has been met with a good deal of skepticism. The most commonly held suspicions about the credibility of the fatwa can be summed up in five central questions: (1) Has the nuclear fatwa actually been issued? (2) Does the fatwa apply to all the aspects of nuclear weapons including their production, possession and use? (3) What is the juridical status of the fatwa? (4) Was the nuclear fatwa issued only to deceive other nations? (5) Is the fatwa really irreversible? This article tries to answer these questions by providing a chronological review of the fatwa and analyzing all the relevant statements by Khamenei. The analysis is conducted against the background of Islamic principles, Shi’a jurisprudence and the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The article concludes that the fatwa is a credible religious decree and could indeed contribute to the cause of nuclear disarmament.     

固定翼反潜巡逻机及其作战效能分析

固定翼反潜巡逻机作为战役、战术反潜兵力,在现代海上军事斗争中发挥着极其重要的作用.首先研究了固定翼反潜巡逻机的系统构成、应召反潜的作战过程和特点,全面分析了影响固定翼反潜巡逻机作战效能的各因素,并在此基础上给出了固定翼反潜巡逻机的作战效能分析体系,提出了固定翼反潜巡逻机不同攻潜武器下的效能评估方法,最后通过仿真分析验证了方法的合理性与可行性.     

潜艇水下推算舰载机作战时间动态计算模型

由于受探测手段的限制,水下潜艇对空中目标的威胁评估一直是研究难题.针对潜艇所能获得的各种信息,分析了舰载反潜直升机作战起飞影响因素、跳跃时间影响因素以及声纳定测时间影响因素,给出量化形式,构造出了潜艇水下推算舰载反潜直升机作战时间的动态计算模型,为潜艇定量评估潜在空中目标的威胁程度提供了合理的逻辑支持.     

潜射反舰导弹作战效能评估

基于潜射反舰导弹的特点,提出了潜射反舰导弹作战效能评估的方法.根据美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会(WSEIAC)提出的ADC模型,对系统效能的有效性A、可信赖性D和能力C进行了具体分析,建立了潜射反舰导弹作战效能的数学模型,并给出了算例分析,对潜射反舰导弹作战效能的提高有一定的指导意义.     

纯方位系统定位与跟踪的本载体最优轨线方程及其最优轨线

给出了纯方位系统在目标任意变速变向运动或不动情况下,目标定位与跟踪中的本载体确定性控制最优和次优轨线方程以及其最优轨线。这一结果是完全用解析方法得到的。     

舰艇核反应堆堆芯寿期的论证研究

服役年限是核舰艇可靠性要求的一个组成部分,影响其确定的一个主要因素是核动力装置反应堆的堆芯寿期。本文讨论了堆芯寿期与核舰艇服役年限的关系,在分析核燃料消耗的影响因素基础上建立其估计模型以供服役年限与堆芯寿期进行权衡,最后参考军情况,提出堆芯寿期的确定原则。     

潜艇导弹武器系统攻击海上目标的等概率阵位图

从弹上系统及艇面火控系统精度入手,对各级海情下使用不同攻击方式时,潜艇在不同距离、不同舷角对中小目标导弹攻击的命中概率进行了计算,并绘制了等概率阵位图,从而解决了使用阵位图直接查找潜艇处于不同攻击方式、不同海情下,在不同距离、不同舷角时导弹的命中概率问题,为潜艇部队作战既提供了理论上的依据,又提供了一种直观简便的辅助决策手段。     

潜艇纵向振动计算及振动特性

采用有限元方法建立了潜艇纵向振动分析有限元模型,求出了某艇在水面巡航状态的纵向振动模态.发现潜艇耐压壳纵向振动除具有典型的“活塞”式振动特征外,还具有众多与“一维梁”纵向振动不同的特性.     

现代常规动力潜艇电力推进装置的现状及发展分析

本文对近年来常规动力潜艇电力推进装置各主要组成部分的现状及发展趋势分别作了论述和分析,并介绍了各国目前正在试验的一些新型电力推进装置的概况及存在的问题,从中得出在本世纪末之前常规动力潜艇电力推进装置的结构模式。     

Antelope,Poseidon or a Hybrid: The Upgrading of the British Strategic Nuclear Deterrent, 1970–1974

It is the purpose of this article to illustrate how the British government reached its decision to upgrade the Polaris strategic nuclear deterrent in 1973. Using British and American documentation it is demonstrated that the strategic imperatives for upgrading Polaris were fundamental to the project. Existing accounts of the Polaris Improvement Project, however, have not given the appropriate attention to the wider US–UK political differences in this period. By doing so it is shown how in addition to the wider economic, strategic and political factors, this was of paramount significance in the Heath government opting for the ‘Super Antelope’ method in upgrading Polaris.1 ¹‘Super Antelope’ was the codename for the upgrade of Polaris. This was eventually changed to ‘Chevaline’. Peter Hennessy, Cabinets and the Bomb (Oxford: OUP 2007), 28–9. View all notes